Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

Some model support lead by the ECMWF. Should emerge in a few days, probably by Friday.

I circled the wave below:


12Z ECMWF day 5:

[TheStormExpert]

Not much to look at right now.

[gatorcane]

Still some decent model support here for something to develop looking at the 12Z Guidance. In fact the UKMET is quite bullish now with the CMC and NAVGEM models on board. Also it is flaring up nicely as the globals predicted. No mention by NHC yet but wouldn't be surprised if this is mentioned maybe tomorrow or Friday as it gets closer to the coast. Early indications suggest a possible FISH recurver over the Central Atlantic but too soon to know for sure yet.

[emeraldislenc]

Will be interesting !

[TheStormExpert]

Mentioned as of the 8pm TWO.

A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Thursday. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the weekend as it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[gatorcane]

Mentioned as of the 8pm TWO.

A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Thursday. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the weekend as it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[gatorcane]

RAMMB floater moved to this area:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Gustywind]

RAMMB floater moved to this area:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

How fast you are Gatorcane! That's always wonderfull to see how you share all these infos with us. Thanks.

[abajan]

Déjà vu: Grace Part Deux?

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

RAMMB floater moved to this area:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

How fast you are Gatorcane! That's always wonderfull to see how you share all these infos with us. Thanks.

You are welcome Gusty. Latest image shows some really cold cloud tops associated with this wave. Look at all of the yellow in there. It's not often you see cloud tops that cold.

[Gustywind]

Thanks my friend. Agree with that... very pretty intense convection!

[TheStormExpert]

8am TWO.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
later today. Some slow development of this wave is possible during
the next several days while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[wxman57]

Yep, another weak, sheared TS that either dissipates before reaching the Caribbean or heads northwest and out to sea to dissipate. That's what can be expected from this wave. The MDR remains quite a hostile environment.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this wave is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA TODAY WITH
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N15W TO 09N15W. A MODERATE SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS INDICATED IN SSMI TPW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 18N
BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 22W.

[Sanibel]

In to the zapper!

[abajan]

There's still time to place your bets on what the percentages will be at 8 PM, folks!

I'm betting it will be up to 10% and 30% for the 2 and 5 day outlook respectively.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%.

A tropical wave located near the coast of Africa continues to
produce disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this
wave is possible during the next several days while it moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS moves this all the way into the Leewards.

Models seem to be struggling with how strong the trough will be over the North-Central Atlantic. That tough is the result of Typhoon Kilo injecting energy into the Jet stream.

[Gustywind]

06Z GFS moves this all the way into the Leewards.

Models seem to be struggling with how strong the trough will be over the North-Central Atlantic. That tough is the result of Typhoon Kilo injecting energy into the Jet stream.

Interresting to note! Gatorcane , could you post the link related to the GFS? Thanks.