ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

[knotimpaired]

I am curious about the photo on the top under "forum rules" showing Active Tropical Storms and Invests.

What is the purple line extending from TS Fred into the Caribbean?

[tolakram]

I am curious about the photo on the top under "forum rules" showing Active Tropical Storms and Invests.

What is the purple line extending from TS Fred into the Caribbean?

That is Erika's track.

[knotimpaired]

I am curious about the photo on the top under "forum rules" showing Active Tropical Storms and Invests.

What is the purple line extending from TS Fred into the Caribbean?

That is Erika's track.

Thanks, I wish you had a "thumbs up" button

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
800 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

...FRED EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 19.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Dean4Storms]

Impressive System to develop right away like this!

[GeneratorPower]

It's rare that a system developing this far east makes it all the way to the U.S.

[CrazyC83]

It's rare that a system developing this far east makes it all the way to the U.S.

Especially when it becomes strong right out of the gate. Could it recurve into W Africa or SW Europe?

[HurricaneBelle]

It's rare that a system developing this far east makes it all the way to the U.S.

Especially when it becomes strong right out of the gate. Could it recurve into W Africa or SW Europe?

NHC has it going a good distance west into the Central Atlantic, so the more likely recurve scenario is that the Azores are threatened, then possibly northern Europe.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Jeez that is one big system! Really looks like Fred by now, and looking at the ascat image in the previous page, this storm looks like it's really trying to develop. Good thing is that development and strengthening is usually slow with systems of large size. Hopefully the Cape Verde islands do not experience damaging weather from this.

something that popped in my mind just now, not saying this will happen at all but imagine if this became FRED and went on to hit land, especially Florida. The last was WILMA, that would be some Flintstones irony

Seriously though, I think this one is worth watching as we near the Peak of Hurricane season.

There's an exactly 0% chance of this making it to the US, so we'll have to wait till 2021 for that.

In all seriousness, never heard of a hurricane watch for the CV islands. That by itself makes this storm slightly more interesting.

You know, for not having a Pro-met designation or a disclaimer in your post, 0% sure is a mighty definitive assessment. Where do I send the lawsuit when this hits the US somewhere?

[AutoPenalti]

As long as it doesn't become more than a T.S. I don't see a recurve scenario yet.

[abajan]

... Six storms, one major, and one (possibly two) hurricane by the end of August: The numbers are certainly doing better than the last few years, especially considering we're in a strong Nino.

Well, a few days ago one of S2K's promets pointed out that there's actually no proven correlation between El Niño and the number of Atlantic cyclones. I think El Niño does influence how strong the systems get, due to vertical wind shear though.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Warning for Cape Verde Islands

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS REPLACES THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 19.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM




TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

Visible satellite imagery indicates that convection associated
with the tropical cyclone continues to organize. A curved band of
convection now wraps almost completely around the center and recent
images show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlier
WindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core.
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based on
these the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

The environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengthening
during the next 24 to 36 hours. During that time, there will
be sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remain
low, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperatures
of 27 to 28C. Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated and
the SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within
24 hours. Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWF
models, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves through
the Cape Verde Islands. After 36 hours, lower sea surface
temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stable
environment should cause weakening.

Fred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm is
forecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical
ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands. In a couple of days,
the ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred to
turn west-northwestward. As Fred weakens and become a more shallow
cyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected. The NHC track is near the consensus of the
ECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours. Later in the period, the NHC
forecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this track
is along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement with
the ECMWF.

Based on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological
Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning
for those islands.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 13.4N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.3N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.7N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.2N 25.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.3N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 19.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Lifeless]

Wow, Hurricane by the time it reaches the Cape Verde Islands? That's certainly unusual.

[galaxy401]

Public Advisory is still not out. Unusually later than the other updates.

[CrazyC83]

This could be historic. Do we have any members in Cape Verde?

[HurricaneBelle]

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.

Not only that, but the NHC's Wind Speed Probabilities product doesn't list any locations in Cape Verde as well, which goes to show how rare and unexpected a tropical cylcone impacting that area is.

[AutoPenalti]

[cycloneye]

We are witnessing history here.Only two Hurricanes have crossed the Cape Verde Islands since 1850.

[Lifeless]

We are witnessing history here.Only two Hurricanes have crossed the Cape Verde Islands since 1850.

Debbie was one of the storms that almost hit Ireland as a Category 1 Hurricane too, only got downgraded to a extra-tropical storm as it made its final approach, although the effects on Ireland were just as bad. Lets hope that a possible history-making event doesn't cause too much harm as it passes through.

[CrazyC83]

We are witnessing history here.Only two Hurricanes have crossed the Cape Verde Islands since 1850.

Debbie was one of the storms that almost hit Ireland as a Category 1 Hurricane too, only got downgraded to a extra-tropical storm as it made its final approach, although the effects on Ireland were just as bad. Lets hope that a possible history-making event doesn't cause too much harm as it passes through.

Reanalysis I believe shows Debbie was a landfalling 40-50 kt tropical storm in Cape Verde. Also before the satellite era, the data is likely very sparse out there.