ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Well all I have to say is, NEXT. #ElNino

Same here! Been over with this mess of a Tropical Storm for a day or two now. The models have been just a big headache!

[deltadog03]

I feel like as long as this is weak, its not going to be moving N or NW anything soon (i.e. next 24 hours) I guess its possible that this moves just south of DR/Haiti

[Bocadude85]

The HWRF brings something into South Florida... I guess a tropical depression?

[ROCK]

I feel like as long as this is weak, its not going to be moving N or NW anything soon (i.e. next 24 hours) I guess its possible that this moves just south of DR/Haiti

I agree with you on that as the latest vis I seen is the LLC is moving a lot more west than N or NW attm....that said I am sure she is taken a beaten by those mountains.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: HWRF shows zilch and is much weaker than the 06Z. Only model that keeps this alive now once clearing Hispaniola is the CMC which is not to be trusted anyway since it has a genesis bias. I would think the next ECMWF will probably drop it or show something weak. We shall see.

These models continue to bust big time in Erika.

Models are fine Gatorcane its this ugly looking looking thing in the Caribbean called TS Erika that should meet her demise soon. What else you expect from this fragile basin. Wanna see tc's epac is your destination .

[Mouton]

Watching these models reminds me watching a fellow as he monitored the stock tape one time as his stock went down by each tick. His broker had recommended the stock many times. He was baffled so he called his "broker" and asked what is going on. The broker said, the news is right in front of you on the tape. The moral is, what you see is what you get regardless of what others say.

[deltadog03]

I just can't see this moving to much to the NW or even much WNW the next 24 hours unless it intensifies and that is highly unlikely

[shortwave]

Too soon?

[Steve H.]

YA, way too soon for that!

[Weatherlover12]

Is it going to make it?
I'm nervous because I'm trying to prepare today but need to know for sure if the storm will make it.
Could this make it and strengthened quickly in the Bahamas like Katrina did in 2005?

Not a pro met.. Just citizen

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it going to make it?
I'm nervous because I'm trying to prepare today but need to know for sure if the storm will make it.
Could this make it and strengthened quickly in the Bahamas like Katrina did in 2005?

Not a pro met.. Just citizen

Prepare for a Tropical Storm. Doesn't take that much prep.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[gtalum]

Is it going to make it?
I'm nervous because I'm trying to prepare today but need to know for sure if the storm will make it.
Could this make it and strengthened quickly in the Bahamas like Katrina did in 2005?

Not a pro met.. Just citizen

Not a Met. Lke you.

That said, in my opinion no this is not going to be a Katrina. Conditions are not very favorable for Erika.

[tolakram]

init

[tolakram]

Solution looks identical to 12Z GFS. Never recovers, weak wave into south Florida.

[tolakram]

Weatherbell high rez shows no organization through 48 hours.

[tolakram]

[stormlover2013]

Euro has done a pretty good job with erika the last 3 runs, so thats about 4 days before landfall so not to shabby kudos to the euro and also kudos to GFS for catching on today, just shows you its hard to look at models past 5 days out

[Evil Jeremy]

If the center redevelops north of Hispanola like the NHC is expecting (according to Mayfield), these moddles are moot. Big if though.

[JPmia]

EURO & GFS look like a strong tropical wave or depression (maybe) moving through southern FL and the straits.. basically a normal rainy season event down here in Florida.