Grace remnants (Is Invest 96L)

[wxman57]

I can never understand the steering current map on the Steering Layer 700-850mb - West Atlantic. It shows lines with arrows pointing SW instead of this blob moving NE. Why would it move NE if the steering currents from the Wisconsin website show the arrows pointing SW?

Thanks.

You mean the map below? It's just a static shot of mean flow between 850mb and 700mb (5000-10000 ft). Note what appears to be a blocking high SE of Cape Cod. Also look at the flow coming out of the SSE east of Florida. Now consider that the high is moving eastward and anything over Florida will be butting up against flow from the SSE-S very shortly. As the high moves farther east, that movement will change to more southerly to SSW, which would take any disturbance to the north or north-northeast.

These kind of charts are NOT very good for predicting movement outside of the very deep tropics, where the flow remains basically the same all the time. When a disturbance is north of the deep tropics there are too many day-to-day flow changes to be able to use a static chart to predict future movement.

[lrak]

Thank you Mr. wxman57! You always help me to understand in a layman's way.

[StarmanHDB]

I don't care what this mess becomes! I just want it gone! It's wreaking havoc with my sinuses and my head feels like its going to explode! Away with you!

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather extending from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean is associated with a broad surface low interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system will move generally
northeastward producing heavy rains across portions of Florida
through Friday. Surface pressures are already falling in this
region, and when system moves over the Atlantic waters within a
couple of days, conditions could become somewhat conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone development. For more information on
this system, see products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Hurricaneman]

the 0zGFS is trying to develop this off the Carolinas but shear just seems too strong

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve]

Fwiw, NAM and 72 hours of GFS seem to favor some development but on the way up and out. Nam is a tiny bit slower. Possible TD/TS Imho before getting caught up in the westerlies. That's a major hot zone area for me this year though there hasn't been enough juice to crank strong systems in the SW atlantic as I would have thought. Season isn't over for that area, but I'm more looking to see what comes next. We are sort of heading into that part of this season where you have to watch the Western Caribbean and BoC. If something goes down stateside after grace's remnants, I think those are two of the places that still have a shot in 2015. Again, jmo based on trends.

[Steve]

Not much. Maybe a minor clip on St. John's Island from GFS but not much else. Conditions include lots of high pressure on and off the east coast. I think ninel mentioned the other day about a similar upcoming (then!) pattern condusive to us landfalls. Of course you kind of need there to actually be tropical systems for the pattern to matter.

[Extratropical94]

A large area of disturbed weather extending from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an
upper-level trough. Surface observations indicate that a low
pressure area is forming just east of the northern Florida
Peninsula, and there is some potential for this low to develop into
a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next few days as it
moves slowly northeastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula today.
For more information on this system, see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, checking ship reports and buoys and JAX radar indicates just east of Saint Augustine, there is evidence of a Low Pressure area of around 1007 mb developing about 50-100 miles off shore. Satellite imagery shows that the Low is organizing rather quickly as well as it is drifting slowly northeast. Looks rather impressive, although the deepest convection is sheared off just to the east of where the LLC is developing currently. Also, the disturbed weather covers a large area just off the SE U.S. Atlantic coast. I think this system is on its way to being a tropical/sub-tropical cyclone this weekend as apparently shear levels off the SE U.S. coast are at least marginally favorable for some development during this weekend.

[NDG]

The system has that hybrid look, it almost looks like a Nor'easter developing.

I don't see that the models show the shear drop and or UL conditions become favorable for a tropical storm to form, at the most this could become a subtropical storm before becoming extra tropical.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 96L