California/Southwest 2015-2016 Rainy Season

[Ntxw]

Suggested by NDG over in the ENSO thread I started this thread because due to the raging El Nino parts of California and the Desert Southwest are about the experience (in some cases have already experienced) significant and unusual out of season rainfalls. Most of the time weather is very tranquil in this part of the US however the upcoming months could prove out of the norm.

Images courtesy of Mike Ventrice and Ryanmaue from twitter

[Ntxw]

Discussion out of San Diego AFD.




.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

QUITE WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MONDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SKIES WERE COMPLETELY CLEAR OVER THE CWA AT 2 AM PDT. AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS FROM LINDBERGH SHOW A BACKING TREND OF THE WINDS BELOW 10K
FT AND SLIGHT WARMING NEAR THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. AT 3 AM PDT...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ONLY ABOUT 2 MBS TO THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND TRENDING OFFSHORE FROM NV AT AROUND 6 MBS. REMOTE WIND
GAGES SHOWED LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MTS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
WITH GUSTS BELOW 20 MPH.

LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS SHAPING UP...ESPECIALLY FAR
INLAND WHERE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THE OFFSHORE FLOW BETTER DEVELOPED ON
SUNDAY...REACHING CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...
BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUN...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER. PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND A FEW MILES INLAND FROM
THE COAST INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 12 TO 16
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THESE HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN ORGANIZING
CIRCULATION OF COLDER TOPS CENTERED NEAR 18N/114W...OR ABOUT 400
MILES SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS. BOTH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE CIRCULATION...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
CENTER. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVER NW SINALOA MEXICO AND
DRIFTED NORTH INTO SONORA OVERNIGHT. THESE HAD VERY COLD TOPS AND
MOVED RAPIDLY...SUGGESTIVE OF EXTREME INSTABILITY. PERHAPS WE WILL
SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. BLENDED TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS AREA IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. IF THEY
DO DEVELOP AGAIN...THEY MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

MODELS SHOW INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SUN INTO
MON SO A FEW STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCE WILL COME IN LATER MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS WAVE AS IT COMES NORTH...BOTH IN TIMING AND
TRACK. GENERALLY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
CORE INTO AZ...BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THAT CORE WEST. THE CORE CONTAINS 1.5 INCH/6 HOUR RAINFALL
RATES. REGARDLESS OF WHERE IT TRACKS...OUR PW IS FORECAST TO RISE TO
ABOVE TWO INCHES. CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE MUCH HEATING ON MON...BUT
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW SHOULD STILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR MODERATE SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE OF A
QUESTION AS DRYING DEVELOPS BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE ON SW WINDS ALOFT.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NE ON WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
REBUILD OVER THE SW...BRINGING RETURN OF SUMMARY...WARM WEATHER
THROUGH ABOUT FRI. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST MARINE
LAYER ALONG THE COAST. COOLER BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES DIPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.

[NDG]

Latest GFS total precipitation forecast over the next 5 days, wow!

[Kingarabian]

Great news for our Cali folks.

I got some family in SoCal and they really need that rain.

[Yellow Evan]

Great news for our Cali folks.

I got some family in SoCal and they really need that rain.

To be honest, they get most of their water from snowpack in the Sierras and Rockies. The jetstream may be too low for this.

[Ntxw]

Great news for our Cali folks.

I got some family in SoCal and they really need that rain.

To be honest, they get most of their water from snowpack in the Sierras and Rockies. The jetstream may be too low for this.

Yeah there's several ways to calculate drought. In Texas the hydrological drought is effected mostly during the rainy season. The water supply was dependent on these times to renew and lagged the reprieve of the soil drought. Probably the same here, these rains won't replenish the water supply just yet but will help soil and agriculture in the short term. What will be key will be the winter when the snow-pack develops in the Sierras..

[Darvince]

16E was a dummy and dove off well to the east of its forecasted track, resulting in minimal rain for California and anything west of 114W that isn't in mountains.

However, the front forecast to affect Texas should provide some mountain thunderstorms for Arizona, and long-range GFS shows tropical moisture from ex-Nora affecting Arizona and a shallow frontal system affecting SoCal at the same time.

[Darvince]

Phoenix

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST THU OCT 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN STATES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE DRY AND WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES BEFORE IT BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
COOLING AND RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...LATER
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW 100 FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS
SONORA...RESULTING IN A WARM VEERING PROFILE THROUGH THE MEAN LAYER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AS WARM AS 106 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN
PHOENIX...WHICH IS 1 DEGREE SHORT OF THE DAILY RECORD. DRYING TREND
ALSO CONTINUES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA AND AGAIN
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AZ. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE BEGINNING
OF A COOLING TREND IN RESPONSE TO LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES. FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX FRIDAY IS 98 DEGREES...WHICH MEANS THAT TODAY`S HIGH
MAY BE THE LAST 100+ DEGREE READING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. ADDITIONAL
COOLING IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
BECOMES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS PART OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR SEVERAL
DAYS MODELS HAVE HAD WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM ONE ANOTHER AND
QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN VARIATION ALONG WITH A LOT OF SPREAD
AMONGST THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH
HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT. WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN THE GFS HAS
PRETTY MUCH COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS IT AND THERE IS A LOT LESS SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS. THE GEM HAD BEEN CLOSER FOR SOME TIME ALREADY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS INCREASED. THE
POSITIONING OF THE LOW ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO ENABLES ENABLES NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM MARTY. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE THOUGH THEY DO AGREE ON
KEEPING DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 600 MB WITH MOISTURE EVEN MORE SHALLOW
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MEAGER CAPE BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT NOTABLE QPF OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS IS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH. DIV-Q FIELDS LOOK MODEST OVER OUR AREA
AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET. THE
ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF AND THAT MAY BE DUE TO HOW IT
ALSO FORECASTS A COUPLET OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER BUT RATHER THE COOLING ALOFT IS HIGHER UP. THAT IS BECAUSE THE
LOW DOES NOT CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BUT MOVES EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY PER COORDINATION AND IN ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF MOS TRENDS BUT
PERSISTENT DRY SLOT PATTERN KEEPS THE POPS FROM BEING HIGH. ONLY
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OUT ALTOGETHER
WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY WEAK
LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SLOW HEIGHT RISES. AS FOR
TEMPS...BC GRIDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE COOL ADVECTION SO
NUDGED THE HIGHS DOWNWARD A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALSO PUT IN
A SLOWER WARMUP. BREEZINESS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS...WILL KEEP MINS A BIT WARMER THAN WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN THE COOLER HIGHS.

San Diego

FXUS66 KSGX 012118
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
218 PM PDT THU OCT 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COOL WITH A
DEEP MARINE LAYER...HOWEVER SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF WARMUP.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH A LITTLE HIGHER TOTALS IN THE
MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOCAL SAN DIEGO
TO THE LOWER DESERTS GRADIENT RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 6 MB. WIND GUSTS
IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GAPS HAVE INCREASED
AS A RESULT WITH A FEW REPORTS AROUND 40 MPH ATTM. OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF US THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH BRISK GRADIENTS AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR SATURDAY IS NOW
LOOKING NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE SO THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN DUE TO A LARGE
DEEP LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW TO SWING THE LOW EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND SWING A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MODERATE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY COME IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO TIME INDIVIDUAL
WAVES OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS SO WE ARE INDICATING MODERATE
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH FROM THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE ONLY LIMITED BY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG COINCIDENT WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AS WELL WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE GAPS POSSIBLY
TOPPING 60 MPH.

MID NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY FEATURE BRISK ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATE
TEMPERATURES...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THAT PESKY EAST PAC RIDGE WILL
BUILD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PRONOUNCED WARMING
PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

[Hurricaneman]

Major mudslides in Southern California

[NDG]

Looks like more rains coming for California in 3-4 days thanks to Olaf.

[Darvince]

The raintrain is beginning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not sure if this is the correct thread or not, but Sipapu Ski Resort in northern NM just reported 23" of fresh snow and Red River Ski Resort reported 17". I did not expect to see a total quite that high at around 9k feet. Looks like the mountains of N NM had up to 2" liquid. I bet some peaks got well over 3' with 2" liquid and temps in the teens, though with 50 mph gusts there is no way to measure that.

[Darvince]

Very strong snow signal for the Sierra Nevada, good news for the drought.

[NDG]

At least Northern California is getting much needed rains but unfortunately Southern California will get very little of it over the next 10 days or so. CFSv2 is still persistent in southern Cali getting into the action starting in January.
CPC so far has busted big time, the Pacific NW has been much wetter than forecasted.

[Ntxw]

At least Northern California is getting much needed rains but unfortunately Southern California will get very little of it over the next 10 days or so. CFSv2 is still persistent in southern Cali getting into the action starting in January.
CPC so far has busted big time, the Pacific NW has been much wetter than forecasted.

Northern California and the high Sierras is where the rain is preferred. This is where the water dependent economy is. As long as they get a big snowpack all will be well. Southern California is semi-arid thus it will only take a couple of systems to bring them to normal. Of course with all the manmade lawns and gardens in SoCal they'd appreciate the watering too

[weatherdude1108]

Let's hope the snowpack grows this season and they can try to make up some of this water deficit, before a potential Super Nina forms.

[NDG]

PNA staying positive for a while, good news for southern California, will get much needed rain out of the active subtropical jet, hopefully it will be more beneficial than damaging.

[NDG]

GFS is very persistent in some very beneficial rains over the next couple weeks for CA and SW US, like I said hopefully they will be more beneficial than damaging.

[NDG]

I hope So Cal is ready for the next 7 days or so, it will be one storm after another one starting Sunday night.

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
421 AM PST SAT JAN 2 2016

...SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK...

...TIME TO GET SANDBAGS PLACED AND PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
MORNING AS A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS L.A./VTU COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A 990 MB SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NOCAL COAST. SYNOPTICALLY AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A REX BLOCK
SET UP WITH A 549 DM LOW WAS OVER NOCAL...WHILE A UNSEASONABLY WARM
572 DM HIGH WAS DIRECTLY NORTH OVER THE NRN WASHINGTON/IDAHO AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A 538 DM LOW WILL DEVELOP
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS EVENING. A WELL
DEVELOPED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SOME LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS N
OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL FOOTHILL RANGES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT. THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WELL DUE
TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. OJAI VALLEY AND SW
SAN FERNANDO COULD SEE SOME LOWS NEAR FREEZING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACKING OF THE NEXT FEW STORM SYSTEMS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MODEL RUNS...THE GFS NOW BRINGS MUCH OF THE RAIN THAT WAS HEADED
TOWARDS NRN BAJA INTO THE SOCAL BIGHT SUNDAY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. THE FRONT STALLS A BIT...SO SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
FOR MOST EVERYONE INLAND...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE
RAIN. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE COAST. SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN AREAS IF THE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY BY MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON FOR
MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6000 FT INITIALLY
FOR THIS FIRST WAVE. EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS FOR THIS FIRST PUNCH WILL
BE AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF INCH INCH FOR MOST COASTAL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA/VTU COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF INCH.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MULTIPLE
STORM SYSTEMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL BRING A POWERFUL STORM
SYSTEM TO SLO/SBA COUNTIES...THEN QUICKLY OVERSPREADS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE AN EFFICIENT
RAINMAKER FOR THE SW FACING SLOPES INCLUDING THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A HIGH
CHANCE FOR DEBRIS FLOWS TO OCCUR FOR RECENT BURN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FT WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY
AND ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE JUST ABOUT 2 FT TOTALS ABOVE 6000 FT BY
THE TIME THIS STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THAT STORM...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER WELL ESTABLISHED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DECENT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. THE DIFFERENCE
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE DIRECTION THAT THE UPPER LOW
TAKES. THIS WILL BE A COLDER SYSTEM...AND THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND REACH SOCAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 4500 TO 5500 FT
INITIALLY...THEN DROP TO AROUND 3500 FT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LOCALLY DOWN TO 3000 FT IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS
TRAVELING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TURN TO
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY AND THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN MONDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS...AND 2-5 INCHES
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LOCALLY TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
SW COASTAL SLOPES.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST SAT JAN 2 2016

...HIGH SURF FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BEACHES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...

...VERY LARGE DAMAGING SURF POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

.AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH SURF RESULTING FROM A SERIES OF LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
BEACHES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING HIGH SURF TO THE CENTRAL
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALONG THE BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN...AN EVEN LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BRING VERY
LARGE...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...SURF TO THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LARGE SURF MAY PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

CAZ039>041-087-021400-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0001.160104T1200Z-160108T0500Z/
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
CATALINA AND SANTA BARBARA ISLANDS-
325 AM PST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* HAZARDS...SURF IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND TO 6 TO 9 FEET BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VERY STRONG CURRENTS ARE CERTAIN.

* LOCATIONS...THE LARGEST SURF IS EXPECTED ON WEST FACING
BEACHES SUCH AS VENTURA HARBOR. HOWEVER...HIGH SURF WILL ALSO
AFFECT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

* IMPACTS...LARGE POWERFUL WAVES AND STRONG CURRENTS WILL CREATE
A RISK OF OCEAN DROWNING. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SUDDENLY OVERRUN
PREVIOUSLY DRY BEACHES AND JETTIES. FLOODING OF LOW LYING
BEACH PARKING LOTS...HARBOR WALKWAYS...AND CAMPGROUNDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH
AS PIERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TIDES WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH BY
MIDWEEK TO INCREASE THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS TO BEACH AND
SURF ZONE SAFETY ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. STAY NEAR OCCUPIED LIFEGUARD
TOWERS AND NEVER SWIM ALONE. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE SHORE.

&&

$$

HALL

[Ntxw]

3-5+ inches of rain up and down the coast of California and lots of mountain snows. We like to say in Texas all droughts end in a flood. #ElNino