GOM looks messy (Is Invest 94L)

[rockyman]

The area just off the NE Mexican coastline looks somewhat interesting tonight.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-99.45,22.32,2048



850 vorticity:

[gatorcane]

Yeah and looks to be drifting ESE kinda odd its getting no attention its right under everyone's noses but it seems they are all looking at waves off Africa atm thousands of miles away, i'm not understanding that lodgic.

There is around 50K of shear over it with zero model support.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah and looks to be drifting ESE kinda odd its getting no attention its right under everyone's noses but it seems they are all looking at waves off Africa atm thousands of miles away, i'm not understanding that lodgic.

That's because there is nothing worth getting any attention. Just a few storms in the gulf with tons of shear.

Even the last few gfs runs have cut our precip totals to much of nothing for the next 10 days.

[NDG]

Shear is continuing to increase across the BOC, but even more disruptive to anything trying to form on the tail end of the frontal boundary is the westerly mid level shear. Far Eastern Atlantic is the only area with better UL conditions.

[rockyman]

Levi is watching:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 3674990592

Convection is strong:

[Dean4Storms]

Convection down there is really raging this morning, if it wasn't for the shear! Boom!

[rockyman]

Watching satellite loops, strong shear is evident across the northern half of the convective mass, but shear is much lower over the southern half of the mass.

[northjaxpro]

Shear is entirely too strong for development down there in the Bay of Campeche for at least from now through the next couple of days. However, if vorticity can linger down in that region heading into the latter portions of this week, then it may be possible for a bit better environment with reduced shear.

Conditions may get better as the week progresses and the BOC region may need to be watched. Right now, at least in the next 72 hours, virtually no chance for tropical cyclone development!

[perk]

:uarrow:

Shear is entirely too strong for development down there in the Bay of Campeche for at least from now through the next couple of days. However, if vorticity can linger down in that region heading into the latter portions of this week, then it may be possible for a bit better environment with reduced shear.

Conditions may get better as the week progresses and the BOC region may need to be watched. Right now, at least in the next 72 hours, virtually no chance for tropical cyclone development!

That shear will probably relax when that front lifts out.

[LarryWx]

Northjax/perk,
Looking at model consensus, I think that the best shot at TC genesis in the entire GOM this week will come NE of there as most of the remnant vorticity from Grace moves WNW into the GOM & possibly interacts with the old frontal related moisture. The 0Z Euro now has a weak closed sfc low forming 9/17 in the middle of the Gulf and sitting for about three days, a period during which shear will have weakened considerably from the current very strong levels and may not be that strong or strong at all by then. A sfc low forming and sitting over very warm water to the SW of a large nearly stationary and warming sfc high (in this case centered over the US MidAtlantic states) is actually not all that rare. It is a relatively favorable setup for sfc low genesis due to low level convergence of warm air inducing rising air below the high and possibly inducing sfc low genesis. Other models have had sfc low pressure forming near there around that time.
I still think the chances of TC genesis there are low but they may rise in my mind soon if future Euro runs and other models start picking up on this more. I expect this area toward the middle of the Gulf to start getting more attention by mid week and this could at least become an Invest around then.
Other opinions about this?

[Hurricaneman]

There is a LLC it looks like at 22.5N 97.2W

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NHC should highlight this, even if they only give it a 20%/20% shot at development. Shear is obviously unfavorable now, but there are already signs of a developing surface low, and the GFS upper-air forecast shows some semblance of anticyclonic flow developing before the disturbance moves ashore Mexico late Tuesday.

[Hurricaneman]

This is 94L

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! Second invest in about a week or so where an area becomes an invest before the NHC mentions it in their TWO's.

[Hurricaneman]

Wow! Second invest in about a week or so where an area becomes an invest before the NHC mentions it in their TWO's.

sometimes things come together quick and there is a clear LLC down there seemed as though as someone mentioned last night that a LLC was coming together and voila

[Extratropical94]

Thread can be closed.

Continue here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117556

[LarryWx]

Thread can be closed.

Continue here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117556

Maybe this thread will be closed, but keep in mind that this thread has been used for various Gulf entities over the last 10 days as opposed to just the current SW Gulf area. If this is closed, we could just create a new general Gulf thread.