ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

Hammy · #181 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:47 am

Once again the shear forecasts are way off, Grace is already running into westerly shear at the moment, which wasn't forecast to begin for another 36 hours. CIMSS shows 15-20kts at the moment and it's evident with high cloud movement as well.

Gustywind · #182 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:51 am

07/0545 UTC 13.4N 33.2W T3.0/3.0 GRACE

Gustywind · #183 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:52 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 070838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015

...GRACE CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 33.9W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

LarryWx · #184 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:18 am

Yes, indeed, shear does look as if it may be higher than what at least recent GFS runs have been showing for the current time. The GFS, including the 6Z, has been showing under 10 knots for much of the area from Grace westward to the Lesser Antilles for the current time.

#185 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:37 am

not sure if a closed circulation still exists based upon early visible imagery

#186 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:06 am

There is still a vigorous 850MB vorticity:

#187 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:26 am

I wouldn't identify Grace as a TS much less a 45kt TS base on its appearance in visible satellite imagery. There was an ASCAT image at 6:45pm CDT yesterday that caught the right half of Grace. There were a number of 25-30kt wind barbs and an isolated 40kt barb. Nothing to base a current 45kt intensity on.

#188 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:41 am

Yeah, Grace looks even worse now than when I went to bed early this morning. Apparently, some shear and dry air have taken its toll on her right now. Prospects are dimming quicker than expected for this cyclone. I thought it may hold together up to at least 50 Longitude, but she is waning fast. Unless she can pull a Danny-type comeback,
the time to call upon you know who may be coming much sooner than anticipated.

#189 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:38 am

TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015

Grace's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat this morning, with
the deep convection becoming fragmented and banding features less
evident than they were yesterday. The initial intensity is
adjusted downward to 40 kt in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass, and in line with the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB. An upper-level trough to the northwest
of the tropical cyclone is producing some west-southwesterly
vertical shear on Grace. The SHIPS model indicates that the shear
will increase over the next several days, which should inhibit
strengthening. The official intensity forecast calls for little
change in strength during the next couple of days followed by
gradual weakening. Grace is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by the end of the forecast period. This is similar to the
intensity model consensus, IVCN, but given the current state of the
system, Grace could weaken faster than indicated here.

The storm is moving a little more quickly toward the west this
morning, and the motion estimate is 275/15 kt. For the next several
days, Grace will continue to be steered by the low- to mid-level
flow to the south of the subtropical ridge. The GFS and ECMWF
global models show a rather brisk westward motion, perhaps partially
because the system opens up into a wave in the model predictions.
The official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and
close to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.1N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 15.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.3N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 17.0N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

alienstorm · #190 Postby **alienstorm** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:47 am

Same track as Erika kiss it goodnight

emeraldislenc · #191 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:53 am

Looks very similiar! Will be interesting if they bump it to the north any.

ConvergenceZone · #192 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:02 am

Yep, you can tell a storm is dying and had no chance when there's only 1 page of comments since last night........Audios Grace....Hopefully the convection will die out and not pose much of a flooding threat to the islands.

This year just isn't conducive for development(except for the Danny Fluke). Too much dry air, too much shear, just horrible conditions overall. BUT it has been more active than I thought it would be. El Nino will be gone next year, so we should be back to normal. I wouldn't be surprised though if we see a couple more depressions or storms in 2015 though.

Weatherlover12 · #193 Postby **Weatherlover12** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:07 am

alienstorm wrote:Same track as Erika kiss it goodnight

If you say so

#194 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:13 am

RGB view of Grace

#195 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:49 am

Grace is in very deep trouble because of this:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 9m9 minutes ago
The convectively suppressed state of a strong kelvin wave has now pushed across the MDR. #Grace is in trouble.

#196 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:57 am

Wxman57 is the good doctor preparing to come out to Sick Bay soon?

Hammy · #197 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:16 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Yep, you can tell a storm is dying and had no chance when there's only 1 page of comments since last night

Fred's thread had the same situation when it was strengthening--I don't disagree that this is weakening but the number of posts =/= future intensity prospects.

ConvergenceZone · #198 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:27 pm

Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Yep, you can tell a storm is dying and had no chance when there's only 1 page of comments since last night

Fred's thread had the same situation when it was strengthening--I don't disagree that this is weakening but the number of posts =/= future intensity prospects.

Actually, Fred was different, as we knew it was going out to sea, thus the lack of posting. but Grace is not predicted to recurve out to sea. So the overall current frequency of postings indicates a general consensus on the current mindset of the anticipated fate of Grace

#199 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:29 pm

Saved image, convection has decreased so now we can see the structure better. We see some westerly wind shear impacting Grace as thunderstorms build around the center and get blown off to the east.

emeraldislenc · #200 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:36 pm

It is just a weak storm and the prospects of it getting stronger are not good I just think everyone is realistic!

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