Article: The hype around Models

[blp]

Nice article highlights a real problem that exists when media hypes the models. That graphic by Michael Lowry on Ericka is amazing to see how many models were off.

Post mortem I know I bought in hard on the models instead of realizing that Ericka was a mess structurally ever since it left Africa and that decoupled systems are difficult to forecast.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/09/03/we-need-to-better-communicate-tropical-storm-threats-and-it-starts-at-the-national-hurricane-center/

[galaxy401]

Good read. The models have been bad so far this season. So far they struggled with Danny and Erika, underestimated Fred, and show no development to the currently developing invest. Still shows we have ways to go in understanding these Tropical Cyclones.

[WPBWeather]

Good read. The models have been bad so far this season. So far they struggled with Danny and Erika, underestimated Fred, and show no development to the currently developing invest. Still shows we have ways to go in understanding these Tropical Cyclones.

From your mouth to many posters ears!

[gatorcane]

I knew an article like this was coming. While certainly eye-opening regarding model forecasts vs actual outcome of Erika, I do not agree with the author that National Hurricane Center is where to start regarding "communicating better."

If you look back at hurricane center forecasts vs actual outcome through the years, the National Hurricane Center has been outstanding and they keep improving their forecasting accuracy as time goes on. Then one system like Erika comes along where the models did collectively fail and look how somebody decides to jump all over the hurricane center.

Do we see any articles of praise for the hurricane center all these years? Nope

Now does the media blow things up? Yes, but this is nothing new. It has been this way forever and I don't think there is anything you can do to change that. That is who the media is, certainly no NHC changes to "communicate better" will change them.

Totally ridiculous article here.

[blp]

Where I see an issue is with the media cherry picking model runs and putting it on the news which can lead people to make assumptions. Oh the majority of the runs are off the coast so we should be Ok for example. It is Ok for people like us on weather boards to show the runs since we all know not to take them verbatum and we understand the good models from the bad but I just think there is no value in news outlets posting model runs. That is not something we saw years ago with the media. The media used to report everything from the Hurricane Center and now I see a little more forecasting versus reporting. Now I don't know how the NHC can control what the media reports that part seems like it would be difficult to do. Just my two cents.

[tolakram]

Totally ridiculous article here.

I will completely disagree, and show a single graphic that should be enough evidence that something needs fixed.

[psyclone]

I think it is absurd that we group a 70mph storm and a 40mph storm in the same class. what other weather phenomenon do we that with? a thunderstorm with 70mph potential gets a strongly worded severe thunderstorm warning. one with 40mph winds may not even get a mention. (I don't care if it's not a gradient wind). let's face it...a sub 55mph ts or depression doesn't represent a wind issue outside of the marine environment but classifying such systems as storms screens in a lot of complacency-breeding junk, Erika only being the latest in a long line. My idea (which I recognize is total fantasy) is not to use a name or designate a ts until sustained winds reach 50 knots (the same threshold used for severe t-storm warnings..the level at which the wind can cause land based problems). storms below this level could have a different designation like deep depression and landfalls could be dealt with by issuing gale warnings (remember the good old days where there were no TS warnings...gale warnings were used). This system would match up well with mid latitude warnings and (hopefully) reduce hype until it is warranted. winds less than 50 knots=gale warnings, 48-64 knots tropical storm warnings (storm warnings for mid latitudes) and 65+ knots hurricane warnings (hurricane force wind warnings for mid latitude, non tropical entities). It may need tinkering but something along that line would provide continuity and perhaps help this issue. believe me this is a problem and the weather people need to wake up and do it soon. I was in a Chipotle in Clearwater a few nights ago and people were laughing about Erika and how the cone swallowed up the whole state and nothing ever happens. They're right (at least until they're not).

[gatorcane]

Totally ridiculous article here.

I will completely disagree, and show a single graphic that should be enough evidence that something needs fixed.


http://imageshack.com/a/img538/495/OKVap7.gif

Well that map was a bit ridiculous! That is still a head scratcher

But the author of the article is suggesting more fundamental changes to how the NHC communicates their forecast indicating that some of the most important info is buried in the discussion for example.

[RL3AO]

NHC should have done a full advisory instead of an intermediate advisory there. That would have allowed them to update the forecast track after such a clear change in center position.

[Alyono]

the main issue is the "cone of uncertainty" is NOT a cone of uncertainty. It is nothing more than a historical error cone. It provides no description whatsoever in terms of the forecast uncertainty. Even many meteorologists make that mistake

[floridasun78]

i think media should have wait to start hype and hourly report and sending report to supermarket and hardware store my wife saY PUBLIX WAS ALREADY OUT WATER this could hurt when real storm coming toward florida gover should wait to issue state of emergency that got people going nuts i am think this could call alot people as cry wolf

[euro6208]

19 years ago today, Hurricane Fran made landfall over the U.S...

