ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[caneman]

Apparently we have to return the crown to the Euro. But, I don't think they ever lost it to begin with.

Pattern is what we've noticed over the last 2 years IMO. Longer range euro gets it right, mid range wrong, then short range back to the earlier solutions.

Assuming, of course, it actually gets it right.

Agreed,
The have been all over the board just as the other models have. Flip flopping between solutions. None of the models are doing well on track or intensity and are flip flopping all over the place.. The El Nino season is giving them fits.

[petit_bois]

Trend has been west for days now. west west west. Pay attention to the trend GOM'ers.

[Steve]

I'm sure someone posted, but GFDL 06z rides up the east coast, bombs, peaks around 120 knots and pressure to 934.8. before hitting around Jacksonville/Morehead City.

While nothing should be ruled out yet, I personally don't believe it. GFDL has been repeatedly off on this system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm sure someone posted, but GFDL 06z rides up the east coast, bombs, peaks around 120 knots and pressure to 934.8. before hitting around Jacksonville/Morehead City.

While nothing should be ruled out yet, I personally don't believe it. GFDL has been repeatedly off on this system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

I think the GFDL has taken over the CMC as the new "crazy uncle"...If the GFDL was an actor it would be Steve Buscemi.

[stormlover2013]

I don't think erika can get anymore west of Mississippi, trough is to strong!!!!!! just my opinion

[SouthFLTropics]

It's obvious at this point that the models are doing very poorly with Erika in the short term, much less out to 48, 72, hours, etc. I think the big question to ask right now is what are they missing that is leading them to be so off target...especially in the short term.

SFT

[Stormcenter]

Anything is possible but right now I would agree with you.

I don't think erika can get anymore west of Mississippi, trough is to strong!!!!!! just my opinion

[BensonTCwatcher]

GFDL looks to quickly break up the center and reform it North of Hispanola. I don't see that happening with the more west movement. Pressures are going to have to be relatively low with a lot of vorticity left for this to end up north of the island I think. If it does, in 48 hours this could develop well with a track keeping the center east of the land mass of FL.

[stormlover2013]

sfltropics, models have a hard time with troughs during this time of the year with the strength wise and how fast it can move out, if its not as strong then it will go towards florida panhandle or Mississippi , if its strong then it will be on the east of Florida if its really strong then its east coast, if its not strong and moves out quick then its around La, if the trough wasn't there then more than likely it would be a texas hit, models will get a good grasp on it today and tonight with the trough.

[BigB0882]

Troughs move out and retrograde quite often and the models don't pick up on it until very close to real time. If that happens then North GOM is in play but I don't think it would be anything other than a sheared mess and a good bit of rain.

[stormlover2013]

BigB u are exactly right, but I will say this if it gets to the north gom that's just more time for it to develop and that won't be good, but I just don't think the trough will move out, this year has been a weird pattern

[BigB0882]

BigB u are exactly right, but I will say this if it gets to the north gom that's just more time for it to develop and that won't be good, but I just don't think the trough will move out, this year has been a weird pattern

It does give it more time over water but the shear maps have not been good for the entire Gulf. The maps I have seen show 30 kts or higher over almost the entire GOM. I can't see anything strengthening in that environment and it would likely be very lopsided. Of course, shear forecasting is pretty unreliable as well.

[adam0983]

Does anyone still think Ericka can be a hurricane?

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone still think Ericka can be a hurricane?

yes..less than 20%

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Erika will be nothing more than a rain maker according to the models. Just an Opinion not a forecast.

[petit_bois]

Anyone know what Joe is saying today?

[tolakram]

Not much. Video this morning covered the screaming easterlies and how numerous tropical storms have gotten caught up in them.

[gatorcane]

Let's face it so far models have been HORRENDOUS for this system, even the ECMWF (yes even it had it tracking north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola). Just shows we are far from getting these models to where we want them to be.

[tolakram]

GFS 12z init. I'm extremely happy with this location.

[tolakram]

init