Texas Fall-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

WSI energy webinar this morning is thinking we get a modoki el nino the second half of winter. This promotes -NAO right? Been really looking hard at analogs trying to get a grasp on what to expect this winter.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

There's this little bit of soap on the wall in the shower and it's super annoying because I don't want to touch so I tried to wash it away but everything time I tried the water would just go right around it, I tried to hit it with different angles and it was like the water hit a shield just before It got to the soap. I named the soap spot Austin.

Oh, aren't you funny?! Don't you have some studying to do youngster?

For the record, the Portastorm Weather Center reported .24" of rainfall last evening. So there!

Don't feel too bad. Despite the widespread 2-2.5" totals reported across DFW, I checked in with .91" yesterday.

[Shoshana]

There's this little bit of soap on the wall in the shower and it's super annoying because I don't want to touch so I tried to wash it away but everything time I tried the water would just go right around it, I tried to hit it with different angles and it was like the water hit a shield just before It got to the soap. I named the soap spot Austin.

Oh, aren't you funny?! Don't you have some studying to do youngster?

For the record, the Portastorm Weather Center reported .24" of rainfall last evening. So there!

We must have been lucky, we had exactly 3" of rain last night.

[Tireman4]

There's this little bit of soap on the wall in the shower and it's super annoying because I don't want to touch so I tried to wash it away but everything time I tried the water would just go right around it, I tried to hit it with different angles and it was like the water hit a shield just before It got to the soap. I named the soap spot Austin.

Oh, aren't you funny?! Don't you have some studying to do youngster?

For the record, the Portastorm Weather Center reported .24" of rainfall last evening. So there!

You will show him sir. The Indians will make the playoffs. Snow will occur in abundance in Austin. Champ the Charger will ride again. Just wait sir. Just wait.

[TheProfessor]

There's this little bit of soap on the wall in the shower and it's super annoying because I don't want to touch so I tried to wash it away but everything time I tried the water would just go right around it, I tried to hit it with different angles and it was like the water hit a shield just before It got to the soap. I named the soap spot Austin.

Oh, aren't you funny?! Don't you have some studying to do youngster?

For the record, the Portastorm Weather Center reported .24" of rainfall last evening. So there!

We must have been lucky, we had exactly 3" of rain last night.

I was going to add that I was able to hit the top part of the soap a bit, that would equate to north right?

[TheProfessor]

There's this little bit of soap on the wall in the shower and it's super annoying because I don't want to touch so I tried to wash it away but everything time I tried the water would just go right around it, I tried to hit it with different angles and it was like the water hit a shield just before It got to the soap. I named the soap spot Austin.

Oh, aren't you funny?! Don't you have some studying to do youngster?

For the record, the Portastorm Weather Center reported .24" of rainfall last evening. So there!

You will show him sir. The Indians will make the playoffs. Snow will occur in abundance in Austin. Champ the Charger will ride again. Just wait sir. Just wait.

I'll try my best to send the snow down to Porta, maybe I'll become like my Grandmother where the weather from where I live follows me. Every time my grandmother came down from Topeka Kansas the weather would cool. Excepts for the Summer of 2011, I think it was hot in Kansas too lol

[Shoshana]

<snipped because of quote limits>

Oh, aren't you funny?! Don't you have some studying to do youngster?

For the record, the Portastorm Weather Center reported .24" of rainfall last evening. So there!

We must have been lucky, we had exactly 3" of rain last night.

I was going to add that I was able to hit the top part of the soap a bit, that would equate to north right?

Yup. East of I35 near P'ville

[dhweather]

Checking in with 1.06" in Heath yesterday, which was a pleasant surprise. I figured somewhere around 0.5 as thin as the line was when I went to bed, woke up and it was 0.9 and still lightly raining.

Dew points in the 40's & 50's this weekend - that's going to feel strange after the last couple of months.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.....Heavy Rain for Friday Night!

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST AUTUMN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SETTLING INTO
THE REGION ALREADY...WITH PW VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 2 INCHES.
MOISTURE COMPRESSING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SMALLER BOUNDARIES
HAVE ALREADY SPARKED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE TODAY...BUT
INSTABILITY ALOFT HAS STAYED WELL OFFSHORE STILL. TOMORROW WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE...
STARTING TO THE NORTH AND MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST ABOVE 2.2 INCHES...ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BE VERY HEAVY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE STORMS ARE
FIRING WITH A MOVING BOUNDARY...CELLS WONT BE IDLING ON ONE
LOCATION FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. THE MAIN FOCUS TIME FOR THE
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE HIGHER TOMORROW...
SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

TROPICAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIFTING A WEAK
CIRCULATION NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOWARD BROWNSVILLE BY
TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE AS A FEATURE.

[JDawg512]

Got roughly the same as you Porta, about 0.27. That storm sat right over the 35/290/183 triangle for over an hour so I'm not suprised that 3 inches fell in that area. Getting a storm right now with quite a bit of lightning.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I feel sorry for you guys excited about .27 inches of rain

[weatherdude1108]

For the record, the Portastorm Weather Center reported .24" of rainfall last evening. So there![/quote]


We must have been lucky, we had exactly 3" of rain last night.[/quote]

I was going to add that I was able to hit the top part of the soap a bit, that would equate to north right?[/quote]

Yup. East of I35 near P'ville[/quote]

0.00 in the Weatherdude Center gauge combined from yesterday and today. Maybe the showers around Florence will hold together on their trek south. Yeah right.

[Ntxw]

El Nino is slowly nipping away at the NPAC warm pool. It's no longer as dominant as it once was up in the gulf of Alaska, shifting further south.



Bit from the CPC ENSO blog about the relationship between ENSO and SST's up there which I fully agree with. The amount of energy put out by the El Nino is far greater than anything up there can do. With the weak to nonexistent ENSO signal the past two years, the NPAC warm pool was allowed to persist and be in control, however that is no longer the case.

******************
I keep hearing how the “Blob” (a large area of warm ocean temperatures off the West Coast of the U.S.) is going to be in a battle with this strong El Nino this winter. Which one will win?

El Nino and “the Blob” are not on an equal playing field, so the short answer is we expect El Niño to dominate the large-scale atmospheric pattern over the Pacific-North America this coming winter.

The Blob is not capable of changing the overlying atmospheric pattern in a significant way. In the Tropics, changes in ocean temperatures can easily lead to changes in the atmosphere above it. But outside of the Tropics, such as over the North Pacific Ocean, the physics are different, so ocean temperatures can’t effectively change the large-scale atmospheric flow or circulation pattern. The amount of heat in the Tropics is an enormous engine that drives rising motion and affects the whole globe’s circulation; the Blob is like a Fisher Price Power Wheel in comparison.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-and-qa

[ravyrn]

@ Porta

[Brent]

Where is sustained below normal temps like el nino favors?

[TheProfessor]

I don't like that map.

[weatherdude1108]

@ Porta

I think this applies to the northern burbs of Austin since this started. Porta and points just a couple miles from me got more than I did. I'm tired of this nonsense.

Where is THOR when you need him? We need him to crack open the dome with his trusty hammer!

[Portastorm]

This is true ... no dome over the PWC the last few days.

Yesterday afternoon we received .41" of rain in a late afternoon shower.

[WeatherNewbie]

The breeze definitely felt cooler while I was out at lunch.

[aggiecutter]

:uarrow:

This is true ... no dome over the PWC the last few days.

Yesterday afternoon we received .41" of rain in a late afternoon shower.

As you well know, the Dome(The OMEGA BLOCK) will return this winter. That is guaranteed!