Grace remnants (Is Invest 96L)

[caneman]

Actually the shear map i saw showed it dropping off in 48 hours. Can someone post a link?

[floridasun78]

Actually the shear map i saw showed it dropping off in 48 hours. Can someone post a link?

shear bit high gulf not dropping northern gulf

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity and convection are increasing in the southern gulf just north west of the western tip of Cuba.

[LarryWx]

Vorticity and convection are increasing in the southern gulf just north west of the western tip of Cuba.

Yes it is and it should be watched but this was largely predicted by even the more reliable models unless I'm missing something. So, as of now, I'm not anticipating TC genesis anytime too soon. Any other opinions?

[wxman57]

Actually the shear map i saw showed it dropping off in 48 hours. Can someone post a link?

Best place is Tropical Tidbits. Select either the Atlantic or West Atlantic map. Choose "Upper Dynamics" and select "200-850mb Wind Shear".

Like this for 12Z today:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=shear&runtime=2015091612&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=204

[caneman]

Thanks for the links

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity is on the increase and convection is trying to build closer to the center of vorticity. The shear is high though especially across the Northern Gulf, not so much across the Southern Gulf. We may see a mention in the next Outlook.



Saved loop:

[gatorcane]

Yep it is mentioned:

A large area of disturbed weather, extending from the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida, is associated with a
broad trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move
northeastward and spread heavy rains over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next day or two. Upper-level winds are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation at this time, but
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical
or subtropical development during the weekend when the system
reaches the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
&&

[northjaxpro]

Well, I have already picked up nearly 5 inches of rain since Monday evening for this event to this point. Flood watches posted across Northeast Florida through tomorrow night. Slight chance a hybrid system of some sort could develop the next few days, but nothing significant due to the shear imo. Lots of rain still to move through North and Central Florida.

[northjaxpro]

WPC and NHC surface analysis at 21Z shows the 1013 mb Low Pressure area estimated about 150 miles north of the Yucatan Peninsula
along the surface trough axis across the Eastern GOM.

[ronjon]

Looking very interesting on SAT in the SE GOM tonite. Might see an INVEST soon.

[northjaxpro]

I think it will be designated an invest on tomorrow.

[ronjon]

Yeah the NAM might be right this time, lol.

[galaxy401]

If it does get upgraded, it seems like it won't be Grace anymore since they didn't mention it in the outlook.

[asd123]

I am not an expert in weather, but doesn't a 1003 mb low pressure center combined with a closed strong, vorticity equal a tropical system? Surface winds don't look that impressive though. Maybe looks like barely a weak depression?

Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits, Note sw of Tampa Bay:

[NDG]

The disturbance is very disorganized, there's no LLC near the deep convection approaching the Keys now, nothing more than a vorticity.
The broad surface low pressure is north of the Yucatan, shear is pushing the convection east away from the surface low.

[northjaxpro]

I agree NDG shear is a bit too strong while the broad Low is in the GOM. However, there is a chance during Saturday into Sunday, a few of the models have the Low organizing just off the SC coast as it moves northeast out in the Atlantic. It appears shear may drop off just enough as the system moves away from Florida in a couple of days for it to maybe become a minimal TS or hybrid/STS at least. NHC sees this possibility as well. Worth watching over the next few days. Regardless, more heavy rainfall is coming to impact this area over the next couple of days with this system moving northeast across the peninsula the next couple of days.

[blp]

00z GFS now showing vorticity in Gulf through 24hrs versus previous runs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_5.png

[Extratropical94]

A large area of disturbed weather, extending from the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida, is associated with a
broad trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move
northeastward and spread heavy rains over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next day or two. A low pressure area may
form over the western Atlantic over the weekend, when conditions
could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical
cyclone development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[ronjon]

Starting to look impressive about 125 miles west of Naples this morning on Radar. We should have an INVEST soon IMO.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes