ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blizzard96x]

Finally making landfall..... About time.

With what? 1 of its 15 centers?

[weathernerdguy]

129 pages, and about 75% are about it dying. It's just a storm that formed during an el nino. I'd say it did ok for the challenges it faced during its way to DR.

[AutoPenalti]

Finally making landfall..... About time.

Is that even the correct center?

[Blizzard96x]

Do I understand that Erica is basically a wave now? So sad to say, but people are major lined up at gas stations, water is stripped off store shelves, last minute panicking going on. Yet, the local station is still hyping like crazy.

Went from a possible Florida hurricane threat to barely even a Tropical Storm sliding into SW Florida in less than 24hrs.

At this point I'd say it's about over for this mess of a storm.

Someone please put the nail in the coffin for pete sakes!

Haha, OT, but living in Pennsylvania I know the exact feeling with winter storms. Especially with the so called "Blizzard of 2015" earlier this year where Philly was forecasted 12-18" and didn't even get a dusting... NYC got fringed and a bunch of angry "preppers" went balistic on the forums. Euro's fault.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/28/us/tropical-weather-erika/
12 dead, others missing after Tropical Storm Erika's
deluge hits Dominica
 Updated 2:45 PM ET, Fri August 28, 2015
By Joshua Berlinger, CNN
At least 12 people are dead from the
devastation, Dominican Prime Minister says
Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of
emergency in preparation for storm
Erika's center headed toward Dominican
Republic, U.S. National Hurricane Center says
Editor's Note: Are you in the path of the storm? Please share
images with CNN if it is safe to do so.
(CNN)—Images from the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica show the
devastation after Tropical Storm Erika left at least 12 dead.
One road is cut in half. A plane floats through what used to be an
airport runway.
Trisha Scotland said the storm damage is the worst she's seen in her
lifetime.
Scotland walked 6 miles from her home in Jimmit to the capital,
Roseau, to check on her mother's business, photographing the
devastation along the way.
"I've experienced at least 6 to 7 hurricanes. I'm not even counting the storms. I'm not even counting the depressions,"
Scotland told CNN.
More than 20 are still missing, Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said Friday.
The country was inundated with almost 12 inches of rain in less than 10 hours, according to CNN meteorologist Chad
Myers.
Skerrit said Erika caused "extensive damage" across the island after floods wiped out roads and swamped villages.
He expressed particular concern for Petite Savanne, a community hit by mudslides that rescuers haven't been able to
reach.
"This is where many are feared lost," Skerrit said.
Authorities are focusing on search-and-rescue efforts, with other countries in the region providing helicopters and other
assistance.
Skerrit said the task of repairing Dominica's "dramatically affected" infrastructure would come later, estimating that the cost
would run into tens of millions of dollars.
"Usually you have damage in one particular area, but this time around it is island-wide," Scotland said. "It is a difficult
challenge ahead for Dominica."
A 'disorganized' storm
Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency as the storm heads toward his state.
"We don't know how much land it's going to go over," Scott said at a press conference Friday. "We don't know how much
water we're going to get."
The governor told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Friday that flooding is his biggest concern -- particularly in the Tampa area, which
is already saturated from storms a couple of weeks ago.
"It's been years since we've had a hurricane," Scott said. "Think of how many people have moved to our state and never
even experienced a hurricane."
