ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ninel conde]

One other problem with regeneration is that the wind shear is quite strong. Actually it looks like the "favorable" conditions never happened had Erika taken the northern route through the Bahamas as the wind shear looks high there too. It's just too hostile out there for TCs it seems.

favorable conditions are often dependent on a strong storm to be there. erika didnt go north of the islands so the conditions turned hostile.

[jlauderdal]

Well NHC gives it 40% for regeneration.

40% this close to the USA would have this board hopping if it wasn't degenerated erika in play

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[BobHarlem]

The final discussion for Erika mentioned this

"The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. "

Which is counter to what wxman is saying?

[Dean4Storms]

The final discussion for Erika mentioned this

"The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. "

Which is counter to what wxman is saying?

Shear maps I've seen have it lessening under 15 kts in the SE Gulf by the time Erika's remnants get there tomorrow. The ULL causing the SW shear is forecast to lift NE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

[blp]

Well NHC gives it 40% for regeneration.

[]http://i58.tinypic.com/5v2mv4.png[/img]

40% this close to the USA would have this board hopping if it wasn't degenerated erika in play

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Yep, I think people are exhausted by Ericka. I am one of those but still I am here for some reason. I think now it is more like I want to see if Ericka can do it again and defy the experts.

[Sanibel]

It'll probably refire, but once again might not mean anything.


Hard to say. Sometimes struggling systems finally get it together once they head North. I doubt it will be naked when it passes us to the west.

[Dean4Storms]

This sure looks like a pretty good feeder band that just developed on the western side of the LLC... first time I've seen any real convection on the western side of the tropical storm formally named Erika in recent days... either that or a massive out flow its getting ready to chunk!

If this Vort slows down and the convection increases around it then I believe it could regenerate. There is still a good bit of energy there and a vort this small is likely not getting picked up by the Global Models much like they missed Danny.

[blp]

The final discussion for Erika mentioned this

"The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. "

Which is counter to what wxman is saying?

Shear maps I've seen have it lessening under 15 kts in the SE Gulf by the time Erika's remnants get there tomorrow. The ULL causing the SW shear is forecast to lift NE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

Shear forecast are so unreliable. With Ericka they all had very favorable conditions in the Bahamas and now they are unfavorable. I have also learned that in El Nino years it is even worse.

[Extratropical94]

90L INVEST 150829 1800 22.4N 77.5W ATL 35 1012

[Sanibel]

Watch what happens after it crosses the Gulf Stream.

[Frank P]

This sure looks like a pretty good feeder band that just developed on the western side of the LLC... first time I've seen any real convection on the western side of the tropical storm formally named Erika in recent days... either that or a massive out flow its getting ready to chunk!

If this Vort slows down and the convection increases around it then I believe it could regenerate. There is still a good bit of energy there and a vort this small is likely not getting picked up by the Global Models much like they missed Danny.

I just looked at the vis loop and what I thought might be a western side feeder band is actually looking more like an outflow boundary... shear still too strong and I think its also going to fast.. she is in a hurry to go somewhere for sure..

[SunnyThoughts]

According to The Weather Channel, since Ex-Erika has now been classified as Invest 90L, if it becomes a tropical Storm it will be given a new name.


So if it were to regenerate into a storm ( Big fat if) it would have a new name? After all the craziness with this storm, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

[blp]

Here it is. 90l.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2015&MO=08&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=90L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/ATL/tropics/track_vis/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi

[northjaxpro]

I am curious as to why NHC re-designated Ericka's remanants as 90L? I can't recall a recent time when NHC did that with a tropical cyclone's remnants.

Apparently they must have recently changed their critieria about this becuase in past times I was of the thought that if remnants can be traced and tracked from the point NHC declassified the cyclone to remnants, that if regeneration occurs, that system would retain its name. So, when this change?

[BobHarlem]

I am curious as to why NHC re-designated Ericka's remanants as 90L? I can't recall a recent time when NHC did that with a tropical cyclone's remnants.

Apparently they must have recently changed their critieria about this becuase in past times I was of the thought that if remnants can be traced and tracked from the point NHC declassified the cyclone to remnants, that if regeneration occurs, that system would retain its name. So, when this change?

Just when you thought Erika couldn't be any more confusing for the general public, first that 8AM Track graphic and now this -- not to mention the entire forecast since Thursday. (Hell it's confusing for most of us here)

[AutoPenalti]

According to The Weather Channel, since Ex-Erika has now been classified as Invest 90L, if it becomes a tropical Storm it will be given a new name.


So if it were to regenerate into a storm ( Big fat if) it would have a new name? After all the craziness with this storm, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

They are wrong. Why reclassify it a different name? It makes no sense to do that.

[northjaxpro]

The decision by NHC to designate Erika's remnants to 90L is really a head scratcher for me!! This really caught me by surprise and many other people will be as well.

[Evil Jeremy]

One benefit of the new classification is that the hurricane models will be run for the system. I remember countless times declassified storms with a chance of regeneration did not have UKMET/GFDL/HWRF runs because there was no active invest attached. I'm sure there are other internal benefits to having an active Invest, and of course they couldn't go back to 98L (I think that's what Erika was, right?)

[Extratropical94]

According to The Weather Channel, since Ex-Erika has now been classified as Invest 90L, if it becomes a tropical Storm it will be given a new name.


So if it were to regenerate into a storm ( Big fat if) it would have a new name? After all the craziness with this storm, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

They are wrong. Why reclassify it a different name? It makes no sense to do that.

They won't call it anything except Erika. We had the same discussion three years ago with Helena. When TD07 dissipated and its circulation was disrupted und became difficult to track, the redeveloping system was still called 07L (TS Helena near the Yucatan).

As to the invest numbering, Dorian 2013 was Invest 98L before formation, then dissipated and was given the invest number 91L. When it regenerated near Florida, it was still 04L (TD Dorian).

In 2005, it was the other way round. TD10 dissipated and the moisture and energy persisted to eventually become TD12 (Katrina).

[northjaxpro]

According to The Weather Channel, since Ex-Erika has now been classified as Invest 90L, if it becomes a tropical Storm it will be given a new name.


So if it were to regenerate into a storm ( Big fat if) it would have a new name? After all the craziness with this storm, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

They are wrong. Why reclassify it a different name? It makes no sense to do that.

They won't call it anything except Erika. We had the same discussion three years ago with Helena. When TD07 dissipated and its circulation was disrupted und became difficult to track, the redeveloping system was still called 07L (TS Helena near the Yucatan).

As to the invest numbering, Dorian 2013 was Invest 98L before formation, then dissipated and was given the invest number 91L. When it regenerated near Florida, it was still 04L (TD Dorian).

In 2005, it was the other way round. TD10 dissipated and the moisture and energy persisted to eventually become TD12 (Katrina).
In 2005, it was the other way round. TD10 dissipated and the moisture and energy persisted to eventually become TD12 (Katrina).

Ok , thanks for the explanation, This somehow slipped my mind about the re-numbering procedure. But, this system if it re-develops will still be referred to as Erika as it should be!