ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[CourierPR]

And for the first time in a long time if they locate a surface LLC there with that swirl north of Cuba the MLC appears to be there as well.[/quote]

Right. Could regeneration take place there? It looks to be building convection.

[wzrgirl1]

I have seen it happen before.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[N2FSU]

Serious question for the promets: if Erika was already forecast to weaken to a TD today and remain that way until early Monday morning when it regained TS strength, why is it "Breaking News" that Erika is no longer a TS? Isn't she doing what she was forecast to do?

[HURRICANELONNY]

So is it official? It dissapated

[Ntxw]

Florida is going to get rain with or without remnants of Erika. The same monsoonal pattern supports it and it also brings shear into the gulf which is why models don't do much with it once there.

[toad strangler]

You had to love the against all odds AND forecasting of the relentless W march into the teeth of the cheese grater chain.

[Dean4Storms]

Florida is going to get rain with or without remnants of Erika. The same monsoonal pattern supports it and it also brings shear into the gulf which is why models don't do much with it once there.

Actually shear is already in the Gulf due to the ULL near SW Alabama, but that ULL is expected to lift NE today and the shear in the SE Gulf lessens.

[jinftl]

Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Ntxw, this is just a terrible setup for the Florida peninsula has we are about to get drenched with the pattern we will be locked into for days to come. For the time being, we have a cut-off Low over around New Orleans into the North Central GOM pumping up moisture on that southwestery upper flow right into the Florida peninsula. Adding insult to injury will be Erika's remnants being picked up within the next 48 hours across Florida.

It is going to be a potential for some flooding across the peninsula all next week becuase the steering flow is going to be very weak as the Blocking ridge north of Florida will keep all this moisture from moving out.

Again, a perfect example of you don't need a classifiable tropical system to cause huge problems. I am very concerned about the huge implications of the rainfall potential across the peninsula all next week.

[cycloneye]

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

[HURRICANELONNY]

next...............

[johngaltfla]

Florida is going to get rain with or without remnants of Erika. The same monsoonal pattern supports it and it also brings shear into the gulf which is why models don't do much with it once there.

Which those of us on the West Coast of Florida really do not need.

[robbielyn]

I stopped following danny when erika got interesting. can you please tell me why fl not get rain from Danny? I know it was a smaller system but is there any chance Erika will totally dissipate to the point it we wont get any rain? there has been flooding where I live so it would be nice if its going to disband as a storm it could just totally disappear.

[Airboy]

What makes them so sure it will not regenerate to a TC again?
And also, how do they act if they think it will be a wave for one day and then it will regenerate to a TC again, would they still "kill it off" and the new TC would be a new named TC?

[Gustywind]

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

Excellent news Cycloneye as Erika should not be serious a threat for our friends
God blessed you maybe some beneficial rains and no more.

[ronjon]

Actually the low level swirl is quite evident on VIS SAT with convection building to the east. The system will now encounter the best conditions over the next 24-36 hours it's experienced over the last 3-4 days. While not saying it'll regenerate, have to keep an eye on possible redevelopment.

[wxman57]

What makes them so sure it will not regenerate to a TC again?
And also, how do they act if they think it will be a wave for one day and then it will regenerate to a TC again, would they still "kill it off" and the new TC would be a new named TC?

Erika has been getting less and less organized for the past 2 days. It lost its circulation yesterday (except for 2-3 small vortices). Conditions in its path are even more hostile than they have been. Thus, downgrade to a disturbance. As I stated on the previous page, if the NHC had thought it would regenerate they would continue advisories as "Depression Erika" and predicted regeneration to a TS.

[psyclone]

The real "tell" that Erika was dead yesterday was the TS wind probabilities chart which showed remarkably low (anomalously so) TS wind percentages for areas in the path of the storm. That, in retrospect, was the biggest statement of all and something to keep in mind for the future. I really like that product and don't think it gets the attention it deserves.

[AdamFirst]

Erika has been getting less and less organized for the past 2 days. It lost its circulation yesterday (except for 2-3 small vortices). Conditions in its path are even more hostile than they have been. Thus, downgrade to a disturbance. As I stated on the previous page, if the NHC had thought it would regenerate they would continue advisories as "Depression Erika" and predicted regeneration to a TS.

So the "center" that is being tracked along the northern coast of Cuba is the mid-level vorticity?

(edit: this place has cleared out since degeneration... )