ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion
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The 18Z GFS is another run that brings the remnants of Erika slowly offshore the SE US, where it then gets stuck below a large upper high til about a week from now. Though SST's are largely in the mid-80's there, shear levels look like they'd be only marginally conducive for tropical development early next week. So, even if the 18Z GFS is correct, I'd consider tropical development only a low probability at this point even though it appears we may be inside the MJO circle then, which has tended to be a pretty favorable phase in Sep during stronger Nino's. It will be interesting to see if this run even has the right general idea as it could easily be way off base.
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- northjaxpro
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
The GFS & Euro forecast westerly 20-30 knot UL winds over the vorticity as it moves back over the Atlantic.
If it did not developed over the last couple days in the GOM is not going to develope over the next days with that forecasted UL environment.
We need to admit that El Niño is kicking butt in our side of the Atlantic
If it did not developed over the last couple days in the GOM is not going to develope over the next days with that forecasted UL environment.
We need to admit that El Niño is kicking butt in our side of the Atlantic

Last edited by NDG on Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- northjaxpro
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Ericka's remnant circulation is moving northeast now entering Southeast GA. Latest GEM has the vorticity moving off the coast of GA/SC by late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Then, it meanders just off the coast. Shear forecast signal likely no development, but it still merits watching nonetheless. The vorticity is very close in proximity for one main reason and also never rule out any thing with these systems. Never!
When I finally see that this vorticity has dissipated completely, then it will.be DONE.
When I finally see that this vorticity has dissipated completely, then it will.be DONE.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion
There's no evidence of any residual LLC in surface obs across northern FL or GA. Pressures there are rather high - 1018-1019mb. Redevelopment chances still zero.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion
On visible satellite I see now a very well fine surface circulation near Valdosta Georgia but the shear is already blowing the convection away from it.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion
I see that too. But it's a goner because it's headed over land. 2015 is not developing these systems.
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The 12Z GFS shows any remnant of Erika off of the SE coast this weekend into early next week still having pretty unfavorable upper air winds/shear offshore despite persistent areas of convection and weak sfc low pressure. This run actually looks like it has a bit of an upper low at 500 mb nearby, which in itself would not be conducive to tropical development. It isn't often that an upper low transitions to a tropical cyclone though it is, to be fair, far from impossible. Also, to be fair, there are some areas on the northern end of this showing under 10 knots shear on this run. So, shear is progged to be a little lower in some areas off of the SE than prior runs. I'm in the "see what happens because it will be interesting being that SST's are in the mid-80's and the mess looks to persist in the same area for four days (Fri-Tue) but expect no TC to form in that region" camp.
*Edited
*Edited
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 3m3 minutes ago State College, PA
Erika came all that way from Africa, only to wind up as swirl over an onion patch south of Vidalia GA
Erika came all that way from Africa, only to wind up as swirl over an onion patch south of Vidalia GA
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Currently, vis satellites clearly show a low level swirl near Valdosta, Ga, moving very slowly eastward:
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
Lowest pressure is 30.01"/1016 mb at Valdosta, GA.
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
Lowest pressure is 30.01"/1016 mb at Valdosta, GA.
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^Bob, that sounds scarey!
Erika's remnant LLC has just passed Waycross, Ga, and is moving slowly eastward. It should pass offshore near Brunswick in a few hours and then we can start watching a little more closely again though I still doubt it will redevelop into a TC due to projected shear. If the models are too high on the projected shear, then that could mean a different story. Actually, one can see that there is decent shear now judging by the thunderstorms being blown offshore with hardly any precip at the center.
Regardless of the shear, I expect interest in Erika's remnants to ramp back up once it gets offshore and assuming it lingers near the SE coast intact, especially with this being about the only nearby to the CONUS feature. This interest may continue for the next 5-6 days as it lingers.
Erika's remnant LLC has just passed Waycross, Ga, and is moving slowly eastward. It should pass offshore near Brunswick in a few hours and then we can start watching a little more closely again though I still doubt it will redevelop into a TC due to projected shear. If the models are too high on the projected shear, then that could mean a different story. Actually, one can see that there is decent shear now judging by the thunderstorms being blown offshore with hardly any precip at the center.
Regardless of the shear, I expect interest in Erika's remnants to ramp back up once it gets offshore and assuming it lingers near the SE coast intact, especially with this being about the only nearby to the CONUS feature. This interest may continue for the next 5-6 days as it lingers.
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^An additional note on the LLC: the 11 PM SLP at Brunswick was at 30.00" while it was at 29.92" at Waycross, only 60 miles to the west. That's nearly a 3 mb difference and does actually suggest there is a tighter LLC than what the GFS and especially what the Euro is showing.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes
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Interestingly, the center of the low seems like it might actually be a bit north of Brunswick/SSI. It looks like it may be between SAV and SSI and only crawling eastward. So, it still appears to not have gotten offshore just yet. Let's see what it does once it touches the mid-80's SST's. Had the shear not been this strong, I would have been looking for tropical development of this low level center. However, the shear will likely prevent that as has been opined. We'll see. Little things like this nearby are certainly interesting to track.
**Edited
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http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
Anyone else see what I'm seeing?
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