EPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
Deep convection associated with the depression has increased in
coverage overnight, but the overall organization of the cyclone has
not changed very much. The center appears to be located near the
eastern edge of the deep convection due to moderate northeasterly
shear. An ASCAT overpass at 0416 UTC was very helpful in locating
the center and revealed wind speeds of around 30 kt, which is used
as the initial intensity for this advisory. The shear is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours, which should allow for steady
strengthening, and the depression is likely to become a tropical
storm very soon. The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable
environment through late Tuesday, and the NHC forecast calls for
the system to become a hurricane within the next couple of days.
This is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72 hours,
decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should
cause weakening by days 4 and 5.
The depression is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone
is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next 3 to 4
days while it remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level
ridge over Mexico. The models are in relatively good agreement on
this scenario, but have trended a little northward after 72 hours
and indicate a faster forward motion through much of the forecast
period. As a result, the new NHC forecast is faster than the
previous advisory, and has also been nudged northward after 48
hours. The new forecast lies along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
Deep convection associated with the depression has increased in
coverage overnight, but the overall organization of the cyclone has
not changed very much. The center appears to be located near the
eastern edge of the deep convection due to moderate northeasterly
shear. An ASCAT overpass at 0416 UTC was very helpful in locating
the center and revealed wind speeds of around 30 kt, which is used
as the initial intensity for this advisory. The shear is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours, which should allow for steady
strengthening, and the depression is likely to become a tropical
storm very soon. The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable
environment through late Tuesday, and the NHC forecast calls for
the system to become a hurricane within the next couple of days.
This is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72 hours,
decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should
cause weakening by days 4 and 5.
The depression is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone
is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next 3 to 4
days while it remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level
ridge over Mexico. The models are in relatively good agreement on
this scenario, but have trended a little northward after 72 hours
and indicate a faster forward motion through much of the forecast
period. As a result, the new NHC forecast is faster than the
previous advisory, and has also been nudged northward after 48
hours. The new forecast lies along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the
depression has been increasing during the last several hours and
banding features are becoming better established on the west side
of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications have increased to
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB. The latest ADT value
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the
system Tropical Storm Linda.
Recent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located
on the northeast side of the main area of convection due to
northeasterly shear. This shear, however, is not expected to be
strong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded
in a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next
couple of days. After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be
drier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along
the forecast track. These conditions should halt intensification
and result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the
intensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and
LGEM models.
Linda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level
high pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern
United States. The ridge is expected to more or less remain in
place during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on
the same general course. After that time, a slowdown is predicted
as the ridge weakens some. The NHC track forecast has again been
shifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the
depression has been increasing during the last several hours and
banding features are becoming better established on the west side
of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications have increased to
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB. The latest ADT value
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the
system Tropical Storm Linda.
Recent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located
on the northeast side of the main area of convection due to
northeasterly shear. This shear, however, is not expected to be
strong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded
in a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next
couple of days. After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be
drier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along
the forecast track. These conditions should halt intensification
and result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the
intensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and
LGEM models.
Linda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level
high pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern
United States. The ridge is expected to more or less remain in
place during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on
the same general course. After that time, a slowdown is predicted
as the ridge weakens some. The NHC track forecast has again been
shifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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- 1900hurricane
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Latest vis looks good. It's been five hours since the last microwave pass, and it looks like it has made some good progress building a core in that time.

Also, the Hadley Cell must be very deep at the moment for Linda (and Kevin a few days ago) to be generating convection as deep as it has. CDO temps were between -80*C and -90*C before sunrise, with overshoots even colder (pictured below).

Also, the Hadley Cell must be very deep at the moment for Linda (and Kevin a few days ago) to be generating convection as deep as it has. CDO temps were between -80*C and -90*C before sunrise, with overshoots even colder (pictured below).
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- Yellow Evan
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It looks much better now than it did last night. May be nearing 45 knots now. LEt's see if this can build an inner core in the near term. If it can, this will have a good chance at becoming a Category 4.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152015 09/06/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 55 61 72 78 78 73 66 59 55 50
V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 55 61 72 78 78 73 66 59 55 50
V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 51 56 63 73 79 79 72 63 54 48 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 7 6 6 9 12 11 17 8 9 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -5 -1 -3 -4 -4 -8 -7 -3 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 25 21 32 47 66 98 110 133 117 127 129 116 187
SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.6 25.8 25.3 24.9 25.0
POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 159 155 148 141 135 128 119 115 112 113
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 83 82 79 75 69 64 63 58 50 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 21 24 26 27 26 26 24 25 23
850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 30 28 20 35 37 57 60 68 33 32 19
200 MB DIV 89 98 112 99 73 105 90 51 19 45 22 0 -3
700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -7 -6 -1 0 1 0 0 0 4 -2
LAND (KM) 727 712 715 730 692 585 581 562 566 620 680 766 901
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.1 16.9 18.7 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.9
LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.1 111.0 111.8 113.4 114.6 115.8 116.7 117.8 119.0 120.8 122.9
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 28 34 11 4 2 2 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 12. 14. 12. 12. 10. 11. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 21. 32. 38. 38. 33. 26. 19. 15. 10.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.


