ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

So, if I am getting the gist of what I am reading here.... It is unlikely to survive the DR track and what is left is going to head up the west coast of Florida? Those of us on the east coast will get wet, but that is about it?

As I said, I think it will "survive", pretty much as it is now after crossing the DR. There's very little for the DR to disrupt with respect to a circulation. The main question is whether it will regenerate its circulation when it reaches the eastern Gulf Sunday night. Regardless, it will be a rain threat to Florida rather than a wind threat. Of course, there could be some squalls with gusty winds across the FL Peninsula. Such squalls could cause scattered power outages.

[Frank P]

Purely premature speculation on my part but it looks like to me the LLC to the north will mostly likely die out due to the imminent impact with the mountains, while the one south of it perhaps takes over, and attm almost hints of developing convection on top of it in the most recent vis sat loops.. and should remain south of the big island or at least the mountainous regions...

[Steve H.]

It;s south of Hispaniola at 80W. I believe it will more more WNW then NW over the next couple of days....still alive.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[asd123]

So, if I am getting the gist of what I am reading here.... It is unlikely to survive the DR track and what is left is going to head up the west coast of Florida? Those of us on the east coast will get wet, but that is about it?

As I said, I think it will "survive", pretty much as it is now after crossing the DR. There's very little for the DR to disrupt with respect to a circulation. The main question is whether it will regenerate its circulation when it reaches the eastern Gulf Sunday night. Regardless, it will be a rain threat to Florida rather than a wind threat. Of course, there could be some squalls with gusty winds across the FL Peninsula. Such squalls could cause scattered power outages.

My local meteorologist said that once it emerges north of Cuba/Hispaniola, it will be in a low shear environment and water near 90 degrees. So what do you think will happen next?

[tropicwatch]

HH heading towards the suspected llc. They are working it hard, might see change in wording from the NHC come next update.

[TheProfessor]

All I know is I've seen thunderstorms and super cells over land look better organized than Erika lol

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like it's starting to really interact with the mountains. Next 12 hours won't be pretty.

[Weatherboy1]

This kinda reminds me of Debby in 2000. She was supposed to be a significant hurricane threat to FL, approaching from the ESE. But she grazed the north coast of Hispanola, the MLC and LLC decoupled, and just like that, threat over. Here, models kept forecasting a turn to the N ... many kept forecasting strengthening ... yet all she has turned out to be is a big mess that very well could die thanks to that island again. I guess there's always the chance she regenerates quickly if she gets north of the islands and slows down. But not looking like it today.

Just my opinion as a semi-educated amateur ... listen to the experts.

[Frank2]

My local meteorologist said that once it emerges north of Cuba/Hispaniola, it will be in a low shear environment and water near 90 degrees. So what do you think will happen next?

That was the thinking of 2 days ago, also called media hype, by pushing the old advisory, even though the situation has changed...

[tolakram]

speed it up

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

I can't tell if the mid level feature is moving NW or not. If it is then the I think the LLC's south of DR will die, otherwise this is still moving west IMO.

[poof121]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time=

Sure is a lot of low level convergence under the convection. Another LLC trying to spin up?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank P]

speed it up

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

I can't tell if the mid level feature is moving NW or not. If it is then the I think the LLC's south of DR will die, otherwise this is still moving west IMO.

No doubt in my mind the LLC south of DR will die, only question I have will the mid level take over and become the dominate center working its way to the lower level... looks to me it is going at least WNW and should miss out on the mountainous area.. still just total speculation on my part... who knows what its going to do.. El Nino is a tough lady to deal with for sure..

[Frank2]

It's a mess - weak turning only, arc clouds - not even good enough for a depression at this point...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[trave2]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=latlon

speed this up as fast as it goes. The main low out of the 4 is now the one due south of the island on the 70 degree mark, this will be the center going forward as the storm re positioned to the south, convection is starting to blow up over the LLC.

[TimeZone]

This thing is dead in my opinion. Seen it coming last night. I'm moving on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon seems to be consistently find the center to be just south of due west. Well south of the coast. I think this is caught in the easterly flow over the Caribbean.

[deltadog03]

I feel like as long as this is weak, its not going to be moving N or NW anything soon (i.e. next 24 hours) I guess its possible that this moves just south of DR/Haiti

[tolakram]

Well at least we have the same opinion.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I feel like as long as this is weak, its not going to be moving N or NW anything soon (i.e. next 24 hours) I guess its possible that this moves just south of DR/Haiti

In El Nino years, doesn't the easterly flow in the Eastern Caribbean speed up because the heat low over Columbia is more intense?

[tailgater]

Don't know if anyone has posted this lately