ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

[img]http://i61.tinypic.com/24vipgg.jpg[/im
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Interesting eddy or something spinning NW out of DR...

Could be something, look at what the HH picked up north of DR on its way home.

[img]http://tropicwatch.info/HH2.jpg[img]

I noticed it on sat.. but its likely just a illusion. a arc in the clouds from outflow. looking to the west of that area there is nothing but easterly flow. That and the plane few over the island which means they were at a high altitude.

[Jevo]

I no longer see any evidence of low level west winds. Probably is an open wave at this point. I'm not convinced it will ever recover.

Not too loud.. he's ready to pounce

[stormlover2013]

I was really looking forward tracking erika this weekend but not I will have to find something else to do lol....hopefully next week we will have something to track...

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

looks like the LLC took a dive straight south and now is just under DR...

[daylynsmom]

I was really looking forward tracking erika this weekend but not I will have to find something else to do lol....hopefully next week we will have something to track...

Same here. It kills me to stay away from this board for more than an hour. I don't post but I've been following this board for years. Everyone here has so much knowledge, I'm just here to learn.

[Stormcenter]

It sure does look that way.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-rgb-long.html

looks like the LLC took a dive straight south and now is just under DR...

[Bluespider]

so is she officially dead?

[vbhoutex]

Whatever LLC's were south of DR seem to be rapidly dissipating. This now has a look of something spilling over DR and heading NW. In my opinion. Lots of rain, unfortunately.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

What I am seeing is basically what you said, but I still see an elongated circulation where the llc's were. I fear the worst rain wise for The Dominican Republic as it appears that the clouds are piling up against the mountains or starting to and that could unleash unbelievable rains. I hope I am wrong. I also have a friend in Haiti in the mountains in a very vulnerable area. Praying that he and his family are ok!!

yeah there definitely is a broad circ down there.. but there is little inflow from the S or sw. wont last long like that.

Probably not. That brings up the question of what's next. I wonder if that eddy N of the DR is the answer? If it is then unfortunately it could be game on again and rather quickly if it starts moving more quickly into better conditions. Of course the caveat to that is if it intensifies quickly it COULD, not necessarily will, start to turn more NW. Even though it probably is only a wave now it looks like it will cause heavy rains over the DR which is not good. NOBODY can let their guard down yet!!

[Aric Dunn]

What I am seeing is basically what you said, but I still see an elongated circulation where the llc's were. I fear the worst rain wise for The Dominican Republic as it appears that the clouds are piling up against the mountains or starting to and that could unleash unbelievable rains. I hope I am wrong. I also have a friend in Haiti in the mountains in a very vulnerable area. Praying that he and his family are ok!!

yeah there definitely is a broad circ down there.. but there is little inflow from the S or sw. wont last long like that.

Probably not. That brings up the question of what's next. I wonder if that eddy N of the DR is the answer? If it is then unfortunately it could be game on again and rather quickly if it starts moving more quickly into better conditions. Of course the caveat to that is if it intensifies quickly it COULD, not necessarily will, start to turn more NW. Even though it probably is only a wave now it looks like it will cause heavy rains over the DR which is not good. NOBODY can let their guard down yet!!

yeah only shot I think is if more of the energy can get north of DR without being disrupted to much..

[Frank2]

The NHC might keep it a TS because of the 40 kt winds measured earlier, but if there isn't a closed circulation, that's another issue. We have to think that is why the GFS kept showing it dissipating even a few days ago - at that time it showed lots of moisture in this area, but nothing else.

My own opinion...

[Hammy]

I can't help but point out everyone thought I was crazy yesterday when I said it would do this, and yet here we are.

Hopefully whatever ends up being left of this can get sucked up into Georgia, we need the rain here as we're essentially headed for a drought at the moment.

[tgenius]

The disco for 5pm will be mighty interesting especially given EURO and GFS both have it going POOF and the radar showing the LLC going POOF.. Would they go straight to remnants for the 5pm advisory?

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-rgb-long.html

looks like the LLC took a dive straight south and now is just under DR...

That's definitely one area to watch. NHC said NW or W of the island, but South is plausible too apparently. Looks like some inflow down there, but it's hard to say if that's just transient to geographical features or if that's really where a "center" is. If so, then it looks like the "center" would be near eastern Jamaica later on and possibly south of the Eastern tip of Cuba. Erica is also spitting out a bunch of outflow boundaries which usually isn't a good sign. But a portion of the circulation could be collapsing due to landfall interaction, and this could be temporary as well as convection is strongest right in south central D.R.

[Steve H.]

But where is here. We know there was no real llc left, but a broader circulation. Let's wait until this area gets NW of the DR.

[weathernerdguy]

Well, if you want to track a system, you could always check out the EPAC, but this system is still interesting!

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-rgb-long.html

looks like the LLC took a dive straight south and now is just under DR...

That's definitely one area to watch. NHC said NW or W of the island, but South is plausible too apparently. Looks like some inflow down there, but it's hard to say if that's just transient to geographical features or if that's really where a "center" is. If so, then it looks like the "center" would be near eastern Jamaica later on and possibly south of the Eastern tip of Cuba. Erica is also spitting out a bunch of outflow boundaries which usually isn't a good sign. But a portion of the circulation could be collapsing due to landfall interaction, and this could be temporary as well as convection is strongest right in south central D.R.

if that rotation survives passing that piece of land with mountains on it that sticks out to the south I would be very surprised. doubt any actual identifiable remnants of the circ will make it. reformation is possible.. we will see though

[Stormcenter]

NW?

But where is here. We know there was no real llc left, but a broader circulation. Let's wait until this area gets NW of the DR.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The disco for 5pm will be mighty interesting especially given EURO and GFS both have it going POOF and the radar showing the LLC going POOF.. Would they go straight to remnants for the 5pm advisory?

I really havent seen any modeling to justify it to show a landfalling FL system any more. Pretty sure they were waiting on Euro which also poofed it for most part till day 5 in Gulf.

[Stormcenter]

I think it's pretty easy to see where the center is IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Jevo]

There is certainly a little bit of spinnin going on in the last 5 or 6 frames hugging the N coast of DR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html Perhaps it's the feature others were eluding to earlier