2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Yeah it has been inconsistent but at 240 hours it is down to 1004MB heading NE in the Gulf:

[perk]

Yeah it has been inconsistent but at 240 hours it is down to 1004MB heading NE in the Gulf:

yeah from a Texas hit to maybe Louisiana.

[stormlover2013]

Still been consistent though been showing something like this since last Friday

[bamajammer4eva]

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 21m21 minutes ago
Watching area near 30.8N 60.6W for tropical development [Invest 92L]: winds 15 mph moving ESE at 4 mph http://wxug.us/1q13a #hurricane

[Hurricaneman]

The models could be right if the coming MJO does indeed come the BOC and GOM would be the place to watch by the weekend for development of some kind

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[Alyono]

18Z MU agrees with the EC regarding an EPAC cane. No GOM development

[stormlover2013]

Euro been showing this since last week be interesting if it plays out prob won't but who knows

[Hammy]

Euro showing a stronger storm than earlier, further east, and starting development a bit sooner.

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17m17 minutes ago  State College, PA
ecmwf appears to be taking sneaky waves traveling Caribbean up into w gulf in 6-10 day and causing trouble. 3rd run in row

[tolakram]

Long range, and there's an EPAC system at the same time, but here's what it looks like, moving NE.





GFS has something as well but drives it inland so no development.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc also has something, euro has been really consistent....could be total wrong but this is the 3rd straight run and it's been hinting this since last week...so we shall see

[tolakram]

Euro insisted Erika would be a hurricane off Florida as well.

[stormlover2013]

yeah no doubt and then it was really consistent the last 5 days on the run though, euro could be wrong but when euro is consistent it raises a eye brow

[NDG]

I wouldn't trust the Euro's medium to long range forecast, it has been horrible.

[stormlover2013]

all models are like that, but euro does pretty good 5 days.

[gatorcane]

Euro has the Western Gulf system again on the 12Z and appears to be bringing in the timeframe on development.

[BigB0882]

Euro has the Western Gulf system again on the 12Z and appears to be bringing in the timeframe on development.

Where is it sending it? Still heading NE to the North or Northeastern Gulf?

[stormlover2013]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=255

[Hammy]

Euro insisted Erika would be a hurricane off Florida as well.

Every single model did at one point or another.

Euro is closing in on the 120 hour mark as far as genesis.

[gatorcane]

Euro has the Western Gulf system again on the 12Z and appears to be bringing in the timeframe on development.

Where is it sending it? Still heading NE to the North or Northeastern Gulf?

Looks to head north along the West coast of Mexico then NE offshore Texas then ENE offshore LA somehow missing the NW Gulf states. Quite an strange track, but it looks to get strong.