ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Steve]

Lmao at the BAMs. They have kind of been hinting the way. Called them blind squirrels but if Erika's energy runs mostly south of Cuba, shallow and medium win. I'd give them less than a 30% chance, but as the continuous southern outliers, it's worth a mention. http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

PS. If the GFS is right rainfall in parts of FL is 'real' if not catastrophic. Further, based on the 00z run, it would be tough to get anything in the north gulf west of 83/84 for at least 2 weeks. Could be right or wrong. If it's mostly right, pattern would possibly/probably reverse into the 2nd wk of September. Just some things to watch for.

[Stormcenter]

They may turn out not to be the "crazy uncle" after all.

Lmao at the BAMs. They have kind of been hinting the way. Called them blind squirrels but if Erika's energy runs mostly south of Cuba, shallow and medium win. I'd give them less than a 30% chance, but as the continuous southern outliers, it's worth a mention. http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[ROCK]

Lmao at the BAMs. They have kind of been hinting the way. Called them blind squirrels but if Erika's energy runs mostly south of Cuba, shallow and medium win. I'd give them less than a 30% chance, but as the continuous southern outliers, it's worth a mention. http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

PS. If the GFS is right rainfall in parts of FL is 'real' if not catastrophic. Further, based on the 00z run, it would be tough to get anything in the north gulf west of 83/84 for at least 2 weeks. Could be right or wrong. If it's mostly right, pattern would possibly/probably reverse into the 2nd wk of September. Just some things to watch for.

have to agree on

[Ntxw]

0z euro hasn't changed much or adds, not much of a discernible system on the run, squalls and heavy rains for Florida as a disturbance or depression.

total qpf for the run is 3-5 inches of rainfall for much of the pensinula through 5-7 days. It is a global model though, I'd look at mesoscale models for better information on that.

[northjaxpro]

I went ahead and posted this only because it is a consensus that the whatever remains of Erika will get into the Eastern GOM. FWIW, the 72 hour GFDLis showing a rather potent 979 mb Hurricane Erika just southeast of Apalachicola in the extreme Northeast GOM/ Apalachee Bay region.

Again, FWIW.

[NDG]

Lol, the GFDL just can't give up on Erika.

[northjaxpro]

Lol, the GFDL just can't give up on Erika.

Yeah, I know. Figured that would get a chuckle from some folks.

[NDG]

Maybe a small chance to regenerate in the eastern GOM.

[NDG]

[Weatherlover12]

Well I guess Erika is gone. I will keep a watch on the circulation to the NE of Cuba.It wont be smart of me to return all my items to Home Depot.. I have a feeling FL will be targeted again this year by a storm of some sorts

Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

[tolakram]

12Z GFS running, no changes, will post if something different pops up.

[Extratropical94]

Code: Select all

* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  ERIKA       AL902015  08/29/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    35    35    36    37    41    46    49    51    49    51    53    52
V (KT) LAND       35    35    35    36    37    41    46    49    51    36    30    28    27
V (KT) LGE mod    35    35    36    36    38    41    44    47    51    38    30    28    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        27    23    18    14    15    22    19    24    32    40    42    35    18
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -6    -1     0    -3    -2    -7    -3    -2    -4    -4    -9    -3
SHEAR DIR        306   305   291   274   242   241   229   229   211   213   196   200   173
SST (C)         30.3  30.6  30.7  30.7  30.7  30.3  30.2  30.1  30.0  29.8  28.9  28.2  27.8
POT. INT. (KT)   174   173   172   172   171   171   170   170   169   164   148   137   131
ADJ. POT. INT.   174   173   172   171   167   155   149   145   143   137   121   111   107
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2
TH_E DEV (C)      13    12    12    12    11    11    10     9     9     7     8     5     8
700-500 MB RH     56    63    64    63    64    59    60    58    64    64    68    61    57
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     6     6     6     6     5     5     3     5     5     6     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR   -45   -37   -43   -47   -25   -39   -20   -47   -26   -54   -34   -61   -41
200 MB DIV        53    45    34    28    48    14    55    32    50    34    21     5     3
700-850 TADV     -16   -18    -8    -6     1     3     8     5     6     4     1     2     0
LAND (KM)         61    72    63    89    84   103   167   100    33  -104  -203  -278  -327
LAT (DEG N)     22.4  23.0  23.5  24.3  25.1  26.4  27.7  28.8  30.1  31.4  32.5  33.2  33.5
LONG(DEG W)     77.5  78.8  80.1  81.1  82.0  83.3  84.5  85.3  86.2  86.9  87.6  88.2  89.1
STM SPEED (KT)    17    13    12    12    10     9     7     7     7     7     5     4     4
HEAT CONTENT      61    93    84    64    55    51    46    41    23    39     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 21      CX,CY: -17/ 11
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  840  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:   8.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   1.   5.  11.  17.  20.  24.  26.  27.  27.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   0.  -3.  -8. -12. -15. -16.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -3.  -4.  -2.  -1.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -5.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   0.   1.   2.   6.  11.  14.  16.  14.  16.  18.  17.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 ERIKA      08/29/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  19.5 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.5 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  64.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 136.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  71.4 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  41.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:   7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 ERIKA      08/29/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 ERIKA      08/29/2015  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECM attempts to organize in the Straits but moves it along the SW FL Coastline and...... Dies!

[blp]

The models really struggled with this system. I suspect that its decoupled nature since birth might have something to do with it. Those systems are notoriously hard to predict.

Curious to hear other opinions and some of pros chiming in on what happened.

[rolltide]

Sometimes failure gives the opportunity to improve. Hopefully after they analyze what happened they can make improvements. Hope so because the models were consistently wrong with the northern bias. Even the 12 hr plots were way off.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TAD]

The models really struggled with this system. I suspect that its decoupled nature since birth might have something to do with it. Those systems are notoriously hard to predict.

Curious to hear other opinions and some of pros chiming in on what happened.

What happened with the New England trough that was to pull Erika north? That didn't dig south as far as expected either.

[xironman]

Wrong thread

[tgenius]

Seems like no more rain for East coast of FL.. after the lightning/thunder lightshow this morning its been pretty quiet.

[Patrick99]

Yup....even the remnants are a bust. Hardly flooding rains by any stretch.

[CronkPSU]

I thought all the flooding rains were coming tomorrow?