ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

nhc must have hated having to put out that 5 am knowing what we know this thing is unlikely to be a ts coming across florida and could easily be whatever it is farther west...they had no choice but what a lousy position to be in putting out a forecast that will likely be wrong in terms of intensity and track..when you see them use the word continuity its a red flag

[Weatherboy1]

Can't believe after seeing how she looked yesterday afternoon how lousy Erika looks this morning. Models and intensity forecasts have been awful with this storm, except for those handful showing no intensification and potential dissipation. Crazy. At this point, I'll be surprised if she survives the day - especially if she crosses Hispanola.

Just the opinion of a semi educated amateur, listen to the experts

[rolltide]

First visible sat coming up soon. Should be able to see a little better what's going on this morning.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

That may be true CourierPR but looks like crap and is a TS in name only. That's my take. It hasn't even hit Dominican yet. Where is WXMAN57, I think 'It's Dead Jim' may be in order. In my opinion only!

In the NHC, I trust. With all others, I heed the personal forecast disclaimer.

and that is why I stated in my opinion only twice. I'm thinking my opinion will be right.

You may very well be right. Caneman, I'm not trying to bash here. My initial post was in regard to implying false information. When someone uses the word "remnants" that tells me that the storm has officially become a remnant low, which Erika has not.

[summersquall]

Breathing a cautious sign of relief this am. Bears watching still. A lot of dry air but also a lot of hot water.

[CourierPR]

nhc must have hated having to put out that 5 am knowing what we know this thing is unlikely to be a ts coming across florida and could easily be whatever it is farther west...they had no choice but what a lousy position to be in putting out a forecast that will likely be wrong in terms of intensity and track..when you see them use the word continuity its a red flag

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the word "continuity" was used in relation to track guidance not intensity.

[Gustywind]

Recap of TS Erika in Guadeloupe (datas...). Guadeloupe have back off the yellow level alert, back to green code meaning no threat.
For those who are interrested go on viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117486&hilit=&start=60
Gustywind

[caneman]

My take on reading the update was they think it's likely to dissapate

[caneman]

No worries CourierPR but for the record I never said remnants although it doesn't look far from it. Hispaniola will likely finish what is left. In my opinion only.

[N2FSU]

When is the next recon scheduled?

[sunnyday]

I am waiting for the dissipation today. Erika never even got "the look" of a wound up storm.

These statements are my opinion only. See the NHS or NWS for official predictions.

[CourierPR]

"Strong shear is expected to continue or even increase during the
next day or so. The combination of the shear and interaction with
Hispaniola suggests that Erika is likely to weaken and could even
dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours." from 5 AM NHC Discussion

Note the words "likely to weaken" and "could even dissipate."

[CourierPR]

No worries CourierPR but for the record I never said remnants although it doesn't look far from it. Hispaniola will likely finish what is left. In my opinion only.

I know, someone else used "remnants."

[Gustywind]

My US friends, let's hope that ERIKA continue to weaken, brininging no immediate or direct threat for anybody on its path. She has already create too much disaster, time to have a rest with this one Be blessed my friends, we will see.

[stormlover2013]

Erika looks bad bad this morning

[BobHarlem]

Erika is going down as a rainmaker after Dominica and what's going on right now. If this mornings GFS model verifies and keeps it over north/central Florida through Labor Day Weekend, it'll be unprecedented rains there.

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

Storm relative 1km live loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL052015&starting_image=2015AL05_1KMSRVIS_201508271930.GIF

[jhpigott]

long range PR radar looks like center is just south of Mona Passage

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[tolakram]

Here's a longer saved radar loop