ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

[emeraldislenc]

It is looking a little better as the day goes on!

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it's starting to trek to the NW.

[Sanibel]

Improved naked swirl!

[HurricaneBelle]

Improved naked swirl!

I think we can upgrade it to scantily clad swirl.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system located about midway between the Cape Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a little more shower
activity than it was yesterday. Some development of this low is
possible during the next day or so before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This low is expected to move generally northwestward at
about 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[floridasun78]

look better what we saw on monday

[1900hurricane]

93L is getting some convection again, and an earlier ASCAT pass suggested that there is still a weak but closed surface circulation with the invest. If convection can be sustained, it actually shouldn't be too hard to get this classified as a depression.

[supercane]

Development chances back up to 70%.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160504
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Some additional
development of this low is possible, and it could become a tropical
depression before upper-level winds become unfavorable in a day or
so. This low is expected to move generally northwestward at about 10
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles south-southwest
of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next
few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[AutoPenalti]

At this point I feel that any model run is useless without TC genesis. It looks stationary IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 90/90.

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized
during the past few hours in association with a low pressure system
located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. If these trends continue, a tropical depression could
form later this morning before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development by tomorrow. This system is expected to
move north-northwestward to northwestward over the central Atlantic
at about 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[wxman57]

Looks like a depression today. No question about the LLC, and now there is convection around the center. Much more impressive than TS Henri last week...

[YoshiMike]

Did this system start to recurve when expected or did it move further west than expected? Idk how to check for that I am sorry to ask.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 16 2015

Organized convection associated with the area of low pressure in the
central tropical Atlantic has now increased to the point that the
system is considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is 25
kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications and in agreement with
earlier ASCAT wind data. Some southwesterly shear is already
affecting the cyclone, with most of the convection displaced east
and north of the estimated center position. The environment only
becomes less favorable from this point forward, with the shear
forecast to quickly increase in 12 to 24 hours and remain high
through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, the
southwesterly flow aloft will bring dry mid- to upper-level air over
the cyclone. As a result, only slight strengthening is shown in the
NHC forecast following the trend of most of the intensity guidance.
The cyclone is expected to weaken to a remnant low by 72 hours.
After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models show the system weakening
and perhaps opening up into a trough in about 5 days, so the
official forecast shows dissipation at that time.

The initial motion estimate is 340/07, as the depression is moving
into a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This north-
northwestward to northwestward motion should continue for the next
2 to 3 days, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by 96
hours as the shallow cyclone comes under the steering influence of
the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to
the middle of the guidance envelope and near a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 18.5N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 22.0N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z 24.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[NDG]

Yeap, westerly shear is already affecting the system, with the weak LLC now west of the convection with outflow boundaries nominating the western quadrant, not surprised at all that it is not forecasted to become a TS.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Ida will have to wait...

[wxman57]

Well, this is another quite exciting storm! Shear is already hitting it. Convection is diminishing. Next...

[EquusStorm]

That didn't take long.

If it had maintained convection a little earlier I suspect we'd have briefly seen a tropical storm out of it for a couple of days, but didn't seem to wanna do that till shear started knocking on the door. I wonder if it will clear out some dry air and enhance the system behind it a little... kind of a banzai desperate last ditch effort to carve out a tiny little favorable niche for a brief window of development amidst the El Nino fueled deluxe industrial tropical storm-shredder.

Still cheering for a brief upgrade. Would further ruin our average ACE but at least get the usually-destructive 'I' name out of the way.

Still far better than 2013, I continue to conclude.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
500 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015

The satellite presentation of the depression has degraded during
the past few hours, with dry air and southwesterly shear resulting
in the convection become displaced from the low-level center. The
convection itself has not become better organized, and has a rather
linear shape to the east and northeast of the center. The initial
intensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from
SAB. The prospects for the cyclone to strengthen, or even survive,
appear quite poor. The shear is forecast to increase markedly in the
next 12 to 24 hours, and the shear in combination with dry air
should result in the cyclone weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours.
The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by 5 days, in best
agreement with the latest GFS forecast.

The exposed low-level center is located about a degree to the west
of the previous advisory estimate, with an initial motion of
310/07. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward
adjustment to the track forecast this cycle of 1 to 2 degrees. The
new NHC forecast lies between the shallow BAM and to the left of
the rest of the model guidance in the short term given the sheared
nature of the system and its current motion. After that time, the
NHC forecast is close to the HWRF and GEFS ensemble mean and still
left of the multi-model consensus aids. Given the current
disorganized state of the depression, the track forecast is quite
uncertain through the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 15.2N 44.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 15.9N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.0N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 20.5N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 21.5N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

[tatertawt24]

Gotta love the Atlantic. "No hurricane for you!"

[abajan]

:lol: Gotta love the Atlantic. "No hurricane for you!"

You need to lay off watching Seinfeld reruns.