2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours. What is the strength at landfall in LA? That is 981MB OVER LAND!

[tolakram]

If the NHC buys it they should post a 5 day chance during the 8PM update. Again, would love to be a fly on the wall.

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... ml#picture


but it still has tropical moisture out there where something has a chance to form

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has a strong hurricane (below 964mb) making landfall between Lake Charles & Lafayette next Friday around 22Z. I don't buy it.

[tolakram]

The 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours. What is the strength at landfall in LA? That is 981MB OVER LAND!

Weatherbell plots:

969MB 222 hours
967MB, 228 hours, post landfall

[gatorcane]

I just checked the UKMET and it has nothing in the Western Gulf through 144 hours, not sure about the BOC as the map doesn't go that far south. If the UKMET showed something too, I think chances might be rising something develops. The GFS has been almost too conservative at times this year so maybe it is missing development on this one.

[stormlover2013]

I hope its totally wrong!!!!!!!!!! to close to my house

[Alyono]

964mb at landfall. That is the BS

we could get a weak system. Not buying an intense hurricane

[stormlover2013]

‏@BigJoeBastardi
ECWMF has stronger run ( now 6 in a row with something) on west gulf threat next week.Pattern generation storm, rather than specific wave

[Hammy]

964mb at landfall. That is the BS

we could get a weak system. Not buying an intense hurricane

Euro is getting worse than the CMC, what is this four overblown storms it's shown since early August?

[Alyono]

964mb at landfall. That is the BS

we could get a weak system. Not buying an intense hurricane

Euro is getting worse than the CMC, what is this four overblown storms it's shown since early August?

Think they overcompensated for its previous low bias

[stormlover2013]

yeah I don't think we will see something that strong, I could see a strong tropical storm though

[Stormcenter]

Well I don't buy it just because it's more than a week away. IMO

12Z Euro has a strong hurricane (below 964mb) making landfall between Lake Charles & Lafayette next Friday around 22Z. I don't buy it.

[stormlover2013]

yeah stormcenter still longs way out no doubt, I do feel something could spin up though but not that strong lol that is a monster

[BigB0882]

I don't care about intensity at this stage, let's just see if something develops. It would cancel another LSU game if that run verified. Can't handle that. LOL!

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS wind shear graphic shows the shear does drop off quite dramatically in the Western Gulf and BOC in about a week from now. There is a huge upper high centered over Mexico with light upper-level NW winds over the WGOM, is the ECMWF moving that upper-high a bit further east over the WGOM? I can't see the ECMWF shear maps to know:

[stormlover2013]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_(1971)#/media/File:Edith_1971_track.png


ECMWF "bouncing" storm off Mexican coast . Edith, 1971 came to the coast as a TS, turned northeast hit SWLA cat 2

[Alyono]

The EC is total BS and likely more convective feedback. The ensemble control has nothing through 7 and a half days. If the ensemble control is not the same as the deterministic, you may want to check that deterministic run to be sure that nothing fishy is going on

[stormlover2013]

Larry Crosgrove said on his page that ensembles don't do a good job on tropical systems

[Stormcenter]

To those knocking the model runs these are the same models many on this board praise all the time. You can't have it both ways. Anyway like I said before still too far to take serious but \some thing to be aware of next week. It's that time of year. IMO