ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here we go with the Eastern Atlantic Wave.

91L INVEST 150903 1800 10.6N 15.3W ATL 15 1010

Thread that was the topic for this wave at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117518

[AutoPenalti]

Something to monitor, doesn't seem fishy.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
the potential for some gradual development as it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[abajan]

Here we go with the Eastern Atlantic Wave.

91L INVEST 150903 1800 10.6N 15.3W ATL 15 1010

Hey cycloneye, you forgot to include the link to the closed Talking Tropics thread for this system. For the benefit of those who want to know the history of 91L, here it is.

[cycloneye]

Here we go with the Eastern Atlantic Wave.

91L INVEST 150903 1800 10.6N 15.3W ATL 15 1010

Hey cycloneye, you forgot to include the link to the closed Talking Tropics thread for this system. For the benefit of those who want to know the history of 91L, here it is.

Forgot that but is now at first post.Thank you for the reminder.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015



A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN AFRICA WIT AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N14W TO 08N14W...MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 10W-18W AND IS LARGELY LOW-
AMPLITUDE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURROUNDS THIS WAVE AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

[gatorcane]

Saved image - pretty good area of convection to the north of the low center. Let's see if this can hold together over the next 24-48 hours:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should have little issue becoming a named storm within a low wind shear, adequately moist environment. In addition, a strong CCKW is currently pushing eastward across the Atlantic; this should give 91L a boost over the coming days.

[Sanibel]

It really reconvected nicely.

[hurricanehunter69]

yep, we've got a vigorous and good looking wave with deep convection. low shear, decent thermodynamics and water temps. In short it's located in a proven breeding ground. So, I'm at a loss and trying to figure out why the models ( GFS in particular ) aren't more bullish on this? While I wouldn't bet on explosive development...I also would not be surprised. I'd lay odds on hurricane and would bet heavy on at least tropical storm.

[AutoPenalti]

yep, we've got a vigorous and good looking wave with deep convection. low shear, decent thermodynamics and water temps. In short it's located in a proven breeding ground. So, I'm at a loss and trying to figure out why the models ( GFS in particular ) aren't more bullish on this? While I wouldn't bet on explosive development...I also would not be surprised. I'd lay odds on hurricane and would bet heavy on at least tropical storm.

Ahead of it is a lot of dry air it seems, what is the ridge like for the next couple of days?

[emeraldislenc]

It really looks good up to 60 per cent

[emeraldislenc]

It looks healthy it was just bumped up to 60 percent.

[Riptide]

No joke, this is a sick (epic) African wave.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Extratropical94]

It looks healthy it was just bumped up to 60 percent.

Also short-term code orange.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system
shows signs of organization and has the potential for some
development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[emeraldislenc]

Best looking wave I have seen in a whole looks great!

[Hammy]

I would say based on cloud movement and backed up by ASCAT, the center appears to be near 11N/31W (roughly on the western edge of the convection) and it's still embedded in the ITCZ, quite elongated to the west.

None of the models aside from the GFS develops this and given the fact that it is likely less organized at the surface than satellite indicates, I think this is going to have very similar problems to Erika as far as organizing, and would not be surprised if it doesn't develop at all.

[abajan]

I ... would not be surprised if it doesn't develop at all.

I would be surprised though. Very surprised.

[beoumont]

KAHUNA!!

1st light and jsl:

[hiflyer]

Very similar to Fred in that when it came off the coast it began to 'hit the ground running'. If this Invest has any of Fred's tenacity then this could become interesting 'down the road' for a bit.