ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[BucMan2]

It wouldn't hurt and probably decrease the shear some.

[SootyTern]

[/quote]

The way it was hyped.. Scared me[/quote]

Are you new to living in the hurricane zone? One great thing about this board is how much you can learn about storms and eventually make your own educated conclusions about the threat level to you personally. Something else that I have found useful is to organize your hurricane prep into 'tiers', starting first with actions that are good to do anyways (an example for me is having non-perishable food on hand that I will eat anyways, propane/gas, water jugs, etc.) and then ramping up to actions that are a PITA (like moving boats and shuttering houses) only when the threat level increases past a certain threshold. There is a good thread here somewhere about hurricane prep actions.

[CronkPSU]

it amazes me how anyone in Florida can be writing off this storm, it hasn't followed the models at all for 72 hours, why would you all of a sudden be confident that once it hits less shear and very warm ocean water and possibly gulf stream waters that it is no longer a worry...so far we are having best case scenario for Florida, who knows what the next 24 hours will be

[idaknowman]

Doesn't seem that it wants to die:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

[WPBWeather]

it amazes me how anyone in Florida can be writing off this storm, it hasn't followed the models at all for 72 hours, why would you all of a sudden be confident that once it hits less shear and very warm ocean water and possibly gulf stream waters that it is no longer a worry...so far we are having best case scenario for Florida, who knows what the next 24 hours will be

Thank you!!! You are one of the few sensible posters over the past 12 hours on this site. We seem to have people who joined Storm2K in the last 72 hours just to babble nonsense about Erika.

[scotto]

When will Erika make a turn to the NW?

[Weatherlover12]

it amazes me how anyone in Florida can be writing off this storm, it hasn't followed the models at all for 72 hours, why would you all of a sudden be confident that once it hits less shear and very warm ocean water and possibly gulf stream waters that it is no longer a worry...so far we are having best case scenario for Florida, who knows what the next 24 hours will be

Because some on the blog is kinda trending that and local stations are saying we'll be affected less
It's complicated

[rolltide]

Man, looks like Haiti is about to get flooded. Most of us posters know Haiti is subject to landslides due to deforestation. They are also not able to handle disasters very well. Hope for the best.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Man, looks like Haiti is about to get flooded. Most of us posters know Haiti is subject to landslides due to deforestation. They are also not able to handle disasters very well. Hope for the best.

Yeah, I don't like the way this is setting up for them. ugh!!

[psyclone]

Not trying to beat on the NHC but seriously why do they still show this making a sharp sudden WNW/NW turn?? Erika is obviously just going to continue to head west with the low level flow and probably die out. Do they really have to follow the guidance which has done very poorly with this storm.

Perhaps they still show Erika making a sharp turn because the meteorologists at the NHC are the genuine storm experts.[/quote]
yes, they're storm experts and Erika has been no more than half a storm her entire life. I have no doubt that if Erika were a well put together, vertically stacked, coherent cyclone the NHC and the models they depend upon would have performed marvelously.

[Steve]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

A tropical storm gets named with the right components including sustained 1 minute gales (99% sure at 34k/39mph). I think that is a fair place to classify a level of a system above a depression. So that's not just an arbitrary component. Also, I've had hurricanes literally within 75 miles that had almost no effect to tropical storms hundreds hundreds of miles away flood this city. It takes about no effort to conclude that all situations are different. But what can you do? If people want to be complacent and believe groupthink cliches or whatever, that's on them. Jmo
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Good post stormcenter. It was Friday afternoon and I was at work when the nhc realized the SW dip was really going to impact the path and issued that advisory. I want to say the track was between Navarre Beach and Perdido Key. It was a trip because it was already within the 72 hour window they said we needed. Crazy from that point forward...

[AdamFirst]

When will Erika make a turn to the NW?

Likely when it's away from Hispaniola will we see a more northerly component in track

[USTropics]

Erika is still under the influence of the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge that has been steering her for days. Once she rounds the edge, steering currents will relax, with a mid-to-upper level trough towards her west in the GOM and the subtropical ridge to the east. That's when Erika is expected to turn more towards the north and slow down in speed. There's pretty low confidence on when this will occur though, and even the NHC mentioned it in the 5PM discussion:

it should be noted that the guidance has been consistently forecasting
a west-northwestward turn that has so far failed to occur.

[terstorm1012]

Not trying to beat on the NHC but seriously why do they still show this making a sharp sudden WNW/NW turn?? Erika is obviously just going to continue to head west with the low level flow and probably die out. Do they really have to follow the guidance which has done very poorly with this storm.

this is probably answered by now but it's probably the giant digging trough over the central gulf. if it remains intact it will get entrained into that.

[marciacubed]

It appears to me to still going west. Anyone else see a westward movement?


I know nothing so don't look at anything I say as knowledgable. Listen to the NHC

[wxman57]

Don't follow the "center" - it doesn't exist. Follow the convection, which is moving WNW-NW across the DR. That's what Jack (Beven) is focusing on at the NHC. The convection is what will cause the problems, not the center. Jack's a good meteorologist.

[psyclone]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

A tropical storm gets named with the right components including sustained 1 minute gales (99% sure at 34k/39mph). I think that is a fair place to classify a level of a system above a depression. So that's not just an arbitrary component. Also, I've had hurricanes literally within 75 miles that had almost no effect to tropical storms hundreds hundreds of miles away flood this city. It takes about no effort to conclude that all situations are different. But what can you do? If people want to be complacent and believe groupthink cliches or whatever, that's on them. Jmo
------
Good post stormcenter. It was Friday afternoon and I was at work when the nhc realized the SW dip was really going to impact the path and issued that advisory. I want to say the track was between Navarre Beach and Perdido Key. It was a trip because it was already within the 72 hour window they said we needed. Crazy from that point forward...

Valid point Steve. I like a 50 knot level as that's a real storm (same wind criteria for severe t-storm warning). and it would help us confine naming to more meaningful storms. for storms with gales less than 50 knots I would love to see a "deep depression" designation with gale warnings used for landfall. I am old enough to remember when there were no tropical storm warnings. there were hurricane warnings or gale warnings. it's just something I've long contemplated but it's probably never workable...sorry for the OT rant.

[blp]

Don't follow the "center" - it doesn't exist. Follow the convection, which is moving WNW-NW across the DR. That's what Jack (Beven) is focusing on at the NHC. The convection is what will cause the problems, not the center. Jack's a good meteorologist.

Thanks very good advice. Max Mayfield made mention of it as well I believe. These old school guys are used to handling these situations especially back then when models where in their infancy and they had to rely on other tools.

[SFLcane]

That convection might eventually develop a new LLC as suggested by NHC. well see what we wake up to in the morning

[tolakram]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

Exactly! This how I feel... If another storm were to target FL.. I most likely won't take it seriously. I don't want it come but it would've been nice for her to give us some impact after all the prep we were told to do.
Thanks for saying this

You know this is absolutely absurd, selfish, borderline (I'm being polite) idiotic. There are dead people in the Islands, drowned due to this storm, and all you care about is if people in Florida will pay attention next time? Florida is not the center of the universe.