ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFDL brushes FL then sends a cat 8 into NC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't see how this can even be a possible model solution, much less plausible. Presumes no troughing or shear, and develops this from get go. But if this does get east of the FL peninsula, we do have a possibility of some development. That seems to be some consensus on that.

[tolakram]

06Z HWRF

South Florida landfall, then Georgia landfall.

[Dean4Storms]

06Z HWRF brings a TS into SE FL.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=97

Looks like southern PBC...

It looks like it would have to start making a more WNW to NW turn now in order for this track to verify. I don't see it with the unorganization and the MLC still displaced to the SE.

[Dean4Storms]

These models keep trying to steer it by the mid levels and its just not happening. It looks like it is staying with the Low Level Flow and unless strong convection forms quickly once it gets to the other side of Hispaniola to develop a stacked system it is going to keep moving further westward in my opinion with the Trough over the Gulf splitting and then retrograding westward!

[CourierPR]

Could Erika do what Cleo did in 1964 and cross eastern Cuba, then turn north toward Florida?

[northjaxpro]

Could Erika do what Cleo did in 1964 and cross eastern Cuba, then turn north toward Florida?

Right now, that may be a possible scenario.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z Navgem splits the state looks to strengthen a bit after landfall in everglades.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=25

[OuterBanker]

Apparently we have to return the crown to the Euro. But, I don't think they ever lost it to begin with.

[tolakram]

Apparently we have to return the crown to the Euro. But, I don't think they ever lost it to begin with.

Pattern is what we've noticed over the last 2 years IMO. Longer range euro gets it right, mid range wrong, then short range back to the earlier solutions.

Assuming, of course, it actually gets it right.

[Jevo]

The takeaway also could be that the 0z runs were killing it off to a point and we actually have something showing up on the 6z runs. That gives drought-buster a new meaning if the GFS verifies.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Track Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[Frank P]

Those Bam brothers just don't give up do they? hehe

[chris_fit]

Those Bam brothers just don't give up do they? hehe

I'm pretty sure they've been doing better than most other models with Erika

[Stormcenter]

They may be on to something if this weakens into a wave so don't laugh. IMO

Those Bam brothers just don't give up do they? hehe

[jaxfladude]

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I am not liking the models of this morning that want to soak NE FLORIDA!

[Frank P]

They may be on to something if this weakens into a wave so don't laugh. IMO

Those Bam brothers just don't give up do they? hehe

Stormcenter, it was just tongue in cheek.. and yes you never know which one will actually come to fruition, but they sure have been pretty consistent as the western outlier...

[Jevo]

12z Intensity Guidance

It's of note that none of the models, which take land interaction into account kill the storm over the entire DR... A broad, fast moving, weak storm now may be the reasoning.

[caneman]

Outbanker,
I'm not real sure where you get that the Euro got it right. They have been all over the place just like the other models. None are performing well during this El Nino season.

[NDG]

I am dismissing both the GFS and HWRF 06z model runs, they seem to move Erika across Hispaniola way too fast and too far north..