Emmett_Brown wrote:Another storm in an el nino year, destined to be kept in check by shear if current NHC forecasts are correct. If this was a neutral or nina year, this would have probably been something to watch out for. Always prepare though, you never know. My guess is this will be an open wave by the time it makes it to the Caribbean.
I have to respectfully disagree Emmett. I'm sure you've heard the football expression "a game of inches". Well, thus far a couple of hurricanes have approached the Caribbean. One resulted in at least 20 deaths (in Dominica). Could have easily been more, or could have very easily caused a broader impact through other neighboring islands. What about Hurricane Danny? What if the upper level wind shear that decoupled Danny were perhaps a couple hundred miles further west and a Cat. 3 just happened to plow into Puerto Rico. Sure, there might had been little left of Danny to eventually impact the Conus but at least for the Eastern Caribbean, i think everyone (Ninel included) would have to admit that Grace and other potential storms this year, are absolutely "something to watch for". As was pointed out by another poster earlier today "all storms eventually die". What's relevant here is beyond whether a hurricane might make it all the way to impact some point of our own particular interest.
As a side-note to the above, Larry had just posted "So, the record high during the satellite era's 6 developing strong+ El Nino seasons was only 2 til this season's 4! So, 2015 is clearly on its own with regard to storms that formed E of 50W. Furthermore, there's no telling that we're done at 4 being that it is only 9/6."
.gif){kind=small}