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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.
Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.
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- Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:24:15 N Lon : 109:17:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.3mb/ 53.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 4.0
Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.7 degrees
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:24:15 N Lon : 109:17:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.3mb/ 53.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 4.0
Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.7 degrees
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- Yellow Evan
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EP, 15, 201509061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1430N, 10930W, , 2, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, TS, VIM, 3, 3030 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO DT
EP, 15, 201509061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1430N, 10940W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JS, V, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,
EP, 15, 201509061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1430N, 10940W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JS, V, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
Yellow Evan wrote:mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.
Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.
I think it has a decent chance at major hurricane status if it can get going soon.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.
Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.
I think it has a decent chance at major hurricane status if it can get going soon.
Looks like if it intensifies into a major AND takes the northeastern most track in "the cone", there is a decent shot of us getting some moisture out of this one

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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.
Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.
I think it has a decent chance at major hurricane status if it can get going soon.
Absolutely. And so far it's been doing good as shear has dropped off quite a bit.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
Linda is strengthening. Satellite images indicate that banding
features have become better defined during the last several hours,
and deep convection has been persisting near the center. The
circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending
several hundred miles across. The Dvorak classifications at 1800
UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and
ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt. Based on these
estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.
Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as
the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone
is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48
hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions
should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the
previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.
Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the
southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is
expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,
which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or
slightly faster forward speed. After that time, a slowdown is
predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward. The NHC
track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the
previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
Linda is strengthening. Satellite images indicate that banding
features have become better defined during the last several hours,
and deep convection has been persisting near the center. The
circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending
several hundred miles across. The Dvorak classifications at 1800
UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and
ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt. Based on these
estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.
Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as
the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone
is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48
hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions
should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the
previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.
Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the
southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is
expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,
which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or
slightly faster forward speed. After that time, a slowdown is
predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward. The NHC
track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the
previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
Linda is strengthening. Satellite images indicate that banding
features have become better defined during the last several hours,
and deep convection has been persisting near the center. The
circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending
several hundred miles across. The Dvorak classifications at 1800
UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and
ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt. Based on these
estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.
Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as
the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone
is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48
hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions
should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the
previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.
Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the
southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is
expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,
which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or
slightly faster forward speed. After that time, a slowdown is
predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward. The NHC
track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the
previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Looks better and better for us to get a "piece" of it

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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm
SHIPS/LGEM runs:
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LINDA EP152015 09/06/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 65 71 77 84 87 82 73 63 56 47 41
V (KT) LAND 50 57 65 71 77 84 87 82 73 63 56 47 41
V (KT) LGE mod 50 60 69 79 87 94 92 80 69 57 48 41 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 7 7 7 11 9 15 12 8 11 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -1 0 -4 -2 -4 -6 -7 -4 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 15 30 46 64 85 144 113 134 118 143 155 174 204
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.0 25.1 24.6 24.5 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 155 152 144 138 131 122 113 108 106 107
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 2
700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 84 82 76 74 67 64 63 57 51 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 21 22 25 26 26 24 23 21 20 19
850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 29 24 29 49 61 62 54 32 23 16 22
200 MB DIV 105 117 113 85 102 118 83 39 22 15 2 9 4
700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -5 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 2 4 4
LAND (KM) 726 719 731 688 632 591 568 556 589 627 676 744 850
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.8 19.4 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.5 24.9
LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.2 111.0 111.9 112.7 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.4 118.7 120.2 121.5 122.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 8 7 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 20 22 29 33 18 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 27. 34. 37. 32. 23. 13. 6. -3. -9.
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 15:10:30 N Lon : 110:01:34 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 987.4mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 4.3
Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATI
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 15:10:30 N Lon : 110:01:34 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 987.4mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 4.3
Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATI
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