2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

FWIW, The 18Z NAVGEM is showing a BOC / W Gulf system in the long-range

[gatorcane]

The global models from today are looking very bullish on another wave that is currently inside Africa. In fact this is the best agreement I have seen from the globals on any African wave so far this year. The ECMWF/GFS/GEM models are all showing development of this wave. I circled it below. It has noticeable spin with it already:

[HurricaneFan]

The global models from today are looking very bullish on another wave that is currently inside Africa. In fact this is the best agreement I have seen from the globals on any African wave so far this year. The ECMWF/GFS/GEM models are all showing development of this wave. I circled it below. It has noticeable spin with it already:

Any consensus with the models in terms of the track?It seems like the Wave in front of it will not recurve according to some models?
Is this expected to follow the same path as the Wave in front of it?

[Rgv20]

This is the 12zCMC on Day 10...1001mb Low in the BOC.

[blp]

The global models from today are looking very bullish on another wave that is currently inside Africa. In fact this is the best agreement I have seen from the globals on any African wave so far this year. The ECMWF/GFS/GEM models are all showing development of this wave. I circled it below. It has noticeable spin with it already:

[]http://i.imgur.com/HIhGWca.gif[/img]

Any consensus with the models in terms of the track?It seems like the Wave in front of it will not recurve according to some models?
Is this expected to follow the same path as the Wave in front of it?

Good catch Gator. I was looking at that today. Good agreement. Even the CMC which has been tame this year is gung ho and has the strongest run.

[LarryWx]

Barring something unexpected forming from the remnants of Erika just offshore the SE US by early next week, it is looking pretty quiet near the CONUS over the next 10+ days. However, once we get to near midmonth that's about the time analogs suggest starting to look for a possible threat or two to the Gulf, especially NE Gulf and especially late Sep-early Oct. It is highly doubtful that the CONUS will be threatened by any E MDR formation the rest of the season. Any gulf threat would very likely be from a genesis anywhere from just east of the Caribbean back to the Gulf, itself.

[Rgv20]

0zCMC still showing a GOM storm mid to late next week..

[NDG]

Barring something unexpected forming from the remnants of Erika just offshore the SE US by early next week, it is looking pretty quiet near the CONUS over the next 10+ days. However, once we get to near midmonth that's about the time analogs suggest starting to look for a possible threat or two to the Gulf, especially NE Gulf and especially late Sep-early Oct. It is highly doubtful that the CONUS will be threatened by any E MDR formation the rest of the season. Any gulf threat would very likely be from a genesis anywhere from just east of the Caribbean back to the Gulf, itself.

I doubt Erika's remnants will be able to do much back on the Atlantic side, with 20-30 knot winds in the upper levels forecasted to prevail over that area.

[LarryWx]

Barring something unexpected forming from the remnants of Erika just offshore the SE US by early next week, it is looking pretty quiet near the CONUS over the next 10+ days. However, once we get to near midmonth that's about the time analogs suggest starting to look for a possible threat or two to the Gulf, especially NE Gulf and especially late Sep-early Oct. It is highly doubtful that the CONUS will be threatened by any E MDR formation the rest of the season. Any gulf threat would very likely be from a genesis anywhere from just east of the Caribbean back to the Gulf, itself.

I doubt Erika's remnants will be able to do much back on the Atlantic side, with 20-30 knot winds in the upper levels forecasted to prevail over that area.

Agreed. That's why I said "barring something unexpected". I also mentioned in another post that the shear is projected to be too high to allow for more than a low chance for development off of the SE coast. Earlier GFS runs had had less shear thus allowing for a little bit higher chance. It might already be time to be thinking that the next nontrivial CONUS hit chance won't be til at least the 2nd half of Sep. from geneses in the western half of the Atlantic basin as seasonal pattern changes set in and quite possibly make that area more conducive.

[BigB0882]

Are any models showing something in the Gulf besides the Navgem or CMC? If not then I wont bother to keep checking back, haha.

[stormlover2013]

well gfs and euro have been hinting it but nothing consistent

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC continues to go with development in the Gulf in the long-range.

[Steve H.]

Looks to be some tumbleweed in the central Atlantic amplifying out of the ITCZ this morning. Any models showing support for development in this area?

[Alyono]

Canadian with a New Orleans hurricane

[gatorcane]

Canadian with a New Orleans hurricane

Graphic, good thing it is the CMC:

[Stormcenter]

It seems as though every hurricane season a model has a direct hit on New Orleans.

[stormlover2013]

well yesterday it was victoria texas

[Rgv20]

12zGFS nor non of its ensemble members develop anything in the BOC thru 10 days. CMC with the worst case scenario!

[emeraldislenc]

Everything looks quite for now. The next week looks very inactive. What are your thoughts?

[gatorcane]

Everything looks quite for now. The next week looks very inactive. What are your thoughts?

The Eastern Atlantic is where to watch for development within the next week (or sooner)