ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

never use the ADT for these types of systems. EVER

[AdamFirst]

never use the ADT for these types of systems. EVER

Yeah, it seems a bit farfetched to me (in this situation)

[bamajammer4eva]

Based on current satellite trends I am inclined to believe even this is incorrect but here is the NHC's cone of uncertainty westward slide dance over the past 48 hours every 12 hours ending at the 10pm advisory tonight. No discredit intended to the pros but it Shows that even with the knowledge and tools today, storms can be troublesome to predict!

[img]http://nimga.com/m/wohLU.gif

It is NOT a cone of uncertainty. A cone of uncertainty would take into account the atmospheric flow dependent uncertainty. It is a historical error cone, nothing more

It is my understanding that based on the past, there is a certain radius by each forecast position of the storm center's average uncertainty (margin of error) from storms past so they draw a circle around each one with the circle being larger with each plot in time and then connect the lines of the circles to make it all a cone. Similar to how Wunderground shows it? like this...

[bahamaswx]

Cloud tops seriously warming. She's having a rough time.

[rolltide]

Cloud tops seriously warming. She's having a rough time.

Erika seems to be pulsing as she has the past few days. May be bad news for Jamaica as the next pulse may be right over them.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

05L ERIKA 150829 0600 18.8N 74.4W ATL 35 1008

Barely a TS.

[jlauderdal]

Based on current satellite trends I am inclined to believe even this is incorrect but here is the NHC's cone of uncertainty westward slide dance over the past 48 hours every 12 hours ending at the 10pm advisory tonight. No discredit intended to the pros but it Shows that even with the knowledge and tools today, storms can be troublesome to predict!

[img]http://nimga.com/m/wohLU.gif

It is NOT a cone of uncertainty. A cone of uncertainty would take into account the atmospheric flow dependent uncertainty. It is a historical error cone, nothing more

It is my understanding that based on the past, there is a certain radius by each forecast position of the storm center's average uncertainty (margin of error) from storms past so they draw a circle around each one with the circle being larger with each plot in time and then connect the lines of the circles to make it all a cone. Similar to how Wunderground shows it? like this...

Please checkout the NHC Definition http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

The cone doesn't change in a season as far as calculation...it changes one year from the next based on the previous 5 years stats as calculated by NHC and NHC only.

The cone isn't subjective, its based on simple math, nothing more, nothing less.

The only way the cone "changes" is when a new forecast is put out by NHC and NHC only...any other cone(e.g accuweather, twc, board members) is not the "official" cone, sometimes they do use the nhc cone, sometimes not. This doesn't mean their cone is wrong, right, bs, etc but when looking at those cones they are generally much larger than one would see from nhc, make your own determination why they use a much larger cone, pm me if you would like my opinion. I have seen other cones swallow up the entire eastern seaboard, entire gulf coast, etc. so please be very careful when you are looking at "cones" so that you can filter accordingly.

[Hammy]

Massive outflow boundary shot straight out towards the west and southwest from the convection, I think any low level spin that may have been there just got obliterated.

[tailgater]

Possible low level circulation forming at 21.5N 74.5 W or just N of the eastern most Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[jlauderdal]

Possible low level circulation forming at 21.5N 74.5 W or just N of the eastern most Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

good catch...might see this break off from the southern convection and get something started on the northern side over the water...cuba is almost acting like an anvil breaking the system in half..lets see what transpires the next few hours..if anything is going to happen it has to happen on the north side not the south

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[shortwave]

:uarrow: Dry air shear its very apparent on vapor image.

Shear forecasts still very difficult to get correct. If there wasn't much in bahamas like had been discussed I think this could have taken off. Thankfully, at the moment that isn't the situation. Sorta looks like a general center is just on the northern side of eastern cuba.

[northjaxpro]

Possible low level circulation forming at 21.5N 74.5 W or just N of the eastern most Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

good catch...might see this break off from the southern convection and get something started on the northern side over the water...cuba is almost acting like an anvil breaking the system in half..lets see what transpires the next few hours..if anything is going to happen it has to happen on the north side not the south

I agree. I also agree with tailgater that area on the very tip of the easternmost coast of Cuba at or nesr his coordinates may be the development of Low Level surface center.

[jlauderdal]

the miami tv stations all cranking up the coverage at 5 am with special editions...

[emeraldislenc]

This has to be one of the worst jobs done by the Nhc in a
Long time in predicting the projected path not being critical just being honest they have tried but off big time !

[xironman]

Here is a saved gif of that shortwave, it almost looks like it split with low levels on both sides of Cuba.

[bahamaswx]

This has to be one of the worst jobs done by the Nhc in a
Long time in predicting the projected path not being critical just being honest they have tried but off big time !

Gotta go with the models. And if all the models are wrong, so be it.

[bahamaswx]

Here is a saved gif of that shortwave, it almost looks like it split with low levels on both sides of Cuba.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/OEp04Op.gif[img]

There's some vigorous rotation clear as day there shooting out NW past Inagua island.

[jlauderdal]

they still dont know where the edge of the ridge....amazing to me how far off they have been on the forecast for gain in latitude

"residents are advised to stay indoors this weekend"...nbc6 report this morning

this is where the media is completely responsible for overhype, causing people to take real threats lightly....they can have all the special editions of news they want, its their company but they do have a responsibility to be factual about what erika is and thats a potential rainmaker, "potential" and thats it

[Nimbus]

Low level vortex stayed over water south of Haiti.
I suppose there is still the early recurve risk for Florida like with Charley.
Worth staring at the WV loop for a few minutes.