ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Surface winds 5-10 kts in the area. Pressure 1014mb.

Fair wx seabreezes can be stronger than that

[Sanibel]

Should burst convection over the Gulf Stream.

[LarryWx]

Should burst convection over the Gulf Stream.

Agreed. That's what the Euro seems to be showing for tonight. I wonder if it is an actual DMAX working together with the Gulf Stream. Regardless, the shear is still expected by the Euro to keep it in check.

[wxman57]

Here's a zoomed-in visible with surface obs. Big white dashed circle is the very weak, broad apparent circulation. I say apparent as the surface obs don't indicate much of a circulation:

[LarryWx]

^Wxman57,
I'm confident that there is a LLC as I've been following this very closely. All winds have been light but in circular form. Perhaps it is a little stronger just above the surface?

I do see some high clouds coming in from the west starting to obscure the western side now.

Anyway, consistent with what Sanibel and the 12Z Euro said, I'm expecting a new burst of convection tonight.

[emeraldislenc]

It has been an amazing journey it is like the gift that keeps on giving!

[NDG]

Give it up guys, the strong El Nino has shut down the season on our side of the Atlantic Basin already.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherlover12]

Give it up guys, the strong El Nino has shut down the season on our side of the Atlantic Basin already.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No it has not, I believe its to early to say things like that. Until November 30.. we need to watch because we can have homegrown systems.

[wxman57]

Give it up guys, the strong El Nino has shut down the season on our side of the Atlantic Basin already.

I've already given up on Erika days ago.

We were discussing the conditions across the tropics in the office earlier this week. Except for a brief period in mid June when TS Bill formed, the Gulf of Mexico has been an extremely hostile place for TC development. The Caribbean, too. With the strengthening El Nino, I'm beginning to think that the Gulf will remain closed for business for at least the next 2-3 weeks. That should take us to near the end of October, when wind shear typically increases across the Gulf as the passage of regular cold fronts begins. Same for the East U.S. Coast. I would not be surprised if the rest of the season consisted of 1-2 weak storms out in the open Atlantic (nothing in the Gulf or Caribbean). Strong El Nino seasons typically feature an early shut-down of activity.

It's been amazing how quiet the western Caribbean has been this summer. I recall only a single disturbance in the west Caribbean (became Bill). I expected the Caribbean to be quite a hostile environment this summer, but it's more hostile than I expected.

Of course, the above doesn't mean that everyone can stop watching the tropics because it's guaranteed that there will be no more threats this season. We haven't even reached the climatological peak of the season yet (Sept. 10). My opinion, though, is that the Gulf will remain "closed for business" for the rest of this season.

[LarryWx]

Give it up guys, the strong El Nino has shut down the season on our side of the Atlantic Basin already.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I continue to doubt that this will ever become a TC again. However, that doesn't take away my interest as "Eveready Bunny" systems like these that never seem to quit, especially those that have taken a long, tough journey to nearby the SE US, interest me a good bit. Systems don't have to be strong to interest me. This never say die LLC is quite the survivor!

[LarryWx]

Give it up guys, the strong El Nino has shut down the season on our side of the Atlantic Basin already.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No it has not, I believe its to early to say things like that. Until November 30.. we need to watch because we can have homegrown systems.

Not only do I agree, but second year strong El Niño analogs, as I've been saying for the better part of a month, actually suggest the biggest threat of the entire season to the CONUS may very well be within the late Sep/early Oct period with the potential threat more likely centered on the NE Gulf than anywhere else. I don't look at these analogs as anything close to crystal balls but I do look at them as giving hints. The hint is telling me that it is far too early to call it a season for the CONUS as far as potential strong impacts and to remain vigilant despite the lack of impact on the CONUS to this point.
I do recall some at this BB saying we'd likely have no storms in August and we ended up with three in the 2nd half. That right there should be enough evidence to suggest not getting too complacent.

Anyway, back to watching Erika's remnants! I'll be looking to see if there will be convection redevelopment tonight.

[northjaxpro]

The story of the season in our region of the basin! Screaming shear! The reality of a strong El Nino for sure. Really the story of everywhere in the basin west of 50 degrees Longitude out in the MDR and points westward. Westerly shear up to 30 kts in the above shear analysis is why the remnant circulation of Erika was not able to regenerate. Just too strong! Last night and early this morning, there was an rather decent convective burst near and just off the GA coast as the remnant circulation was moving torad the GA coast. But they were blown away off to the east due to that strong shear. Even if convection attempted to fire up later tonight Larry, the shear would simply blow that convection well removed from that remnant circulation.

Like you Larry, I have a firm belief that you stick with vorticity and watch it carefully just to see in this particular case if it could possibly get to find a lull in the shear and attempt to spin-up. However, looking at the shear forecasts, there is no let-up in the foreseeable future and I think this long, long saga of the life of Erika is finally about to come to an end. It has been fascinating watching this system. She tried her hardest to defy the hostile conditions her entire journey from Africa all the way to being a naked vort now 100 or so miles east of the Northeast Florida coast.

So, I am considering this write-up my epithat to Erika... However, Erika , you were a deadly storm nonetheless, so glad you are finally kaput!!

Now, if by some miracle from the weather Gods that this comes back to life, serve me up plenty of crow, barbeque style LOL.....

[LarryWx]

Now that's a very nice tribute to a fighter!

I also expect any new convection to blow off to the east, but I still think it will be interesting to see it come and go.

I hope this doesn't mean you won't keep posting your thoughts in this thread, especially if the LLC continues to survive. Model guidance strongly favors it will survive for at least 3-4 more days.

[northjaxpro]

Well, Larry, even though I am on record that it is done, you know and most everyone who knows me on this forum that I will sneak a peek at this vort over the next day or two just in case it miraculously resurrects itself. LOL.. But, I learned many years ago, NEVER say NEVER concerning the tropics and weather in general Larry. That is a bonafide fact!!

[NDG]

Give it up guys, the strong El Nino has shut down the season on our side of the Atlantic Basin already.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No it has not, I believe its to early to say things like that. Until November 30.. we need to watch because we can have homegrown systems.

Not only do I agree, but second year strong El Niño analogs, as I've been saying for the better part of a month, actually suggest the biggest threat of the entire season to the CONUS may very well be within the late Sep/early Oct period with the potential threat more likely centered on the NE Gulf than anywhere else. I don't look at these analogs as anything close to crystal balls but I do look at them as giving hints. The hint is telling me that it is far too early to call it a season for the CONUS as far as potential strong impacts and to remain vigilant despite the lack of impact on the CONUS to this point.
I do recall some at this BB saying we'd likely have no storms in August and we ended up with three in the 2nd half. That right there should be enough evidence to suggest not getting too complacent.

Anyway, back to watching Erika's remnants! I'll be looking to see if there will be convection redevelopment tonight.

What analog years are you using?

[LarryWx]

^I know they are seemingly "long ago" and the # of years is small (that's why I consider them as just hints as to what may happen), but check out 2nd year quite strong El Niño years like 1896, 1888, and 1877. These were pretty much the strongest 2nd year El Nino's since the late 1800's ans similar to this year's very strong 2nd year El Nino. All three of these had a NW FL cat 2-3 hit within late Sep-early Oct. In all three cases, these were storms that were quite notable for the CONUS (95 knots+) and two of the three years were the strongest CONUS hits of the season. Two developed near the Lesser Antilles and became Caribbean Cruisers. The other formed in the western Gulf.

[NDG]

Thanks, but I would have to question the conditions those years compared to this years, at least 1896 & 1877 are very questionable to think that conditions in the Caribbean and GOM were as bad as this year so far when a few of those storms formed or traveled across the Caribbean as hurricanes before affecting the US. Conditions had to have been better than this year.

[LarryWx]

That's quite a valid point to keep in mind. Conditions in the Caribbean and/or Gulf would seemingly need to improve significantly over the next few weeks just for these kind of hurricanes to even have a chance to exist in either or both of those regions. Is that a reasonable possibility or is it a done deal? Is there any way to know?

[NDG]

:uarrow: That's quite a valid point to keep in mind. Conditions in the Caribbean and/or Gulf would seemingly need to improve significantly over the next few weeks just for these kind of hurricanes to even have a chance to exist in either or both of those regions. Is that a reasonable possibility or is it a done deal? Is there any way to know?

Who knows if conditions will improve, but I guess we could go by the GFS & Euro's long range forecast for signals if the conditions will improve at least temporarily, they did a fairly good job in early to mid August forecasting that conditions were going to improve in the eastern Atlantic.

[OuterBanker]

Whoever thought that the biggest threat for an atlantic land falling hurricane would be the Cape Verde islands.