ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ronjon]

Definite low level center developing west of key west - becoming apparent now on radar with banding developing. This is far enough offshore to remain at sea as it slowly slides north.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[ronjon]

Radar rainfall totals since 3 pm yesterday show 5-6 inch amounts from Dade County to Key Largo.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[northjaxpro]

Low level circulation becoming better defined just about 50-60 miles west of Key West.

[northjaxpro]

Also, the ULL is showing a bit more than a drift now, moving a little quicker to the northeast across Alabama currently. That is forecast to continue to lift out northeast. The farther way the ULL moves away, upper conditions will improve for 90L to possibly develop across the Eastern GOM the next couple of days. Also, 90l is moving very slowly to the north/northwest currently, more like a drift currently.

[robbielyn]

I hope it develops into a moderate ts. no higher. I want a little wind with my rain

[ronjon]

Also, the ULL is showing a bit more than a drift now, moving a little quicker to the northeast across Alabama currently. That is forecast to continue to lift out northeast. The farther way the ULL moves away, upper conditions will improve for 90L to possibly develop across the Eastern GOM the next couple of days. Also, 90l is moving very slowly to the north/northwest currently, more like a drift currently.

Yeah NorthJax the ULL is starting to really move out NE. Shear is still too high right now where the LLC is located. Probably not going to do much over the next 12-24 hrs with shear still high.

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is
producing areas of heavy rain over portions of south Florida, the
Florida Keys, and western Cuba. Although development of this
system appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to spread northward across
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Monday.
Additional information on this system can be found in local forecast
products issued by the National Weather Service and the
meteorological service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[northjaxpro]

I think upper level conditions around 90L may get better with reduced shear levels within the next 24 hours. There is still a slight chance of development.

[wxman57]

Redevelopment chances are still near zero. There's a surface trof extending from eastern Georgia to west of Tampa to west of the Keys. There is no LLC. However, pressures in the eastern Gulf are relatively high - and rising. Precip associated with Erika's remnants will be moving northward with the strong south-southwest upper-level flow. Nothing significant south of Cuba, either. Time to look elsewhere for development.

[northjaxpro]

Redevelopment chances are still near zero. There's a surface trof extending from eastern Georgia to west of Tampa to west of the Keys. There is no LLC. However, pressures in the eastern Gulf are relatively high - and rising. Precip associated with Erika's remnants will be moving northward with the strong south-southwest upper-level flow. Nothing significant south of Cuba, either. Time to look elsewhere for development.

Well, now that the voice of reason wxman57 has chimed in and spoken, we will heed your command lol.... It is amazing how you are always well timed with your thoughts on these forums aren't you 57. Especially when a system is either in a weakened state or has died.

However, thanks , thank you for keeping Bones away out of respect to the tragedies which occured in Dominica and in Haiti!!

[tolakram]

live visible
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[Frank2]

Thanks, wxman57 - we had about 6 months of lightning here in Broward County, from 1 to 6 this morning. About 7, I noticed a tight swirl on radar that moved north from Florida Bay through the interior Everglades and north towards west of Lake Okeechobee. Once it moved out of the area, the weather improved...

[bamajammer4eva]

Wave easy to pick out here



http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 25.18,3000

[floridasun78]

my area have been dry past hours

[Hurricane Alexis]

So far it's been a good afternoon to be outside. The temperature feels nice.

[xironman]

The RGB shows the old MLC coming up to the Isle of Youth, still nothing at the surface though

[Sanibel]

Lingering convection should always be watched at this time of the year. Shear isn't too promising though.

[cycloneye]

No chance at all.Down to 0%

The remnants of Erika, a trough of low pressure over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, continue to produce areas of heavy rains over
portions of the Florida peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the
western half of Cuba. Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for development, and tropical cyclone formation is not
expected. Additional information on this system can be found in
local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service and
the meteorological service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[Dean_175]

Looks to have completely merged with the broader degenerate frontal system over the lower SE US. No organization at all and under high shear. Though we won't see development, its helping to continue the rain we have seen here in FL the past few days.

[psyclone]

It's finally dead, Jim. Fortunately we haven't had heavy rain in my neighborhood although areas not far away have. quite happy to put this one to rest.