ATL: IDA - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: IDA - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:28 am

Only models here.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:53 pm

12z Euro develops this to a TD/Weak Storm range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:12 pm

Certainly,95L has more support to be a named system than 93L.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2015 2:43 pm

12z ECMWF continues to develop 95L.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:06 pm

ECMWF continues to show a Hurricane with lowest pressure down to 976 mbs at 12z run.

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#6 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:41 pm

The 12Z ECMWF run from today brings this the furthest west of all runs so far though shows some weakening at the end, 168 hours below:

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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#7 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:46 pm

Two consecutive Euro runs showing a fairly strong system at days 9-10. I'm not buying it 100% but it's something to watch more than the models other failures, two of which were storms that weren't even projected to form until day 5-6, the other being Erika which everyone got wrong.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#8 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:30 pm

12z GFS went insane:

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#9 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:25 pm

as I said in the main thread, this is why we need explicit convection in the models.

BS FLAG! BS FLAG! Models are dead wrong here as the convective schemes are almost certainly overpowering the shear effects
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Re:

#10 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Sep 19, 2015 3:33 pm

Alyono wrote:as I said in the main thread, this is why we need explicit convection in the models.

BS FLAG! BS FLAG! Models are dead wrong here as the convective schemes are almost certainly overpowering the shear effects


Can you (or anyone else that understands) expand on what you mean by that, because you lost me, and I'd like to better understand what you mean by convective schemes.
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Re:

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 19, 2015 3:41 pm

Alyono wrote:as I said in the main thread, this is why we need explicit convection in the models.

BS FLAG! BS FLAG! Models are dead wrong here as the convective schemes are almost certainly overpowering the shear effects


Happened with Jimena. GFS and the Euro initially ignored the 50kt shear in its path and kept forecasting a hurricane near Hawaii.
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#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 19, 2015 5:00 pm

18z looks so far to be coming back down to reality after being off in it's own fantasy world for a few runs. This El Niño just won't let it's grip up one bit! :roll:
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#13 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 19, 2015 5:08 pm

MUCH weaker on the 18Z GFS run
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#14 Postby Riptide » Sat Sep 19, 2015 5:10 pm

In a surprising twist, the weakening may lead to conus impacts down the road.
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Re:

#15 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 19, 2015 5:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:MUCH weaker on the 18Z GFS run

Yeah at 150hrs. it is a very weak 1012mb low weakening fast I assume.

Man, this Record Strong El Niño is killing the fun! :x
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Sep 19, 2015 7:27 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:MUCH weaker on the 18Z GFS run

Yeah at 150hrs. it is a very weak 1012mb low weakening fast I assume.

Man, this Record Strong El Niño is killing the fun! :x



Still more to come. The El Nino is peaking or has peaked, take your pick, and the season will continue... IMHO.
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Re: Re:

#17 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 19, 2015 7:51 pm

WPBWeather wrote:Still more to come. The El Nino is peaking or has peaked, take your pick, and the season will continue... IMHO.


I don't see any indication that El Nino has peaked, in all likelihood it'll continue strengthening until winter.

As far as Ida goes (or anything tropical at all) I think the models are basically 100% useless, this'll be the fourth major the Euro has shown that doesn't even make hurricane.
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Re:

#18 Postby blp » Sat Sep 19, 2015 8:15 pm

Alyono wrote:as I said in the main thread, this is why we need explicit convection in the models.

BS FLAG! BS FLAG! Models are dead wrong here as the convective schemes are almost certainly overpowering the shear effects


Amazing to see these flaws coming out now. Thanks for insight. I would say we will see a good shift west again tomorrow. Center is racing west tonight.

http://i60.tinypic.com/2njjbxd.gif
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Re: Re:

#19 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 19, 2015 8:18 pm

Hammy wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:Still more to come. The El Nino is peaking or has peaked, take your pick, and the season will continue... IMHO.


I don't see any indication that El Nino has peaked, in all likelihood it'll continue strengthening until winter.

As far as Ida goes (or anything tropical at all) I think the models are basically 100% useless, this'll be the fourth major the Euro has shown that doesn't even make hurricane.


I wouldn't say useless but I know what you mean. They have been quite awful this year but I do feel the GFS has improved since last year so at least a step forward there, while the ECMWF has taken a step back.
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Re: Re:

#20 Postby blp » Sat Sep 19, 2015 8:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Hammy wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:Still more to come. The El Nino is peaking or has peaked, take your pick, and the season will continue... IMHO.


I don't see any indication that El Nino has peaked, in all likelihood it'll continue strengthening until winter.

As far as Ida goes (or anything tropical at all) I think the models are basically 100% useless, this'll be the fourth major the Euro has shown that doesn't even make hurricane.


I wouldn't say useless but I know what you mean. They have been quite awful this year but I do feel the GFS has improved since last year so at least a step forward there, while the ECMWF has taken a step back.


I just don't think the models have ever had to deal with such harsh conditions in the Atlantic like the last few years. Record dry air and record shear which are notorious difficult to forecast have wrecked havoc on the models. At some point you have to accept the limitations. We got spoiled years back when the models verified quite well during normal years.
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