ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Erika has been getting less and less organized for the past 2 days. It lost its circulation yesterday (except for 2-3 small vortices). Conditions in its path are even more hostile than they have been. Thus, downgrade to a disturbance. As I stated on the previous page, if the NHC had thought it would regenerate they would continue advisories as "Depression Erika" and predicted regeneration to a TS.

Wxman57, had she taken the northern path and into the Bahamas, it is likely we would be talking about a more significant event? That's where the favorable environment was. She took about as tough as path for a cyclone, into the Caribb (needed to avoid), over Hispaniola, interacted with Cuba, and towards gulf shear.

[Agua]

*poof*

[wxman57]

Erika has been getting less and less organized for the past 2 days. It lost its circulation yesterday (except for 2-3 small vortices). Conditions in its path are even more hostile than they have been. Thus, downgrade to a disturbance. As I stated on the previous page, if the NHC had thought it would regenerate they would continue advisories as "Depression Erika" and predicted regeneration to a TS.

Wxman57, had she taken the northern path and into the Bahamas, it is likely we would be talking about a more significant event? That's where the favorable environment was. She took about as tough as path for a cyclone, into the Caribb (needed to avoid), over Hispaniola, interacted with Cuba, and towards gulf shear.

That northern path would have been its best chance of survival. But if had become stronger it may have recurved east of Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

I still see a nice tight Vort moving WNW north of the Cuban Coast. Writing this off completely is not so smart over 85F SST's!

[boca]

How much rain should S Fla expect from Erika's remnants here on the SE coast?

[TexasF6]

I don't think Erica is done yet at all folks. This "dissappation" looks to have created "two hearts" of Erica so to speak? I see a weaker mid level vorticy in that cluster of convection SE of Jamacia; furthermore, the stronger circulation traversing the coast of Cuba looks impressive, most impressive, on the visible satelite this morning. The Meterological Obi Wan has not taught us well if we should snooze and be happygolucky and fail to monitor this storm. There is more to this than meets the eye with her today, methinks. Bones is scratching his chin a little this morning....I am glad our friend Gusty is doing alright, and will have prayers for the ones lost to Erica this week.








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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[AdamFirst]

How much rain should S Fla expect from Erika's remnants here on the SE coast?

From the NWS Miami disco this morning:

DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ERIKA PASSES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL GENERAL TOTALS WILL BE
IN THE RANGE OF 2-4" THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTER BANDS SET UP ACROSS ANY ONE AREA. THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO TO UPDATE
POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

[SouthFloridian92]

Erika sure trolled us.

[CourierPR]

I still see a nice tight Vort moving WNW north of the Cuban Coast. Writing this off completely is not so smart over 85F SST's!

I believe you are correct. That cluster off the NE tip of the Cuban coast looks active on visible satellite. Wasn't it Yogi Berra who said, "It ain't over until it's over"?

[northjaxpro]

Gustywind, great to know you are OK after Erika's deadly visit through the Leeward Islands. However, so tragic the deaths which occured in Dominica and the terrible flooding. My prayers go out to all there and also to the people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, who are experience flooding and mudslides at this time.

[northjaxpro]

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, great to know you are OK after Erika's deadly visit through the Leeward Islands. However, so tragic the deaths which occured in Dominica and the terrible flooding. My prayers go out to all there and also to the people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, who are experience flooding and mudslides at this time.

That's terrible ! I pray for all who are on the path of Erika! Hope that DR and Haiti will not be too much impacted even if things seem worrying too...

[Gustywind]

I don't think Erica is done yet at all folks. This "dissappation" looks to have created "two hearts" of Erica so to speak? I see a weaker mid level vorticy in that cluster of convection SE of Jamacia; furthermore, the stronger circulation traversing the coast of Cuba looks impressive, most impressive, on the visible satelite this morning. The Meterological Obi Wan has not taught us well if we should snooze and be happygolucky and fail to monitor this storm. There is more to this than meets the eye with her today, methinks. Bones is scratching his chin a little this morning....I am glad our friend Gusty is doing alright, and will have prayers for the ones lost to Erica this week.
Tkanks to you, i'm glad to see that you have a big thought for us and Dominica. Guadeloupe is ok but Dominica's nightmare continues as deathtool is climbing to maybe at least 40 We pray for them and hope a quick recovery even if things are terrible in the South part of Dominica. Insane pics and videos have been shared on our topic, go on to have a better idea of the catastrophic situation viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117486&hilit=&start=80

By the way, hope that continues to weaken before it treks on your direction and bring only rain and no more







____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[got ants?]

I don't think Erica is done yet at all folks. This "dissappation" looks to have created "two hearts" of Erica so to speak? I see a weaker mid level vorticy in that cluster of convection SE of Jamacia; furthermore, the stronger circulation traversing the coast of Cuba looks impressive, most impressive, on the visible satelite this morning. The Meterological Obi Wan has not taught us well if we should snooze and be happygolucky and fail to monitor this storm. There is more to this than meets the eye with her today, methinks. Bones is scratching his chin a little this morning....I am glad our friend Gusty is doing alright, and will have prayers for the ones lost to Erica this week.

Looking at visible radar, it looks like the northen vortice is way away from the thunderstorms of the remnants. Couple that with lack of inflow, I highly doubt we'll see any signifinacnt development. And then it will be picked up with the trough and rolled away.

Without stating the obvious... in my unedumacated opinion...








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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.[/quote]

[emeraldislenc]

The models really had a hard tine with Erika. It really could have been a different story this morning if the storm had gone north of PR I am certain we would have had a very strong hurricane on our hands. It will be interesting to see how the models preform
During the rest of the hurricane season. Also I bet there is a lot of frustration at the NHC over model performance.
Our prayers go to the people who suffered loss during the rains in the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

I still see a nice tight Vort moving WNW north of the Cuban Coast. Writing this off completely is not so smart over 85F SST's!

But isn't it a fast moving and pretty naked tight swirl due to strong shear causing thunderstorm blowoff to the east? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, this does not look primed to redevelop into too much at least anytime soon. Anyone disagree?

[psyclone]

Note the big outflow boundary blasting north/northwestward.

[CourierPR]

I still see a nice tight Vort moving WNW north of the Cuban Coast. Writing this off completely is not so smart over 85F SST's!

But isn't it a fast moving and pretty naked tight swirl due to strong shear causing thunderstorm blowoff to the east? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, this does not look primed to redevelop into too much at least anytime soon. Anyone disagree?

I think it looks like it's attempting to wrap. I'm probably wrong, though.

[psyclone]

WPC 7 day QPF broad brushes most of eastern time zone FL with 3-5"...nothing we can't handle and that may decrease with Erika's dissipation. Nevertheless it's probably going to be a wetter than normal week.

[wxman57]

Remnants of Erika are heading for even stronger shear in the Gulf of Mexico. It's "over" as far as regeneration to a TS. However, tropical disturbances can produce quite a bit of rainfall if they move slowly across an area.

I heard on TWC that Florida announced school closures on Monday? They may want to re-think that and take a look Sunday night to see if there might be any areas with major flooding Monday morning across the lower peninsula.