As of 2 p.m. Friday, Erika was about 60 miles southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, according to the U.S.
National Hurricane Center. The Dominican Republic is already getting "heavy rains and gusty winds," the hurricane center
said.
Erika is expected to remain a tropical storm as it approaches South Florida. The latest tracking has it sliding between Cuba
and the Bahamas, pushing into the southern tip of Florida early Monday and then churning through the heart of the
peninsula.
However, the hurricane center said conditions are volatile and they could change in the coming days.
Erika has been particularly hard to track, CNN meteorologist Jennifer Gray said.
#erika #flood #dominica #serious #weatherchannel
@weatherchannel
loisquelle_ • 1 day ago Follow
7 likes 13 comments
"It's been very disorganized, so models have had a hard time getting a handle on where exactly this storm is going to go,"
she said.
The storm is expected to weaken Friday afternoon and evening, the hurricane center said, with little change in strength
through Saturday night.
The U.S. government has discontinued tropical storm warnings for the U.S. Virgin Islands, the hurricane center said.
Still, the U.S. Coast Guard warned ports in South Florida late Thursday to prepare for the possibility of sustained gale-force
winds within 72 hours.
"Mariners are reminded that there are no safe havens in these facilities and that ports are safest when the inventory of
vessels is at a minimum," a Coast Guard statement said. "All oceangoing commercial vessels and oceangoing barges
greater than 500 gross tons should make plans for departing the port."
Track Erika's progress
Storm warning from Puerto Rico to the Bahamas
By late Thursday, the center of Erika had moved west-northwest, and Dominica was getting some relief.
But before the storm reaches Florida, it's expected to affect much of the Caribbean.
The tropical storm warning in place currently includes islands from Puerto Rico to the Bahamas. Cuba's government
issued a tropical storm watch for some provinces Friday morning, according to the hurricane center.
Erika's winds, light for a tropical storm, could weaken a bit as the system moves over Hispaniola on Friday. The island is
home to the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
Erika's maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, with higher gusts, the forecasting center said early Friday. Tropical stormforce
winds extended outward up to 150 miles from the storm's center, it said.
But the rain from the storm could be the bigger concern for those in Erika's path.
"This is going to be a rainmaker," CNN's Chad Myers said. "It's not going to be a wind-maker that blows every building
down."
The storm was expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches -- with a maximum of 12 inches possible -- across parts of the
Leeward Islands (which can include Dominica), the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeast Bahamas through Saturday.
The hurricane center said the rain could cause "life-threatening flash floods and mudslides."
'Erika has wreaked havoc'
Dominica's Prime Minister posted photos on his Facebook page of roads washed away by muddy floodwaters and a video
of a raging river spilling over its banks and swamping cars in a built-up area.
Natalie John, chief executive officer of Dreamy Weddings & Tours Inc., said her staff and friends in Dominica "aren't doing
so well."
"Erika has wreaked havoc there," said John, who lives farther north on the island of St. Kitts.
Roosevelt Skerrit
An employee on Dominica told her that a friend's family was missing after their house was swept away, she said.
At least one of Dominica's airports was badly damaged. Photos of Douglas-Charles Airport on the Prime Minister's
Facebook page showed a flooded runway and a small plane with water up to its doors.
Tropical storms and hurricanes: Fast facts for 2015
CNN's Jethro Mullen, Ed Payne, Steve Almasy, Nelson Quinones and Tina Burnside contributed to this report.
Roosevelt Skerrit
Macoucherie River

