2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Well NAVGEM doesn't develop much the system east of the Marianas but does develop another system west of Saipan and intensifies it close to typhoon southeast of Okinawa.

JMA develops the eastern system.

EURO like most of the models develop the eastern system and intensifies it to a TS and TY as it recurves. Peak 977mb.

[euro6208]

All the models develop this with EURO taking it over the Northernmost islands of the CNMI as a TS while GFS is further north...

[euro6208]

GFS hinting on either Vamco, Krovanh, or Dujuan...

[euro6208]

The basin starting to become more favorable with westerly winds noted bringing increased winds and rain to the Marshall Islands. These could be a precursor of more cyclone activity down the road as we've seen this year.


000
WWPQ80 PGUM 132312
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST MON SEP 14 2015

PMZ181-141100-
MAJURO-
900 AM CHST MON SEP 14 2015

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SURGING WEST MONSOON WINDS ARE CAUSING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SATELLITE SHOWS
RAIN SHOWERS COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA FROM WOTJE ATOLL TO
AILINGLAPLAP AND MAJURO ATOLLS...AND JALUIT TO MILI ATOLLS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF.

WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES FOR THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE NEAR
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET
NEAR THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE PASSES IN AND OUT OF THE
ATOLLS.

INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR SMALL BOATS THROUGH TODAY
AT LEAST. RESIDENTS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND PAY ATTENTION TO LATER STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES.
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

EURO agrees with GFS on developing Dujuan at 144 hours and through 240 hours with very little movement.

Bring on the rain!

[euro6208]

Mixed signals...

GFS has been on and off in developing a monster typhoon near the dateline but latest 1406z has nothing and doesn't develop Dujuan.

13 06z



14 06z



I can't imagine what this sleeping giant will deliver.

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z ECMWF has a large magnitude of negative height anomalies painted all across the subtropics in the medium range. With subtropical ridging basically non-existent, anything forming 5-10+ days out will likely be going north without much coaxing.

Maybe it was just one wonky run? Regardless, predictability appears pretty low in the North Pacific right now.

[1900hurricane]

I just posted a thread for newly-designated Invest 97W.

*EDIT: this became Typhoon Dujuan.

[dexterlabio]

I remember our fellow storm2k member spiral mentioned that the models could not be as reliable after the twin typhoons, as one pro-met has tweeted. I want to get back on that since lately the models have been showing a few potent storms in medium to long range that never materialized..not only in the WPAC but also in other basins as well. I also remember some runs from the GFS showing a couple or vortices over the Pacific moving east, which seems odd and could indicate some kind of error. I wonder what causes error in the models, if there indeed is. It's kind of scary if the models become "blind" one day because meteorological forecasts are heavily based on their outputs, especially when that day is the peak of the typhoon season...

[euro6208]

EURO starting to hint on Mujigae near the dateline east of Dujuan.

[euro6208]

Models still hinting on Mujigae to break off from large Dujuan...

[euro6208]

Mother load of rain ...drifts west and has a unrealistic looking sharp recurve.

That's currently Invest 97W...

Looking like a very wet cool windy week next week. We need a break from the hot weather.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance seems to be wavering on developing something behind 97W. Multiple models still develop the second system, but several have dropped it recently. They might not have a good handle on this one until 97W fully consolidates into a namable tropical cyclone.

[euro6208]

While NAVGEM, CMC, and GFS develops the next systems behind Dujuan, EURO drops any potential.

NAVGEM develops two systems, Mujigae and Choi-wan, in a very active monsoon trough in a series of train that includes Dujuan and both affects the Marianas.

CMC has Mujigae east of the Marianas.

GFS develops only Mujigae near the Ryukyu Islands and and strengthens it to a typhoon as it recurves east of Japan.

[euro6208]

Jim Edds in Guam ready for the nino Super typhoons!

RIP Leonard.

[euro6208]

Looks like a quiet period after Dujuan.

NAVGEM has dropped both systems that was forecast to develop in an active monsoon trough.

CMC still with the idea of multiple systems but very long range.

GFS dropped the system.

[euro6208]

Latest EURO and GFS still showing a quiet end for September as we head to October...

[euro6208]

EURO showing what looks to be 3 tropical cyclones forming the first day of October...



GFS is later on during the second week with 2 possible TC formation...

[1900hurricane]

Starting to see some more hints at near dateline stuff 7-10 days out. Let's see if it sticks this time.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM with Mujigae near the dateline...