ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

most certainly peaked. Looks to be running into strong southwesterly shear

[leanne_uk]

I'm not sure to be totally honest.... I've not been able to get a lot of info from her or pics as of yet.

Really wish that we had some live radar feeds so we could get a better idea of what is going on.

I initially thought that Sal would end up on the west of the eye Wall.... I am not so sure any more

Any idea if it is surge flooding or freshwater runoff?

[weatherwindow]

When was the last time the Cape Verde islands had a direct landfall by a tropical storm or hurricane? This might just be one...

While many tropical systems have affected the Cape Verdes, direct impacts by hurricanes are extremely rare. Since 1851, only three hurricanes have landfell the archipelago. In addition to Fred, Debbie in 1961 and an unnamed hurricane in 1892 are the only hurricanes of record to impact the Cape Verse Islands.....Greeting from Key West.....Rich

[KBBOCA]

Just had news from my friend who is in Santa Maria.... There is currently around 4 inches on the ground in her hotel and the winds are intensifying as expected.

They still have power at the minute but she doesn't know how much longer it will hold out. I am hoping that she is able to get pics over to me once things settle down and I shall post them accordingly.

The worrying thing is that no one at all seems to have been prepared for this.... I know that getting a hurricane is pretty much unheard of but even yesterday when my friend tried to speak to the staff about what was happening, she was told not to worry it will probably just rain for a bit and be a bit windy.
I'm just glad I was at least able to give her a proper heads up and she knew what she needed to do.

This is so awesome. Amazing how powerful a good forum like S2K can be in getting important info to those who need it. Thanks Leanne for looking out for your friend like this. Well Done. And thanks for sharing the information on the situation on the ground here.

[Alyono]

may not have peaked, since the eye is not visible on vis and IR

Santa Maria is now reporting sustained TS winds, with gusts to 47 mph, along with very heavy rainfall

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a rough day on the beach, those people have no business being out there but it's probably quite the spectacle.

[HURAKAN]

a hurricane to remember!

[leanne_uk]

Is that the eye starting to become apparent the west of Sol?

[otowntiger]

Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.

[Alyono]

Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.

That's the Canary Islands.

That said, flooding and mudslides are expected as there are high mountains on Cape Verde

[leanne_uk]

I'm pretty sure it's La Palma in the canaries that has been earmarked for causing a mega tsunami if there is a landslide into the Atlantic.... Could be wrong

Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a rough day on the beach, those people have no business being out there but it's probably quite the spectacle.

They probably don't have much experience with hurricane preparation, but I agree they shouldn't be on the beach!

[Tireman4]

Looks like a rough day on the beach, those people have no business being out there but it's probably quite the spectacle.

They probably don't have much experience with hurricane preparation, but I agree they shouldn't be on the beach!

Oh...that is not good. Not good at all..

[HURAKAN]

close up

[otowntiger]

Any concern of Landslides there in the Cape Verdes? I heard that there is a large piece of land on somewhere there on the side of mountain that has the potential to slide into the sea and cause a massive tsunami affecting land all through the Atlantic including the Eastern Seaboard. I'm not trying to be alarmist but just trying to understand what kind of a realistic threat that could be with all this unprecedented weather for not only the residents and visitor there but possibly elsewhere.

That's the Canary Islands.

ok, thanks. I knew I hadn't dreamed that, but I was wrong on my geography. But it does sound like mudslides in general could be a huge local concern given the copious rainfall they are receiving and especially since this is so unusual for that area.

That said, flooding and mudslides are expected as there are high mountains on Cape Verde

[galaxy401]

HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

Visible satellite pictures and earlier microwave data indicate
that Fred has a well-defined inner core. The outer banding that
was noted yesterday is no longer evident, and the hurricane is quite
compact. A well-defined eye was evident in both a 0904 UTC
SSMIS and 1121 UTC AMSU microwave overpasses. The initial intensity
is raised to 75 kt, which is between the latest objective and
subjective satellite estimates from UW/CIMSS and TAFB, respectively.
Satellite data suggest that the eye of Fred passed just southwest of
Boa Vista Island in the Cape Verde Islands, however the northeastern
eyewall likely moved over a portion of that island just before 1200
UTC this morning.

The sea surface temperatures along the path of Fred are beginning
to decrease, however, the vertical shear is expected to remain quite
low for another 12 hours or so. Little change in strength is
expected today. By Tuesday, Fred will be over SSTS of around 26C
and southwesterly shear is forecast to increase. This should cause
gradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more
stable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours.
The tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression
in about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

Fred continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. The hurricane
should maintain a northwestward heading during the next 12 to 24
hours. During this time, the center of Fred is expected to pass over
or very close to the northwestern Cape Verde Islands of Sao Nicolou,
Santa Luzuia, Sao Vicente, and Sao Antao. On Tuesday, a west-
northwestward turn is predicted as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. Fred should then maintain a
west-northwestward heading during the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC track remains on the south side of the guidance
envelope, in best agreement with a consensus of the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which
begins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape
Verde Islands since 1892. We caution, however, that the database is
less reliable prior to the satellite era (mid 1960s onward).

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.4N 23.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.3N 25.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 20.3N 30.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 21.4N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 22.5N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 24.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Hylian Auree]

Live blog from Cape Verde, albeit in Portuguese

In a nutshell: Boa Vista is bearing the brunt, with reports of downed trees and ripped-off roofs. Two residents were taken to the hospital after the wall of their house collapsed, but fortunately they are doing fine. A large part of the island is currently without power and cellphone service. Other islands, such as Santiago and Sal, are experiencing squally conditions and some flooding, but no reports of significant damage (yet).

[leanne_uk]

I've just spoken with my friend (She is in Santa Maria, Sol) to get an update.... The hotel is flooded on the ground floor so the few people who were trying to stay downstairs thru Fred have all now moved upto the 2nd floor. They have had word from some of the locals that there is flooding and damage to the waterfront but that was to be expected under the circumstances.
There were People down at the beach a couple of hours ago to watch what was happening or who knows what.... crazy if you ask me.

Power did go out for around 40 mins but they have it back again.... for how long who knows.

[Alyono]

the brunt may miss the most populated islands to the NW. Instead, this is hitting the less populated islands. It also is very small, so unless there is a direct hit, there are going to be minor wind impacts

[Sanibel]

Looks like Santa Maria took a hard-side hit.



Next stop, Santa Antao. Ponta Do Sol.