Grace remnants (Is Invest 96L)

[tailgater]

Pretty sure this could be the remnants of Grace. Someone pulled the plug on her but she still had a little energy and moisture left,

[ronjon]

Yeah crazy uncle model (CMC) and to a weaker extent Euro,Navgem, and GFS develop low pressure in the GOM from Graces remnants.

[HurricaneBelle]

Yeah, yet MORE rain from Grace's remnants is predicted to fall along the FL West Coast, from this morning's Tampa Bay AFD:

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY IT...REPRESENTED BY PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWIXT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE GULF
COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

Also I've noticed on satellite this morning that the remnants have flared up over eastern Cuba and Jamaica this morning after fading over Hispaniola yesterday.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows Grace's remnants redeveloping a weak low and moving slowly west in the Gulf.

[ronjon]

Lowest pressure from the 12z GFS is 1007 mb. It slowly meanders off to the N-NW toward New Orleans.

[ronjon]

For whats its worth, 12z NAM continues to develop the low pressure in the GOM.

12z NAM

[chaser1]

For whats its worth, 12z NAM continues to develop the low pressure in the GOM.

12z NAM

Crazy year, huh? LOL Any other year, i'd never admit to even looking at the NAM regarding tropical genesis, however given all the inconsistency that the Global s are having this year, i'm almost apt to consider that the NAM might not be the worst tool to consider when considering "near CONUS region" development. Heck, right now we have invests 93L, 94L, and 95L yet I"m a bit more curious about the NAM picking up a slowly deepening low in the E. Gulf from Grace's remnants. As evidenced in this a.m.'s GFS run depicting near term 200mb winds, there is a strong upper cyclone near W. Texas. I'd be curious whether a smaller upper anticyclone might develop over a weak low that might eventually develop in the SE Gulf and whether the larger/strong upper high further west, might potentially "build east" to bridge such a feature. Present short term forecasts depict an upper high as well over and east of the Bahamas. I suppose if future runs depict a less progressive pattern with even deeper upper level troughing upstream (over California/W. US), then such might indicate a somewhat broader ridge could set up over the Southeast CONUS and Gulf region. Conditions then would seem to be more conducive for tropical development. Of course there's no reason to bet on such an outcome but then again, what model guidance do we presently have that has been truly reliable this year?

[jlauderdal]

For whats its worth, 12z NAM continues to develop the low pressure in the GOM.

12z NAM

Crazy year, huh? LOL Any other year, i'd never admit to even looking at the NAM regarding tropical genesis, however given all the inconsistency that the Global s are having this year, i'm almost apt to consider that the NAM might not be the worst tool to consider when considering "near CONUS region" development. Heck, right now we have invests 93L, 94L, and 95L yet I"m a bit more curious about the NAM picking up a slowly deepening low in the E. Gulf from Grace's remnants. As evidenced in this a.m.'s GFS run depicting near term 200mb winds, there is a strong upper cyclone near W. Texas. I'd be curious whether a smaller upper anticyclone might develop over a weak low that might eventually develop in the SE Gulf and whether the larger/strong upper high further west, might potentially "build east" to bridge such a feature. Present short term forecasts depict an upper high as well over and east of the Bahamas. I suppose if future runs depict a less progressive pattern with even deeper upper level troughing upstream (over California/W. US), then such might indicate a somewhat broader ridge could set up over the Southeast CONUS and Gulf region. Conditions then would seem to be more conducive for tropical development. Of course there's no reason to bet on such an outcome but then again, what model guidance do we presently have that has been truly reliable this year?

preparing in SE Florida for the Monday nighttime assault of grace

[Weatherwatcher98]

Depends on the shear I guess. Weird year

[emeraldislenc]

Very interesting!

[Weatherwatcher98]

Very interesting!

believe it or not I am looking west, this will have a reason for the upcoming pattern

[ronjon]

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY/...NWS Tampa Bay AFD
RIDGING ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL BE RIDGING DOWN OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES WEST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WAVE STALLS OVER THE GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
GIVES WAY TO THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 70S.

[NDG]

Yeah, models have been forecasting Grace's remnants redevelop in some degree in the eastern GOM. I don't expect much intensification and or organization tropically speaking as it will be interacting with an UL trough, the story of this season.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM now shows a 1005MB low in the Central GOM:

[ronjon]

Can clearly see the wave axis just west of Andros island on Miami RAD.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[ronjon]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

...STORMY NIGHT FORECAST EAST COAST, ESPECIALLY LATE...
...RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT-TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN BAHAMAS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRETCHED OUT REMNANTS OF GRACE. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE-E
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS...15-20 KT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. H5 TEMPS CONTINUE COLDER THAN
AVERAGE (NEAR -8C) AND PW WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES. GIVEN
THIS...AM FORECASTING ACTIVE TSTORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH AT
TIMES FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH. THE
TSTORM RISK LOOKS HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
MOVE, BUT IF TRAINING CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP, THEN ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

[floridasun78]

wfor ch4 weather man day Grace remnants may stall eastern gulf and may form low west tampa by weekend that keep fl on stormy weather for next 7 days

[Hurricaneman]

The thing would be would this still be called Grace if it regenerated or something completely new. My guess since it maintained some sort of MLC would be it stays Grace

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[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like the remnants are in the Florida Straits now, perhaps a bit of spin south of the middle Keys.

[chaser1]

18Z NAM now shows a 1005MB low in the Central GOM:

0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS now showing 1005 low in East Central Gulf at 81 hours. Still need a few more runs to give much credence towards this however. That, and perhaps some renewed interest on the part of our crazy "EURO" uncle, LOL.