ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Erika's demise isn't surprising. Neither would be her resurrection. Again, for the past couple of days, the focus has been on possible reformation after Hispaniola. Erika now has about 36 hours to put something together. She already has a (weak) circulation north of Cuba (which is North of where any remnants were expected to be right now), which is almost completely convection covered now, as convection has been decently firing around it for the past few hours. Should anything reform, currently the circulation North of Cuba is along the Northern edge of the NHC's cones from yesterday.

Anyone know if Recon will still be flying out into what's left of Erika throughout today?

[CourierPR]

Is there another center attempting to form further southeast near the Mona Pass?

[Extratropical94]

Erika's demise isn't surprising. Neither would be her resurrection. Again, for the past couple of days, the focus has been on possible reformation after Hispaniola. Erika now has about 36 hours to put something together. She already has a (weak) circulation north of Cuba (which is North of where any remnants were expected to be right now), which is almost completely convection covered now, as convection has been decently firing around it for the past few hours. Should anything reform, currently the circulation North of Cuba is along the Northern edge of the NHC's cones from yesterday.

Anyone know if Recon will still be flying out into what's left of Erika throughout today?

Not according to TCPOD. All tasked missions are canceled. New missions are tasked for tomorrow afternoon, more depending on Erika's health.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. REMNANTS OF ERIKA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 30/1900Z                   A. 31/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 1305A ERIKA          B. AFXXX 1405A ERIKA
       C. 30/1800Z                   C. 31/1000Z
       D. 25.5N 82.5W                D. 27.0N 83.5W
       E. 30/1830Z TO 30/2200Z       E. 31/1100Z TO 31/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT            F. SFC TO 10,000FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       IS VIABLE.
    3. REMARKS: ALL PREVIOUSLY TASKED MISSIONS ON ERIKA CANCELED.
       THE WB-57 (NASA 928) WILL FLY A 5 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
       DEPARTING 30/1400Z. 55,000-65,000FT. POSSIBLE 36 DROPS.

[StormTracker]

Erika's demise isn't surprising. Neither would be her resurrection. Again, for the past couple of days, the focus has been on possible reformation after Hispaniola. Erika now has about 36 hours to put something together. She already has a (weak) circulation north of Cuba (which is North of where any remnants were expected to be right now), which is almost completely convection covered now, as convection has been decently firing around it for the past few hours. Should anything reform, currently the circulation North of Cuba is along the Northern edge of the NHC's cones from yesterday.

Anyone know if Recon will still be flying out into what's left of Erika throughout today?

There was a recon flight in earlier this a.m. and what they found( basically nothing)is why they discontinued watches/warnings & advisories. At this point I personally don't think they will waste any more time or money on what's left of Erika...ST

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Recon will fly out tomorrow afternoon IF, and IF it appears that Erika is regenerating. I will say that right now looking at satellite imagery she is fighting real hard to get convection to catch up to that low level swirl. That may happen tonight once that low level swirl reaches 80 degrees Longitude and rounds the periphery of the subtropical ridge feeling the weakness of the cut-off Upper Low in the North Central GOM.

[gatorcane]

One other problem with regeneration is that the wind shear is quite strong. Actually it looks like the "favorable" conditions never happened had Erika taken the northern route through the Bahamas as the wind shear looks high there too. It's just too hostile out there for TCs it seems.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is there a chance of regeneration? I realize that the likelyhood is next to 0, but being real, what are we looking at here?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is there a chance of regeneration? I realize that the likelyhood is next to 0, but being real, what are we looking at here?

NHC will let us know in half an hour with the TWO.

[AdamFirst]

Is there a chance of regeneration? I realize that the likelyhood is next to 0, but being real, what are we looking at here?

There is a very small window, once it nears the Florida Straits. It's making some headway now (convection popping over the center), but it's moving too fast. As it nears the Straits it will slow down and begin the turn to the north. At that point it has a chance of regenerating to a depression or weak tropical storm, but highly unlikely more than that.

[northjaxpro]

Is there a chance of regeneration? I realize that the likelyhood is next to 0, but being real, what are we looking at here?

There is a very brief window, maybe 36 hours at best for Erica to regenerate, but I would put that percentage maybe at 20% at best. I put forth an explanation of its slim chance of regenartion on the previous page.

[cycloneye]

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Storm Erika. The remnants of Erika, a trough of low
pressure, are currently located near central Cuba and the central
Bahamas and moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. This system
is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity, and recent
satellite wind data indicate it is producing winds to tropical storm
force. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for
re-development of the system into a tropical cyclone. However,
conditions may become more conducive Sunday or Monday while it moves
northwestward to northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to
spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the
Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida
during the next couple of days. Additional information on this
system can be found in marine forecasts and local forecast products
issued by the National Weather Service and the meteorological
services of Cuba and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[SouthFloridawx]

That's what I was pretty much thinking. The mountains killed another one, unfortunately for them. Any word about Cuba, and its residents? Btw. good explanation.

[TheAustinMan]

ASCAT pass from around two hours ago --

[idaknowman]

A great post from Bryan Norcross on his Facebook page

The Dying Erika Dilemma
-snip-
The dilemma here is that even though there is not much difference in the weather expected in Florida from the Remnants of Erika than if the system had held together as a Tropical Depression or 40 mph Tropical Storm, the alerting is very different. Winds at the coast could easily gust to Tropical Storm strength, but because the NHC rules don’t allow them to issue a Tropical Storm Watch – meaning winds of 40 mph or higher are possible – for a degenerated system (even if it might reorganize), they had to take down the watches and warnings. There are plans in place to fix this hole in the system, which can’t come too soon.

I don't get it. Why are those NHC rules in place? What harm would issuing a watch for a degenerated system create? I would think that would only be of help to the public.

[tailgater]

I'm just getting back to watching her a bit and I think the main gyre is over south central Cuba now with that low level ( coc) rotating around it, Which doesn't stand much of a chance to survive another 36 hrs, and the main gyre will likely stay over Cuba for a good while. the only chance is there is something south of Cuba and stays on a westward course which is highly unlikely. I think she's toast so lets she if can prove us ( me)wrong.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NHC was extremely careful with their wording for sure in that TWO update. They know how much scrutiny they are under right now and they want to make mention the important elements clear to the public, especially after they downgraded it to being an open trough (remnants). They put the percentage at 40% through 5 days. Now, for me that is interesting they placed the percentage rather high considering the unfavorable conditions forecast after the next 48 hours imo for which Erica will be encountering. I am wondering what they are seeing to give pause to a 40% chance of re-development right now? I am contributing this to a possible scenario in which after about Tuesday, the cut off Upper low is going to retrograde west as strong ridging holds firm from the Western Atlantic. My thought is Erika is going to potential meander or stall out due to the weak steering should this scenario play out. The question is where Erika will be when the stall occurs. At this point, she could be somewhere in the eastern GOM, or across North Florida, just speculation right now. But, the fact NHC placed it at 40% is hinting this clue at me.

BTW, the models a few days ago were hinting at the scenario of a potential stall with Erika occuring. Don't lose recollection of that.

[psyclone]

A great post from Bryan Norcross on his Facebook page

The Dying Erika Dilemma
-snip-
The dilemma here is that even though there is not much difference in the weather expected in Florida from the Remnants of Erika than if the system had held together as a Tropical Depression or 40 mph Tropical Storm, the alerting is very different. Winds at the coast could easily gust to Tropical Storm strength, but because the NHC rules don’t allow them to issue a Tropical Storm Watch – meaning winds of 40 mph or higher are possible – for a degenerated system (even if it might reorganize), they had to take down the watches and warnings. There are plans in place to fix this hole in the system, which can’t come too soon.

I don't get it. Why are those NHC rules in place? What harm would issuing a watch for a degenerated system create? I would think that would only be of help to the public.

I don't think it matters too much. I'm interested in fewer watches/warnings that carry more weight, not more of them. the remnants could cause weather that can be easily handled by special marine warnings in marine areas and usual land based special weather statements we see all the time in the Summer.

[blp]

Well NHC gives it 40% for regeneration.

[psyclone]

40% is actually not too shabby. nevertheless as we have discussed many times the difference in sensible wx between a vigorous disturbance/depression/low end TS is nominal so it's probably academic hair splitting.

[Frank P]

Update: after further review of the loops this band actually was an outflow boundary... first time I've seen any real convection on the western side of the tropical storm formally named Erika in recent days... either that or a massive out flow its getting ready to chunk!