[TheStormExpert]

129 pages, and about 75% are about it dying. It's just a storm that formed during an el nino. I'd say it did ok for the challenges it faced during its way to DR.

I'm so ready to give up on this aggravating season and move onto fall and winter. At least the El Niño will bring us an interesting winter.

Maybe next year we can actually get more than one decent looking storm!

[Frank P]

Yep, this tropical storm has probably killed more people than many Cat 1 storms impacting the USA...

[blp]

Finally making landfall..... About time.

[img]http://i57.tinypic.com/11rax5y.gif[/]

Is that even the correct center?

That is what the NHC is tracking but who knows..

[fci]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

Exactly! This how I feel... If another storm were to target FL.. I most likely won't take it seriously. I don't want it come but it would've been nice for her to give us some impact after all the prep we were told to do.
Thanks for saying this

I don't know what age you are or if you have children or own property, but EVERYONE in a possible Tropcial Cyclone impact area should ALWAYS be ready, at least during Hurricane season. To make statements like this is at a minimum irresponsible imho.
Excuse me. Rant over.

Thank you David!!!
I'm all over this one like a broken record and, like Erika which will probably be done tonight; I will let it lie.
I do not know what people want.
If the NHC does the best they can do with the tools that they have and they predict that a Hurricane will threaten South Florida; then the media will inform the general public of the situation.
This is NOT hype.
Then, if the forecast is incorrect and it is no longer a threat then people have to accept that it was wrong and not make statements that they will no longer trust the NHC or The News Media.
Treat each situation seperately.
It is FOOLISH to make a statement that they will ignore future situations if one is incorrectly forecast.
If ANYONE should know better about how fickle Mother Nature is, it should be the people on this board.
My rant is over too, just like Erika.

[TheStormExpert]

Finally making landfall..... About time.

[img]http://i57.tinypic.com/11rax5y.gif[/]

Is that even the correct center?

That is what the NHC is tracking but who knows..

Not trying to beat on the NHC but seriously why do they still show this making a sharp sudden WNW/NW turn?? Erika is obviously just going to continue to head west with the low level flow and probably die out. Do they really have to follow the guidance which has done very poorly with this storm.

[tailgater]

We haven't seen the IR posted lately, Looks like Azua in the Dominican republic is getting dumped on.



Probably life threating conditions

[tatertawt24]

129 pages, and about 75% are about it dying. It's just a storm that formed during an el nino. I'd say it did ok for the challenges it faced during its way to DR.

I'm so ready to give up on this aggravating season and move onto fall and winter. At least the El Niño will bring us an interesting winter.

Maybe next year we can actually get more than one decent looking storm!

I still think it's leagues about 2013. That season was weak AND boring. At least this storm has been entertaining, albeit for unusual reasons.

[Frank P]

Hisp and the DR must be getting pounded with some serious rain looking at the IR and vis sats ...I would speculate a significant loss of life on the big island with Erika... not going to have a good outcome for the people that live there...

[Dean4Storms]

Finally making landfall..... About time.

Yes it is and Convection now building over it. I don't think it is done at all.

[ozonepete]

Not trying to beat on the NHC but seriously why do they still show this making a sharp sudden WNW/NW turn?? Erika is obviously just going to continue to head west with the low level flow and probably die out. Do they really have to follow the guidance which has done very poorly with this storm.

the short answer to your question is yes. Actually the long answer is yes as well.

[Evil Jeremy]

Not trying to beat on the NHC but seriously why do they still show this making a sharp sudden WNW/NW turn?? Erika is obviously just going to continue to head west with the low level flow and probably die out. Do they really have to follow the guidance which has done very poorly with this storm.

the short answer to your question is yes. Actually the long answer is yes as well.

Although the LLC is stumbling west, south of the DR, to my (unqualified, untrained) eyes, the bulk of convention, maybe even the MLC, is heading a solid WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[CourierPR]

Not trying to beat on the NHC but seriously why do they still show this making a sharp sudden WNW/NW turn?? Erika is obviously just going to continue to head west with the low level flow and probably die out. Do they really have to follow the guidance which has done very poorly with this storm.[/quote]


Perhaps they still show Erika making a sharp turn because the meteorologists at the NHC are the genuine storm experts.

[rolltide]

Another big blow of of convection near where the "center" of Erika may be. Also, it may be a moot point if Erika dies or fails to regenerate but the trough in the gulf seems to be retrograding the the west in the northern gulf. If that continues I wonder if it would create a for favorable environment if Erika were to make to the eastern gulf?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Not trying to beat on the NHC but seriously why do they still show this making a sharp sudden WNW/NW turn?? Erika is obviously just going to continue to head west with the low level flow and probably die out. Do they really have to follow the guidance which has done very poorly with this storm.

Perhaps they still show Erika making a sharp turn because the meteorologists at the NHC are the genuine storm experts.[/quote]

Thank you.

[ozonepete]

For anyone who isn't in the path of this storm and thinks it's over you should stop watching then - stop torturing yourself lol. Have a great weekend.

For anyone who is in the path of this storm and thinks it's over, you should rethink that because this storm has fooled everyone so far and you do not want to get fooled if it's your turn to get seriously pounded with rain and floods like the DR and Haiti are right now. There is no way of knowing what this storm has left in it and that's why we stay here to watch it until it's truly dead.