ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 9/8/15 that has Nino 3.4 at +2.1. ONI at +1.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

2015 MEI is the second strongest El Nino on record.

[Ptarmigan]

I was looking at previous ENSO events and anomalies, I don't think this event is a late bloomer in events like 1982, 1991, and 2009. Those events looked modest until late in the fall when they went to town and peaked a bit later. This year has been gradual, consistent and predictable warming like in 1972 and 1997.

1972-1973 El Nino is one of the strong ones that occurred during cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

[cycloneye]

CPC September update of 9/10/15 says 95% of El Nino lasting thru early winter but weakening after that time.


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

During August, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near or greater than +2.0oC across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3.4 and Niño 3-regions, were approximately unchanged in the Niño-4 region, and decreased in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Large positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month (Fig. 3), with the largest departures exceeding 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere remained coupled to the anomalous oceanic warmth, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were again negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

Great blog as usual by CPC where interesting questions are asked and answered.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ate-and-qa

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/09/10/a ... /21234319/

[Hurricaneman]

This El Nino will level off if not now very shortly for a few months and start its decline around February and by May el nino will probably be a thing of the past for a few years

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, for the first time in at least several months, the Euro weeklies actually suggest a slight cooling of anomalies around 110-120W from week 3 to week 4. I'm not sure of the significance nor the accuracy of the prediction. Also, the cooling shown is only slight.

[Ntxw]

Latest SSH from Jason-2 Nasa



Back in mid-late August

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Interestingly, for the first time in at least several months, the Euro weeklies actually suggest a slight cooling of anomalies around 110-120W from week 3 to week 4. I'm not sure of the significance nor the accuracy of the prediction. Also, the cooling shown is only slight.

Considering we're already over 2C weekly readings it wouldn't be a surprise to have things slow down. We won't see the rapid warming we saw in July, naturally because it is already near the ceiling and the climatology in September often slows down El Nino's (southern hemisphere SST's slowly warms thus anomalies shift with the climo). Even in 1997 and 1982 things were stalled. October and November will see more warming in what will likely be the peak of this event and persist through January.

[Ntxw]

Going up to 2.3C this week

With this the reading is the strongest weekly reading for the month of September for 3.4 beating 1997's 2.2C. This after August had its highest.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Like Webb said YIKES!! Ntxw what is your take on this?

Eric Webb ‏@webberweather · 12m12 minutes ago
Latest weekly NINO 3.4 anomaly @ +2.3C in OISSTv2. ONI (1986-2015 base pd) should approach ~ +1.9C in JAS. Yikes...

[Dean_175]

That's based on OISSTv2 (1986-2015 climatology)- which isn't the dataset the ONI is normally calculated from. Just goes to show how much of a difference there is between the OISST and the ERSST datasets. ERSSTv3 and v4 show 1.2C and 1.3C respectively for JJA. ERSSTv4 monthly for August was 1.49C-impressive but quite a bit lower than the 2.0C+ super Nino that OISST is showing.

While the "real" ONI may exceed 2.0C for OND or NDJ, there is a good chance that it won't. We may end up a bit lower-like around 1.8C or so at peak. But that is just a guess.

[Ntxw]

And it doesn't even match when comparing apples to apples. I.E. using OISSTv2 for two years then matching ERSSTv4 for the same period of the two. Regardless though, all other data sets are quite high (if not all higher than ONI) so it's a fair assessment to say this El Nino is up there with the top 3 or 2. In some cases 1 or 2. Whether or not ONI gets dubbed Super El Nino, you're not going to get much argument that it wasn't. It is up there being one of the strongest events we have seen the past 50 years.

[Ntxw]

While not direct, Los Angeles just had nearly 2 inches of rain today (Linda moisture) and with Dolores remnants earlier this summer it has been abnormally wet during the dry time of year for SoCal. Not many have been talking about.

Sept averages 0.27 inches of rain in Downtown LA. This however does not help much in terms of the water supply. What will be needed here is the mountain snows this winter.

[CaliforniaResident]

While not direct, Los Angeles just had nearly 2 inches of rain today (Linda moisture) and with Dolores remnants earlier this summer it has been abnormally wet during the dry time of year for SoCal. Not many have been talking about.

Sept averages 0.27 inches of rain in Downtown LA. This however does not help much in terms of the water supply. What will be needed here is the mountain snows this winter.

Yep; Linda's heavy rains (extremely heavy by Southern California standards) caught everyone off guard since we were only expecting scattered showers. Havoc on the morning commute and people calling in sick and skipping classes due to fact that everyone "knows" how bad the traffic and roads are when we get the first rain of the fall.

More tropical moisture expected next week (remnants of the yet-to-form Marty?).

SST has also reached 26 C off of San Diego which is technically warm enough to sustain a hurricane should we get another strong EPAC storm that moves up off the coast of Baja.

[HURRICANELONNY]

While not direct, Los Angeles just had nearly 2 inches of rain today (Linda moisture) and with Dolores remnants earlier this summer it has been abnormally wet during the dry time of year for SoCal. Not many have been talking about.

Sept averages 0.27 inches of rain in Downtown LA. This however does not help much in terms of the water supply. What will be needed here is the mountain snows this winter.

Yep; Linda's heavy rains (extremely heavy by Southern California standards) caught everyone off guard since we were only expecting scattered showers. Havoc on the morning commute and people calling in sick and skipping classes due to fact that everyone "knows" how bad the traffic and roads are when we get the first rain of the fall.

More tropical moisture expected next week (remnants of the yet-to-form Marty?).

SST has also reached 26 C off of San Diego which is technically warm enough to sustain a hurricane should we get another strong EPAC storm that moves up off the coast of Baja.

Wow. Has that ever happen?

[tstorm98]

2.39 inches of rain to be exact in Downtown LA

[Ntxw]

Mike Ventrice on twitter posted this



And today it's been raining in NorCal. Can anyone say El Nino?