WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

03C KILO 150829 1200 17.9N 173.9W CPAC 80 976

Eye is trying to clear out, Dvorak responds by skyrocketing.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 17:52:34 N Lon : 174:03:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[Extratropical94]

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND HURRICANE KILO HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAS EXPANDED AND A DISTINCT EYE HAS APPEARED. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 4.5/77 KT FROM
SAB...PHFO AND JTWC. I HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80
KT.

WITH THE EYE DEVELOPING...THE CENTER POSITIONS FROM SAB...PHFO AND
JTWC WERE QUITE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
285/08. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...KILO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST...AROUND THE SOUTHWEST END OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. AFTER 96 HOURS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD NORTH OF KILO...RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE
CURRENT TRACK SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

KILO WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C
WITH AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY ABOUT 6 KT OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
BE QUITE LOW MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH 120 HOURS WITH DOUBLE-DIGIT
SHEAR ONLY FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN INCREASED AGAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH ICON AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. KILO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY FROM 36 HOURS THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.0N 174.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 18.4N 175.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 19.1N 176.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 20.1N 178.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 21.3N 178.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.5N 179.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.5N 180.0E 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 24.6N 178.5E 115 KT 135 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[CrazyC83]

Given the Raw ADT, that forecast is likely conservative.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Would this be considered annular?

[Extratropical94]

Would this be considered annular?

Kilo definitely shows some characteristics of an annular hurricane, the SHIPS output from 12Z didn't classify it as one, but back then the storm looked different from now. Maybe he will pass the check in the 18Z forecast output. It also depends on which criteria you are using.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 17:59:16 N Lon : 174:35:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 965.8mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 6.1 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -29.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

Kilo might beat Jimena to the cat 5 punch...

[Yellow Evan]

Kilo might beat Jimena to the cat 5 punch...

The cloud tops are there, it's just that the eye needs to warm.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 17:55:39 N Lon : 174:49:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 960.1mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.2 6.8

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 291814
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1814 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

A. Hurricane kilo.

B. 29/1730Z.

C. 17.9°N.

D. 174.9°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T6.0/6.0/d2.0/24 hrs.

G. Eir/ir.

H. Remarks: Kilo has undergone rapid intensification. With a well formed eye, center location not problem this morning. Eye pattern with white surrounding shade and an ow eye with cmg or ow eye ring yields DT of 6.0 + 0.5 = 6.5. PT also 6.5. MET is 5.5. Reanaysis of 1130Z fix indicates embedded center Pat with black shade had DT at 5.0 earlier. FT based on DT with limitation of 1.0 increase taken into account.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$

Fujii.

[galaxy401]

It seems like this storm could potentially become one of the longest lived storms out there. It could also pull an Ioke.

The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are solely the opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to your local weather service's products.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN25 KNES 291818
TCSCNP

A. 03C (KILO)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 18.0N

D. 174.9W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.0.
AN OFF-WHITE EYE WITH A WHITE RING YIELDS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +.5
GIVING A DT OF 6.5. MET IS 5.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A
6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF A 6.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

[Extratropical94]

Strong category 3.

CP, 03, 2015082918, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1749W, 110, 952, HU

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 291834

A. HURRICANE 03C (KILO)

B. 29/1731Z

C. 17.97N

D. 174.90W

E. FOUR/GOES15

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET YIELDS A 5.5. DBO
MET/CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  KILO        CP032015  08/29/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   110   123   131   132   134   129   119   117   113   110   110   109   113
V (KT) LAND      110   123   131   132   134   129   119   117   113   110   110   109   113
V (KT) LGE mod   110   126   135   138   139   136   133   129   122   115   112   110   110
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     4     3     6     8     8     7     4     5     7     9    13    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -2    -4    -5    -3     0     0     0     1     5     3    -1    -2
SHEAR DIR        275   300   261   234   221   235   254   243   236   206   256   259   262
SST (C)         28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.1  29.2  29.2  29.1  29.1  29.1  29.1  29.2  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   152   151   153   154   155   155   155   154   153   152   152   154   156
200 MB T (C)   -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -49.7 -50.2 -49.7 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7
TH_E DEV (C)      13    13    13    13    13    13    13    14    13    13    12    13    12
700-500 MB RH     51    50    53    54    53    51    52    48    47    47    48    50    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    20    20    20    23    24    24    27    29    31    33    34    39
850 MB ENV VOR    18    17    21    14    12     9    -4   -14   -11     4    18    34    47
200 MB DIV       -12     2     7    -4    -6    30    -5   -10   -11     4    21    22    22
700-850 TADV      -4    -1     0     0     1     3     1     0     2     3     0     1     5
LAND (KM)       1638  1698  1760  1821  1882  1954  1989  2025  2067  3601  3576  3542  3474
LAT (DEG N)     18.0  18.3  18.6  19.0  19.4  20.5  21.8  22.9  23.8  24.3  24.4  24.4  24.5
LONG(DEG W)    174.9 175.6 176.3 177.0 177.7 178.6 179.1 179.5 179.9 180.1 180.4 181.1 182.3
STM SPEED (KT)     8     7     7     8     8     7     6     5     4     2     2     4     5
HEAT CONTENT      48    47    47    45    43    43    35    24    16    44    45    45    48

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  65            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  669  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   5.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -34. -36. -36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   0.   0.   2.   3.   5.   7.   7.   7.   6.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.   2.   3.   3.
  PERSISTENCE           12.  18.  19.  17.  10.   5.   1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10. -10. -11. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   9.  10.  10.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   5.   8.   8.  14.  15.  18.  21.  24.  29.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          13.  21.  22.  24.  19.   9.   7.   3.   0.   0.  -1.   3.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO       08/29/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  45.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.7 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  42.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   5.1 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  46.0 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  -2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  65.8 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    61% is   4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    61% is   7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    61% is  12.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO       08/29/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

ADt's still on the rise.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 17:52:08 N Lon : 174:56:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 951.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.2 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -19.5C Cloud Region Temp : -74.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

This is going to be an ACE-maker for sure now...

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA21 PHFO 292045
TCMCP1

HURRICANE KILO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 175.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 110SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 175.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 174.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 176.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.5N 177.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.6N 178.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.9N 179.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.8N 179.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.5N 178.5E
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 24.5N 176.5E
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 175.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

KILO INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DISTINCT EYE IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRIC
AND HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES
CAME IN AT 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC.
THE UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE FROM 1800 UTC CAME IN AT 110 KT. BASED ON
A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 110 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MEANS THAT KILO HAS GONE THROUGH RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 270/10 KT. THE SHORT TERM
MOTION HAS BEEN A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT THE GENERAL
SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME. NAMELY...KILO WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL
SHOW THIS SOLUTION BUT DIFFER ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.
ACCOUNTING FOR THE RECENT JOG TO THE LEFT...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN
FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEYOND 24 HOURS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C BENEATH KILO AND ARE
PROJECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. RAMMB/CIRA SHOWS
ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THROUGH 48 HOURS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WAS ABOUT 8 KT ON THE 1800 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH KILO PEAKING AS
A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. THIS FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE KILO MAY GO THROUGH
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE 30 KT RI THRESHOLD IS 61
PERCENT. THUS...REACHING CATEGORY 5 IS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH NOT
COMMON IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 18.0N 175.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 18.5N 176.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 19.5N 177.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 20.6N 178.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 21.9N 179.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 23.8N 179.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 24.5N 178.5E 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 24.5N 176.5E 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA