CPAC: MALIA - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

Please wait for the advisory before changing the header next time.

Sorry about that, I'll remember next time.



BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 174.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSW OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT STARTING
ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS WILL ARRIVE ON THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT ON SATURDAY...AND SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY LARGE AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS ON
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA45 PHFO 190251
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
JOHNSTON ISLAND DEVELOPED WELL-DEFINED BANDING WITHIN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHERN QUADRANT TODAY. A 2102 UTC ASCAT PASS
DETECTED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NUMEROUS AREAS OF 30
KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C...THE TENTH TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE 2015 SEASON. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0/30 KT FROM HFO AND SAB
AND 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 35 DEGREES...AT 13
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THIS TRACK BETWEEN A DEEP RIDGE
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOTION IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY. THE CYCLONE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE ON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT INCREASINGLY INTERACTS WITH THE SLOW
MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODEL
ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF DIVERGING
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE
BIG CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FIVE-C IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND IS
EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS FLOW IS
RESTRICTING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT IS PRODUCING AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EDGES CLOSER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AND ARREST
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LGEM
CLOSELY AND ASSUMES THAT THIS PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...IN WHICH MOST MEMBERS ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY LONGER.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.6N 174.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.8N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 21.1N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 22.9N 172.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 24.8N 172.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 29.5N 172.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 37.1N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 42.2N 176.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDCIATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DEEP
CONVECTION IS PULSING CLOSE TO THE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/...WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PHFO/PGTW/KNES NEARLY ONE DEGREE APART IN THEIR
CENTER POSITIONS. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THESE AGENCIES ALL
DERIVED 2.0/30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY USED FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

A 0359Z SSMIS OVERPASS HELPED IN CENTER LOCATION...WITH THE CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS...DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 030/08 KT...DUE
TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
WHILE INITIALLY MOVING ON A MOTION VECTOR EAST OF NORTH...THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AT THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. THE UPDATED TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
HOWEVER THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STEADILY
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT
TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HOW THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 15-20 KT TO 30-
40 KT IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. THE SHEAR CONTINUES TO RESTRICT
OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT IS PRODUCING AN OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT AND THE CYCLONE DECREASES...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAMP
UP QUICKLY...AND LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE UPDATED
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS
GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN INTACT
IN THE LATER PERIODS...AND WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
INCREASINGLY INTERACTS WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.5N 173.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.7N 173.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 21.3N 172.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 23.2N 172.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 25.3N 172.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 30.4N 172.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 36.0N 173.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0600Z 42.0N 177.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[supercane]

284
WTPA45 PHFO 191500
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2015

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A MASS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS PERSISTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY TIMELY OR USEFUL MICROWAVE PASSES...
BI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS HINTS OF LOW CLOUD LINES CURVING INTO WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE DIFFICULTY IN FINDING
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO/PGTW/KNES...WHICH ARE NEARLY 2 DEGREES
APART IN THEIR CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES. LATEST T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM
2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO/KNES WHILE JTWC DERIVED 2.5/35 KT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED
AT 30 KT.

FOR REASONS DESCRIBED ABOVE...THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/08 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHEAST...AND AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW ALOFT
CENTERED TO THE DISTANT NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY...AS THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST DRAWS CLOSER...AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN TAKING THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE TO LAYSAN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACROSS-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RELIABLE TRACK
MODELS...THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE.

SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES STEADILY DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HOWEVER CONTINUES TO HINGE ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CYCLONE
AND THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR TO WHICH
IT WILL BE EXPOSED. AS THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE CYCLONE DECREASES...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
RAMP UP QUICKLY...INCREASING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF 15-20 KT TO
30-40 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES
SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN LINE WITH LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW...IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS ON DAY 5.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM GETS ENGULFED IN THE LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW ALOFT.

THE LATEST FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF
TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE AREA FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND TO PEARL AND HERMES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.4N 173.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 20.5N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.1N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 23.9N 172.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 26.5N 171.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 31.2N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 37.5N 174.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED



FORECASTER BIRCHARD

944
WTPA35 PHFO 191443
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2015

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C TRACKING NORTHEAST

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 173.3W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM S OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO PEARL AND HERMES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO PEARL AND HERMES.

[Extratropical94]

Still no Malia in sight.

05C FIVE 150919 1800 18.7N 174.5W CPAC 30 1005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
800 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 173.7W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM NW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[Kingarabian]

So we're on track to see our 6th CPAC named storm?

[Extratropical94]

So we're on track to see our 6th CPAC named storm?

I hope so, but currently shear is affecting the system.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2015

THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE MORNING SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH
THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 25 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS
ESTIMATE AND CIMSS ANALYSIS. A PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0/30 KT FROM HFO AND SAB TO 2.5/35 KT FROM
JTWC...WITH A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATIONS. THE
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION
HAS BEEN SLOWED TO 5 KT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OR 15 DEGREES.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ON A GENERAL...LONG-TERM NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
TRACK BETWEEN A BROAD...DEEP AND SLOWLY DIGGING TROUGH FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AND
SLOWLY GAIN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH INCREASES. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE DEEP TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SLOWED IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THIS
MORNING AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ENVELOPE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES...AND THE FORECAST WAS COORDINATED
WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ASSUMING THAT THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM CAN REMAIN COUPLED UNDER CONTINUED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL NEED
SOME TIME IF IT IS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY BY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
INCREASINGLY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST...THOUGH
THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR FASTER IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. THE FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS...ICON...AND THE ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BEYOND THAT TIME.

THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS FOR THE AREA FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND TO PEARL AND
HERMES.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.0N 174.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 174.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.1N 173.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 24.4N 172.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 27.2N 172.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 33.3N 172.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 38.6N 173.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[weathernerdguy]

This is massive.

[Yellow Evan]

So we're on track to see our 6th CPAC named storm?

Assuming everything goes as planned.

All that needs to happen is that this system needs to become a little more organized.

[supercane]

136
WTPA45 PHFO 200246
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST SAT SEP 19 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY
TODAY. LOW CLOUD VORTICES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ROTATING AROUND A MEAN
ELONGATED CENTER WITH A SHARP LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND A 2041 UTC
ASCAT PASS DETECTED NUMEROUS AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS WITHIN THIS BAND.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS
AGO...WITH HFO AND SAB COMING IN AT 2.0/30 KT AND JTWC AT 2.5/35
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL AGAIN BE HELD AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OR 15 DEGREES...
AT 7 KT. THIS MOTION REPRESENTS THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN
CENTER...WHICH HAS HAD INDIVIDUAL LOW CLOUD VORTICES BRIEFLY
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY THEN DISSIPATING. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN A BROAD...DEEP AND SLOWLY
DIGGING TROUGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AND SLOWLY GAIN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH INCREASES. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND BEYOND
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE DEEP TROUGH. THE DYNAMICAL AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ARE RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE TRACK...
ESPECIALLY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
IN FORWARD SPEED OF THE INDIVIDUAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE
TO THE GFEX AND TVCN.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGH. THE LATEST CIMSS
ANALYSIS AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS NEAR 25 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HOLD AROUND THIS
LEVEL THROUGH ROUGHLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...THE WINDOW FOR FIVE-C TO STRENGTHEN IS LIMITED...AND THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE STOPPED PREDICTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BY 24 HOURS...THEN HOLDS THE SYSTEM STEADY STATE AS IT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY
SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN SHIPS BUT IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN ICON IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME RANGE...MAINLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM
AGGRESSIVELY.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS POSTED FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND TO PEARL AND HERMES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.6N 174.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.2N 173.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 23.6N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 26.1N 172.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 28.6N 172.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 33.7N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0000Z 39.6N 177.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED


FORECASTER WROE

391
WTPA35 PHFO 200245
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST SAT SEP 19 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 174.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM NW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO PEARL AND HERMES.

[Extratropical94]

Center is exposed and the remaining convection is sheared off to the east.

It's like someone put some Atlantic over there.

[Darvince]

Center is exposed and the remaining convection is sheared off to the east.

It's like someone put some Atlantic over there.

Last night every single tropical disturbance or storm had an exposed center except for Krovanh and 90B.

I hope this thing makes Malia, even if for just a few hours.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FIVE-C HAS IMPROVED JUST A BIT SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING JUST TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT...AS INDICATED BY BOTH UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0 FROM
PHFO/SAB AND 1.0 FROM JTWC. WE WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30
KT WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTH
AND EAST QUADRANTS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AND A LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE DEEP TROUGH. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS ADJUSTED
MODESTLY AT 72 AND 96 HOURS TO INCORPORATE INPUT FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH HWFI AND IVCN WHICH HAS
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24
HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM AT AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH
36 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IT...WHILE GFDI REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 50 KNOTS IN 48
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
48 HOURS...AND SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED THIS TRANSITION BEFORE 72
HOURS. THE 72 AND 96 HOUR INTENSITY AND 72 HOUR WIND RADII FORECASTS
WERE ALSO COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND TO PEARL AND HERMES HAS BEEN CANCELED AS THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THERE EAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 23.6N 173.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 25.3N 172.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 27.7N 172.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 30.4N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 33.4N 174.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 40.0N 177.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 47.1N 177.8E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Extratropical94]

Special advisory for a 5 kt increase
At least we have Malia now, number 6 this year in the CPAC.

TROPICAL STORM MALIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
200 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015

A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0827Z SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN A CLEAR
SLOT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED UNDER DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS FLARED UP IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS A RESULT...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C TO A
TROPICAL STORM AS OF 200 AM HST THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM
HAS THE NEXT NAME ON THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LIST...WHICH IS MALIA...
PRONOUNCED MAH-LEE-AH.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AT 500
AM HST THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER
THESE VULNERABLE LOW LYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1200Z 24.7N 171.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 26.0N 171.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 28.3N 172.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.0N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 35.0N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 43.4N 175.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0600Z 50.0N 172.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[HURAKAN]

6th named storm of the season

[supercane]

WTPA45 PHFO 211504
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION /LLCC/ OF FIVE-C MOVED CLOSER
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER TONIGHT. ABOUT THE SAME TIME...GALE
FORCE WINDS BECAME EVIDENT IN AN 0827Z SCATTEROMETER PASS. ONCE THIS
BECAME EVIDENT...A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 1200Z TO UPGRADE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C TO TROPICAL STORM MALIA...PRONOUNCED
MAH-LEE-AH. ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATION FOR THIS CHANGE IN STATUS OF
THE SYSTEM WERE THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC AND HFO...AND 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB.
THE 1200Z UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 2.2/32 KT. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF MALIA IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025
DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
SYSTEM ARE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FAR TO THE WEST NEAR LONGITUDE
173E...AND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MALIA IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH INCREASING
SPREAD FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE 36 HOUR
POSITION WAS ACCELERATED AND SHIFTED TO THE LEFT. THIS WAS DONE TO
BLEND WITH THE 48...72 AND 96 HOUR POSITIONS THAT WERE COORDINATED
WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF FIVE-C WERE WELL IN EXCESS OF 30 KT FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS
INCREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH GRADUAL COOLING OF THE OCEAN WATER
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT CONTENT UNDER THE FUTURE TRACK OF MALIA ARE
LIKELY DETRIMENTAL TO THE LONG TERM HEALTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A WARM
CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING SHEAR HAS LIKELY
PRODUCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A LARGE CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN MALIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED MORE THAN 500
NM TO THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS. AS A RESULT...THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM EVEN IF CONVECTION
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MALIA WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
NOW SHOWING THIS WILL HAPPEN BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE LATEST OPC INPUT
INDICATES THIS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 36 AND 48
HOURS. THE 48...72 AND 96 HOUR INTENSITY...AS WELL AS THE 48 AND 72
HOUR 34 KT WIND RADII FORECASTS WERE ALSO COORDINATED WITH OPC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY OF THESE VULNERABLE LOW LYING ISLANDS AND
ATOLLS INTO TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 25.1N 171.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 26.6N 171.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 172.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 33.0N 174.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 38.4N 176.5E 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z 43.9N 173.3E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1200Z 50.4N 169.9E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

870
WTPA35 PHFO 211449
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MALIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015

...TROPICAL STORM MALIA PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE CENTRAL PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 171.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF MARO REEF
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

[supercane]

279
WTPA45 PHFO 212054
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
1100 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015

THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE MORNING SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE WEST OF A PERSISTENT AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS MALIA CONTINUES TO BE
IMPACTED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT
ACCORDING TO SHIPS AND THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL
AS CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MALIA IS TURNING TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS SET AT NORTH AT 14 KT. THIS STEERING FLOW IS BEING
PRODUCED BY A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG 173E AND
A DEEP RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. MALIA WILL MAKE A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE FORWARD SPEED
OF THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE AND RUNS ALONG A RELATIVELY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE GFEX
THROUGH 48 HOURS. GUIDANCE DIVERGES THEREAFTER WHEN MALIA IS
FORECAST TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. GIVEN THE EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
THIS MORNING AND THE EXPECTATION THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
HOLD...THE STRENGTHENING TREND WAS SCALED BACK SLIGHTLY...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WAS ALSO
SPED UP SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF MALIA
DISSIPATING ABOVE 850 MB...ROUGHLY 5000 FT...BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 48
HOURS AND BEYOND...THE FORECAST WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED LATER TODAY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 27.0N 171.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 28.5N 171.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.0N 172.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 34.8N 174.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 39.6N 179.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 45.5N 175.0E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 52.0N 172.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[supercane]

302
WTPA45 PHFO 220256
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST MON SEP 21 2015

THE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AND THE
PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS EXPANDED TO OVER
150 MILES UNDER RELENTLESS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND
35 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS AND SHIPS. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT PASS AT 2147
UTC REVEALED A BROAD AREA OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
AND WITHIN A TRAILING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. WHILE DVORAK FINAL T NUMBERS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS...CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND HFO REMAINED AT
2.5/35 KT...AND JTWC DROPPED TO 2.0/30 KT. GIVEN THE RECENT ASCAT
DATA...WHICH WAS ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE WIND RADII...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.

THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF MALIA TOOK AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...LEADING TO AN INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...AT 10 KT. THE STEERING BECAME A BIT
MORE COMPLEX AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECAME MORE INFLUENCED BY A
DEEP RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
MOTION IS AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE ALONG 173E. MALIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION AS IT INCREASINGLY
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST...AND SOME
ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
GIVEN RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RUNS ALONG THE LEFT HAND
SIDE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR THE GFS THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE
FORECAST WAS CONDUCTED IN COLLABORATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER /OPC/.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER MALIA UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION WAS AGAIN SPED UP AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF MALIA OPENING UP ABOVE 850 MB...ROUGHLY
5000 FT...WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE POST TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO ICON AND WAS COORDINATED
WITH OPC AFTER 24 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED
35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS TRAILING BAND WILL LIKELY AFFECT MARO REEF AND
POSSIBLY LAYSAN THIS EVENING.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 27.5N 172.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 29.3N 173.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 32.8N 175.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/1200Z 37.2N 178.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0000Z 40.7N 178.5E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 46.6N 173.6E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED


FORECASTER WROE

[EquusStorm]

Almost as sheared as Ida, and likely not going to last much longer, but am thrilled to see the home-grown storm count for the CPAC keep growing, extending the record a little bit. It's been a season to remember in that basin.

[wxman57]

Quite a bit more sheared than Ida. Weak swirl of a LLC is over 200 miles NW of dissipating convection. ASCAT from 9Z indicates no TS winds. CPHC's intensity was based on an ASCAT pass from yesterday afternoon (they admitted it was "dated"). It's a remnant low now - doesn't qualify for a TD with no convection within 200 miles of a weak swirl.