ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[StormingB81]

Remnants of Erika are heading for even stronger shear in the Gulf of Mexico. It's "over" as far as regeneration to a TS. However, tropical disturbances can produce quite a bit of rainfall if they move slowly across an area.

I heard on TWC that Florida announced school closures on Monday? They may want to re-think that and take a look Sunday night to see if there might be any areas with major flooding Monday morning across the lower peninsula.

Here in central Florida they said that call will be made Sunday.

[Downdraft]

Since both Danny and Erika followed somewhat similar paths are we seeing a trend regarding the path of future CV storms this season?

[AdamFirst]

FIU said they would make a decision on Monday classes by tonight, but I fully expect classes to be in session Monday.

Since both Danny and Erika followed somewhat similar paths are we seeing a trend regarding the path of future CV storms this season?

I don't think that the path will be a trend, but the overall hostile environment will continue, especially as any system approaches the Caribbean.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

The LLC is gradually tightening with more convection expanding to the east. shear has dropped off less than 20 kts now and will fall even more the next 24 hours. May be done but its in a area where it could make a come back - I never write these systems off that are left over from named storms.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[tolakram]

Floater is following the swirl. Hit advanced controls and turn off all but last 4 or 5 frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL052015&starting_image=2015AL05_1KMSRVIS_201508282000.GIF

[BobHarlem]

Swirl seems to be moving fairly quickly, north of Puerto Padre in Cuba now. going through past model runs it the actual positions and timing matches closest to the 6z GFS from Friday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=13

[TexasF6]

I don't think Erica is done yet at all folks. This "dissappation" looks to have created "two hearts" of Erica so to speak? I see a weaker mid level vorticy in that cluster of convection SE of Jamacia; furthermore, the stronger circulation traversing the coast of Cuba looks impressive, most impressive, on the visible satelite this morning. The Meterological Obi Wan has not taught us well if we should snooze and be happygolucky and fail to monitor this storm. There is more to this than meets the eye with her today, methinks. Bones is scratching his chin a little this morning....I am glad our friend Gusty is doing alright, and will have prayers for the ones lost to Erica this week.
Tkanks to you, i'm glad to see that you have a big thought for us and Dominica. Guadeloupe is ok but Dominica's nightmare continues as deathtool is climbing to maybe at least 40 We pray for them and hope a quick recovery even if things are terrible in the South part of Dominica. Insane pics and videos have been shared on our topic, go on to have a better idea of the catastrophic situation viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117486&hilit=&start=80

By the way, hope that continues to weaken before it treks on your direction and bring only rain and no more


You are welcome Gusty! I had no idea the death toll had risen to 40. Wow. Prayers needed indeed. Erica is running away from her convection since daybreak when I saw a chance for her. Never discount a broken storm in the tropics though. History has taught us that. Gusty, where is that link? It did not work for me?




____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[Patrick99]

I won't give up completely. For what it's worth, it looks like more convection, closer to whatever remnant swirl is there, than its shown in days, to be honest. And it's nearing or already over the bathtub water. I'd like to see it slow down....if it slowed I'd be more bullish.

[wxman57]

Since both Danny and Erika followed somewhat similar paths are we seeing a trend regarding the path of future CV storms this season?

That's what I expected for the season - a dead MDR. Micro hurricane Danny found a tiny spot of favorable conditions and briefly became a Cat 3, but I think that will be the exception rather than the rule this season.

[wxman57]

Take a look at the monster shear zone that awaits Erika tomorrow in the Gulf. It's done. Just some rain for Florida.

[Weatherlover12]

Well i guess erika is gone. I will keep a watch on the circulation to the NE.
It wont be smart of me to return my items to Home depot. I have a feeling this wont be the only time this year FL will be targeted by a storm of some sort.
Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

[tolakram]

Live visible. This thing is moving.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[got ants?]

Am I reading this right? The NHC still has Erika as a TS, and place it 65 south of Gitmo? And heading DUE WEST?

[wxman57]

Well i guess erika is gone. I will keep a watch on the circulation to the NE.
It wont be smart of me to return my items to Home depot. I have a feeling this wont be the only time this year FL will be targeted by a storm of some sort.
Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

Unless you bought perishable food from Home Depot it will still be good next season. Add whatever you bought to your hurricane kit. I have 2 big kits full of stuff.

[crimi481]

To my non-pro eye - the center is reforming just north of east coast of Cuba
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[got ants?]

WTF is this??

Tropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological
analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.
...Special features...
Tropical Storm Erika is centered near 19.1n 75.1w at 29/0900 UTC
or about 65 nm S of Guantanamo Cuba moving W at 17 kt. Estimated
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. An area of moderate to isolated strong
convection extends from 15n-22n between 68w-75w. The main impact
outside of tropical storm force winds will be heavy rainfall
across W Hispaniola and E Cuba as well as the adjacent coastal
waters resulting in flash flooding and dangerous mud slides. See
latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc for more details.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/#EDmYoDXlKQzJrqCg.99

[Extratropical94]

WTF is this??

Tropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological
analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.
...Special features...
Tropical Storm Erika is centered near 19.1n 75.1w at 29/0900 UTC
or about 65 nm S of Guantanamo Cuba moving W at 17 kt. Estimated
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. An area of moderate to isolated strong
convection extends from 15n-22n between 68w-75w. The main impact
outside of tropical storm force winds will be heavy rainfall
across W Hispaniola and E Cuba as well as the adjacent coastal
waters resulting in flash flooding and dangerous mud slides. See
latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc for more details.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/#EDmYoDXlKQzJrqCg.99

That's the tropical weather discussion (TWD) from 3 hours ago, before Erika was downgraded.

[BobHarlem]

WTF is this??

You are looking at old data, 8AM position was relocated north of Cuba, and an hour and a half later they decided to downgrade it to a low pressure trough and discontinue advisories. It's very important to have MULTIPLE places to check on storms, NHC being the very first.

[psyclone]

WTF is this??

Tropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological
analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.
...Special features...
Tropical Storm Erika is centered near 19.1n 75.1w at 29/0900 UTC
or about 65 nm S of Guantanamo Cuba moving W at 17 kt. Estimated
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. An area of moderate to isolated strong
convection extends from 15n-22n between 68w-75w. The main impact
outside of tropical storm force winds will be heavy rainfall
across W Hispaniola and E Cuba as well as the adjacent coastal
waters resulting in flash flooding and dangerous mud slides. See
latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc for more details.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/#EDmYoDXlKQzJrqCg.99

That was issued before dissipation.

[galaxy401]

Any reports of damage in Hispaniola?