ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Surface reports conclude it is NOT at the surface

Still, it is the most impressive near-surface feature yet...

[ozonepete]

Surface reports conclude it is NOT at the surface

It ABSOLUTELY is not at the surface. Good for pointing that out tailgater. It is a strong circulation at mid levels. That is how many TCs wind up surviving a crossing of Hispaniola. If the MLC is strong it just rides along and puts down an LLC when it finishes crossing Haiti and gets back over the water.

[blp]

Take a look at this.

[northjaxpro]

That microwave image. I am doing a double take ! That is one hell of an illusion if that is what tou guys are inclined to believe so.

[hurricanekid416]

If the midlevel circulation gets to water and works its way to the surface it could ranp up quickly

[CrazyC83]

What altitude is that circulation at?

[AutoPenalti]

Take a look at this.

It's finally moving WNW

[blp]

Looks like finally taking path to the NW now.

[BobHarlem]

It that animation is accurate, it may just clip extreme east Cuba. Hmm. Tomorrow will be interesting for sure.

[psyclone]

That microwave image. I am doing a double take ! That is one hell of an illusion if that is what tou guys are inclined to believe so.

I don't know what to think now that some of you guys that know more than me think it's legit. my initial thought was no way.

[CrazyC83]

It that animation is accurate, it may just clip extreme east Cuba. Hmm. Tomorrow will be interesting for sure.

Also on that track, should an LLC come out of that (likely), it comes back over water very quickly, like within a few hours.

[drewschmaltz]

^Hey, isn't that, like, right on the forecast line?

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like the MLC is moving almost NW, at that direction Cuba won't be much of an issue, if the MLC can spawn a new LLC.

Well, Erika just became interesting again.

[tgenius]

It sure appears as if it has made that WNW turn at least on some level.. I wonder if that is the starting point for the models to initialize against, or have they been initializing at the wrong location?

[psyclone]

Looks like the MLC is moving almost NW, at that direction Cuba won't be much of an issue, if the MLC can spawn a new LLC.

Well, Erika just became interesting again.

for sure. if it is an illusion it should be transient. when is the next microwave pass?

[Weatherboy1]

Looks like the MLC is moving almost NW, at that direction Cuba won't be much of an issue, if the MLC can spawn a new LLC.

Well, Erika just became interesting again.

Yes, if she can stay offshore then we may finally see some intensification. Will be interesting to see the next 12-18 hours for sure

[gatorcane]

Take a look at this.

http://i61.tinypic.com/35danx0.gif

It's finally moving WNW

Supported by 850MB and 700MB vorticity map (850MB shown below, zoomed in):

[blp]

Here is the 24 hour loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_05L/webManager/last24hrs.gif

[Jevo]

Franklin walking in with the 11pm discussion and someone shows him the microwave imagery over DR

[marciacubed]

It does appear to have finally made the turn to to NW


I know nothing so don't look at anything I say as knowledgable. Listen to the NHC