Landon Aydlett from NWS Guam...

I honestly don't think the states could handle such a storm anymore. They don't know a real disaster when faced with one anymore. Complete media chaos over small depressions. the hype and sensationalism. Then after the storm, you hear non stop it's due to global warming...climate change...the democrats' policies...the republicans' policies...it was bush's fault. The list goes on....
With that said, there's nothing much more to say. Let's let the Atlantic hurricane season continue on!
PS, I thoroughly enjoyed my time during Fran's passage. i was up ALL night listening to the winds howl and watching out all the windows with my flashlight to see how high the water was coming...ultimately it surrounded the whole house from the surge. but it never made it into the house this time. Didn't get many photos as i didnt have much FILM. nor did i have a cell phone to take photos. or even email/internet to communicate with others. what was internet? email? web address? does that need a stamp to email to?

Interesting nonetheless with the media tuning in...

[Kingarabian]

It's the media's fault more than anything.

It irritates me when I tune in and I see my weatherman displaying pretty graphics of model runs showing different outcomes, and then the official forecast.

It's obvious that tropical systems attract a lot of views and increase traffic thus more ad income.

[Alyono]

There is nothing stopping the media and the OCMs from issuing their own forecast if they do not think the official is sending the proper message. They issue their own forecasts for everything except tropical cyclones.

The private sector issues their own forecasts on TCs

[MGC]

Media hype to get more viewers.

[chaser1]

(WARNING: The following post is purely satirical, and NOT an official joke. It is solely written as opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data especially that originating from GFS, ECMWF, CMC (or any other forecast model). This deflated political football is not endorsed by any professional institution, the NFL, or Storm2k. For official information or humor, please refer to the NHC or SNL (respectively)

In light of the fact that no official explanation addressing model inconsistencies might ever be exposed to the general public, it's only a matter of time before the next series of YouTube conspiracy videos on the subject begin to circulate, such as:

VIDEO: "Recent accusations by ousted and deceased Libyan Dictator Muammar Gaddafi, claim CERN to blame for causing unnecessary National Weather Service Forecast Model malfunction, a result of scientific attempts to minimize further Earth magnetic pole shifts from fast approaching Nibiru... likely to impact over 95% of all Krispy Creme's, Taco Bell's, and Burger Kings worldwide..... sometime between now and last week!"

MEDIA: Efforts to reach NWS personnel for comment have thus far been unsuccessful, however recent undiscovered photos reveal what appear to be several Hurricane Forecasters playing Madden 2015 Hurricane Drone Center Fix during shift changes and dinner breaks... Meanwhile, political hopefuls were quick to respond to the emotional & raging national debate about National Weather Service funding cuts and their impact on Forecast Model accuracy, in light of this year's active Atlantic Hurricane MDR and their related risks. Various opinions included:
"Hurricanes? - Send them all back, they simply don't belong here" (Donald Trump), "I discussed this problem in a classified email recently forwarded to all my friends on Facebook" (Hillary Clinton), "Lets spend the money and fix the problem" (Deez Nuts), "What storms?" (Ninel Conde), "Its not about me" (Kayne West)

[terstorm1012]

This was a good article. I'm glad it was written, thanks for posting.

[TYNI]

Good article with one exception (IMHO):

Overselling single computer model forecasts = agree - he who reports can cite the model chosen as "a clear scientific source of data" (unfortunately)

Media headlines overselling the storm threat = agree - headlines = clicks/ad revenue

NHC not reaching the media and public with clear, consistent messages = do not agree - especially the comment "The Weather Channel’s Norcross writes the Hurricane Center’s antiquated and inflexible product suite is preventing it from presenting the most important messages to the masses." “Only the most experienced user knows how to aggregate an accurate understanding of the NHC’s thinking by assimilating the multiple links and formats, and even then the bottom line is often buried in the verbiage and/or a technical understanding of the products,” Norcross writes. “Most media people, social and otherwise, are not experienced users or are overwhelmed by the mechanics of deciphering and communicating the message on deadline. The result is: the public suffers.”

Basically, I see many people on this very forum (pro mets and amateurs) who have, or are capable of reading up on the models, and put in the homework to better understand them. An hour of reading will better prepare any media personnel to understand what they are reporting on. Notice the lovely disclaimer of "communicating the message on deadline". They'd rather report innaccuracies "on time", than potential life saving data a half hour later...

Just my humble opinion

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't pay any attention to them at all. I never open the Model threads here and automatically skip over any and all posts about them within other threads. They serve no purpose to me.

[blp]

NHC response: Good reading and they make great points.

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2015/09/1 ... orm-erika/