ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 70.2°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

It looks like they updated the map (this would be 1pm EDT) but it is still labeled 11am. I will post it anyway.

[galaxy401]

Still moving west according to the advisory...

[Jevo]

From Reddit:

Max Mayfield on WPLG moments ago when asked about recon fixes going West, but the discussion stating a WNW motion

"The forecasters at the NHC are not looking for a particular center at this point, but rather following the convective envelope because the entire circulation is so broad that anything that will form will do so after the convection clears Hispanola to the Northwest"

[DESTRUCTION5]

From Reddit:

Max Mayfield on WPLG moments ago when asked about recon fixes going West, but the discussion stating a WNW motion

"The forecasters at the NHC are not looking for a particular center at this point, but rather following the convective envelope because the entire circulation is so broad that anything that will form will do so after the convection clears Hispanola to the Northwest"

That makes perfect sense.

[jlauderdal]

This cant be right...center in the NW Bahamas

On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and
northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

[Weatherlover12]

I'm nervous.. What are the chances of Erika making it?
This kinda reminds me of Katrina of 2005 when it formed in the Bahamas and quickly gain strength.

Not a pro met.. Just citizen

[stormlover2013]

not going to happen my friend, just to many negatives, not a forecast just a opinion

[Frank2]

I am confused too, jlauderdal - and I worked there 30 years ago : ) - the wording doesn't match what we are seeing...

[MaineWeatherNut]

not going to happen my friend, just to many negatives, not a forecast just a opinion

There are no negatives once it moves above the Islands if it can put down a center. The only negatives is whatever land interaction it may encounter before being able to put down a center.

[rockyman]

Does anyone think the "center" could pass between Jamaica and the SE coast of Cuba? (a la Gustav 2008)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[tolakram]

Well,

+my thinking is+ tracking has to follow an LLC but the idea is the mid levels are moving northwest (I assume) so the thinking is these LLC's will die once the mid levels get too far away and convection collapses. Then it becomes a waiting game to see if an LLC can form again north of the island. Very possibly maybe.

[SFLcane]

Jeff masters...

If Erika survives into Saturday morning, which I give a 50% chance of occurring, the storm may have time to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds before hitting South Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

The way Mayfield makes it sound (and he definately would know), NHC is basically passing the buck for another 12 or so hours.

[Nimbus]

Shear is dropping and the ridging is developing out ahead.
Mountains of Haiti won't disrupt this..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Stormcenter]

Will it even make it that far north? Anyway I wouldn't be one bit surprised if this ended up hitting the Florida panhandle and not the peninsula. IMO

Jeff masters...

If Erika survives into Saturday morning, which I give a 50% chance of occurring, the storm may have time to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds before hitting South Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

The way Mayfield makes it sound (and he definately would know), NHC is basically passing the buck for another 12 or so hours.

Agreed...right now they are just kicking the can down the road and seeing where it ends up. In the meantime, everyone in the DR and Haiti needs to be prepared for possible severe flash floods and mudslides.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

lol... not sure what to think of this thing.. or if I would even classify it at the moment.. but the energy can survive it might have a chance to come back. I think the energy moving north of DR has the better shot of redeveloping.. if at all

[BigB0882]

Whether the NHC is focusing on a center or not, this is moving W, even by their own admission. Why would the next plot point show a direct NW movement? They have to know it is going to miss that point which then throws off the rest of the points, no doubt. Or, are they counting on this thing having a major center relocation to the NW with any southerly component dying off?

[tgenius]

I truly wonder if watches will come on at 5pm for SFL. It of course causes the domino effect with schools/businesses following the closure of schools, etc.

[SouthernBreeze]

Areas of DR have already experienced destruction due to flash floods, with several deaths & missing persons. A friend living there contacted me with news several hours ago