EPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

This is a normal EPAC hurricane evolution (quick intensification, followed y some sort of leveling off before the eye clears) but since it got going late, gonna get interrupted before we see significant intensification. Still, there is a slight chance this may fight its way to MH status briefly.

[Cyclenall]

On IR it looks like something strange is happening to the west side of the CDO, like shear is ripping it apart. I didn't spend much time looking into Linda because I thought this might be the case. The door is closing for this Linda to remember 1997 Linda .

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015

Linda's cloud pattern has become less organized since earlier today.
A 0116 UTC SSMIS pass showed the low-level center on the
northeastern tip of the deepest convection, to the northeast of
previous estimates. The distribution of convection in the cyclone's
central dense overcast has also become somewhat asymmetric. The
current structural organization of the cyclone suggests that
moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone has been a factor in
the system's evolution today. The initial intensity estimate is
lowered to 80 kt, on the lower end of a blend of Dvorak Final T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although most large-scale factors
could favor some additional intensification, the current arrested
development is likely to continue as Linda continues to feel the
effect of northeasterly shear associated with an upper-level
anticyclone to its northeast. Within 24 to 36 hours, Linda will be
traversing marginally cool waters and ingesting drier and more
stable air, which should result in slow but steady weakening. The
rate of weakening should become rapid in 2 to 3 days once Linda
reaches even colder waters and thermodynamic factors become
increasingly more hostile. Remnant low status is now predicted in 3
days. The new NHC forecast is lowered relative to the previous one
and generally lies near the multi-model consensus.

Linda has been moving northwestward or 325/09 throughout the day.
The cyclone is moving in a deep-layer southeasterly flow on the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over northern
Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of
days, which should result in a decrease in Linda's forward speed
while it maintains about the same heading. The low-level trades
should begin to steer the cyclone west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days,
and then westward after that time as Linda weakens and becomes an
increasingly shallower cyclone. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the right of the previous one, based on a re-positioning
of the center based on recent microwave fixes.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.8N 112.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.8N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 23.1N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 24.4N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 25.9N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 26.3N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z 26.3N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[talkon]

And here we go.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2015 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 20:17:32 N Lon : 113:13:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 962.6mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.3 degrees

[talkon]

Should be a major hurricane.

TXPZ23 KNES 081215
TCSENP

A. 15E (LINDA)

B. 08/1200Z

C. 20.7N

D. 113.6W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG RING WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED BY
WH. PT=5.5. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

Looks about to become a major now, lol.

[Yellow Evan]

Old adv from 2 AM:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080846
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015

Recent microwave data indicate that the inner-core structure of
Linda has improved since the previous advisory. A couple of AMSU
overpasses show that the primary convective band once again
wraps around the center, and that a ragged eye is trying to
form. The microwave images and 0516 UTC ASCAT data were very
helpful in locating the center of Linda, and these data indicate
that the center is more embedded within the CDO than earlier
in the evening. The initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt, which
is between the various Dvorak intensity estimates. Given the recent
increase in inner core organization, the initial wind speed estimate
could be a little conservative.

Although the official intensity forecast shows no change in
strength during the next 12 hours, environmental conditions
consisting of warm water and relatively low shear could allow
for a little intensification this morning. After that time,
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable
thermodynamic factors should cause weakening. The spin down should
become more rapid in 36 to 48 hours when Linda moves over SSTs
below 26 degrees Celsius and into a more stable environment. The
tropical cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low in about
72 hours.

Linda has been moving a little to the right of previous estimates,
and the motion is now north-northwest or 335/9 kt. The model
guidance suggests that the motion will bend back toward the
northwest later today as the cyclone moves around the western
portion of a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico. After 72
hours, the remnant low is expected to turn west-northwestward, and
then westward in the low-level flow to the west of the Baja
California peninsula. The model envelope has again shifted to the
right and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.1N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.5N 115.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 23.8N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.0N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

100 knots after all:


EP, 15, 2015090812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1136W, 100, 960, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 70, 80, 1007, 300, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LINDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
EP, 15, 2015090812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1136W, 100, 960, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 30, 40, 1007, 300, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LINDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
EP, 15, 2015090812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1136W, 100, 960, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 15, 20, 1007, 300, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LINDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

[Yellow Evan]

TAFB Special Classification (and regular one):

Code: Select all

EP, 15, 201509080900,  10, DVTS,          C,  , 1970N, 11320W,      , 3,    ,  ,     ,  , DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  DS,    I, 5,           ,      ,   , GOES15,

Code: Select all

201509081200,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 2070N, 11360W,      , 2, 115, 2,  948, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  SS,    I, 3, 6060 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T,

[Ntxw]

She did it, finally a ragged eye. Warm it a little and we're in business late in the game

[Yellow Evan]

Can't post stuff since I'm on my phone, but ADT is at 6.4. Hard not to say this is at least 105-110 knots.

[Ntxw]

A little warmer eye and you can argue this is cat 4 already if not close

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 21:19:45 N Lon : 114:06:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -8.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

[Ntxw]

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with around 110 now.

[Ntxw]

Eye continues to warm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2015 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 21:28:28 N Lon : 114:19:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

[Extratropical94]

I'd go with around 110 now.

Best track agrees.

15E LINDA 150908 1800 21.5N 114.5W EPAC 110 951

[Yellow Evan]

Old disco:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081434
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015

The satellite presentation of Linda has improved this morning, with
an eye becoming apparent in infrared imagery. Dvorak satellite
classifications were T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and T5.5/102 kt from
SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have increased to T5.9/112 kt.
The initial intensity is set conservatively to 105 kt given the
rapid change in the satellite presentation and the variation seen in
the definition of the eye in recent images. This makes Linda the
fifth major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin this year.

It would appear that Linda is peaking in intensity now, as the
cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a
drier more stable environment over the next several days. Slow
weakening is forecast today, followed by more rapid weakening due to
the above-mentioned unfavorable factors. The new NHC forecast is
higher than the previous one through 24 hours to account for the
initial intensity, but is similar to the previous official forecast
after that time. Linda should become a remnant low in about 3 days
over very cool waters west of the Baja California peninsula.

Linda has been moving a little faster during the past few hours,
with an initial motion estimate of 335/12. The tropical cyclone
should turn toward the northwest later today under the influence of
a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then
forecast to turn west-northwestward and westward by the end of the
period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The track model
guidance has continued to shift toward the right this cycle, and is
also a bit faster. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account
for those trends, and now lies on the left side of the guidance
envelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. The
analyzed 12-ft seas radii were increased based on data from a recent
Jason-2 satellite altimeter pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 23.7N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 25.0N 117.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 26.1N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 27.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 27.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kingarabian]

Proud of Linda! Really nice looking storm.

[Kingarabian]

Pheeew. Glad she's a fish.

[Yellow Evan]

Has likely peaked in intensity, but boy I did not expect this to make a run at Cat 3/4 after last night. Moving over the SST gradient so rapid weakening is likely now, but that was a fun ride.