2015 Global model runs discussion

[floridasun78]

too early to get hype with NW Caribbean and model let see what we have nw carribbean by late wed their not thing area now

[CourierPR]

too early to get hype with NW Caribbean and model let see what we have nw carribbean by late wed their not thing area now

There is some convection there now per latest satellite image.

[floridasun78]

i see upper low south haiti need move out for nw Caribbean be out shear

[gatorcane]

The global model runs today really were really not that enthusiastic on the NW Caribbean system. The 12Z ECMWF was the most bullish with a 1006MB low in the Central GOM in the long-range. Let's see what the overnight runs look like.

[LarryWx]

Gator et al,
Here is the very latest from Larry Cosgrove's free Sat evening newsletter:

"There remains the question, suggested by the ECMWF series, of an important tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico around September 29. Since the higher-than-normal 500MB height profiles should remain in Canada and much of the Arctic Circle, the possibility remains that shortwaves dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska might phase with a disturbance or at least pick up part of the moisture array. I suspect that some sort of upper air pattern transition will occur at some point between October 1 and 15, so a tropical feature could give a boost to a precipitation event and lead the way to cooler profiles east of the Rocky Mountains."

Any thoughts? One thing I can say is that LC was not as bearish on the overall season in terms of # of storms as many others were, including myself, before the season started. So, credit to him for that. OTOH, he was way too bearish on the current Niño, which he didn't think would still be in existence when looking at some of his forecasts a few months ago.

[floridasun78]

from miami weather office BY MID NEXT WEEK A MID LEVEL LOW IS STILL SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO DEVELOP AND CUT OFF THEN RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THIS CUT OFF LOW HAS
BEEN CHANGING AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW WET AND STORMY
IT GETS HERE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE STORMINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA
look say last part statement MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE STORMINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: Gator et al,
Here is the very latest from Larry Cosgrove's free Sat evening newsletter:

"There remains the question, suggested by the ECMWF series, of an important tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico around September 29. Since the higher-than-normal 500MB height profiles should remain in Canada and much of the Arctic Circle, the possibility remains that shortwaves dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska might phase with a disturbance or at least pick up part of the moisture array. I suspect that some sort of upper air pattern transition will occur at some point between October 1 and 15, so a tropical feature could give a boost to a precipitation event and lead the way to cooler profiles east of the Rocky Mountains."

Any thoughts? One thing I can say is that LC was not as bearish on the overall season in terms of # of storms as many others were, including myself, before the season started. So, credit to him for that. OTOH, he was way too bearish on the current Niño, which he didn't think would still be in existence when looking at some of his forecasts a few months ago.

LC had the best Pro Met handle on this season, IMO. His storm projections were more accurate than many well known others. He also downplayed the El Nino from the overhyped super and Godzilla nonsense too. He is not perfect, but he was one of the best for 2015.

[Steve]

Larry did pretty well, but a 2+ Enso event is pretty strong, has had a major influence on weather patterns, both in the tropics and subtropics too.

[Siker]

:uarrow: Gator et al,
Here is the very latest from Larry Cosgrove's free Sat evening newsletter:

"There remains the question, suggested by the ECMWF series, of an important tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico around September 29. Since the higher-than-normal 500MB height profiles should remain in Canada and much of the Arctic Circle, the possibility remains that shortwaves dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska might phase with a disturbance or at least pick up part of the moisture array. I suspect that some sort of upper air pattern transition will occur at some point between October 1 and 15, so a tropical feature could give a boost to a precipitation event and lead the way to cooler profiles east of the Rocky Mountains."

Any thoughts? One thing I can say is that LC was not as bearish on the overall season in terms of # of storms as many others were, including myself, before the season started. So, credit to him for that. OTOH, he was way too bearish on the current Niño, which he didn't think would still be in existence when looking at some of his forecasts a few months ago.

LC had the best Pro Met handle on this season, IMO. His storm projections were more accurate than many well known others. He also downplayed the El Nino from the overhyped super and Godzilla nonsense too. He not perfect, but he was one of the best for 2015.

The thing is, from what I've heard he downplayed the El Niño to the point of there not even being an El Niño. I don't see how calling it a Super Niño is nonsense; the usual definition of a Super Niño is >=2.0 ONI, which this Niño has a quite good chance of reaching.

[Steve]

Agreed. I like Larry a lot, so I'm not going to say he got close in spite of his forecast of whatever, but it would be a fair argument.

[Alyono]

do not even bother looking at the 0Z CMC. They should stick with running the ensemble and stop the deterministic run

[LarryWx]

Whereas the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) is certifiably insane with a quasistationary 974 mb hurricane just off of the SE coast on 9/29, the 0Z M.U. (GFS) is not all that much less insane with a TS hit on Miami from the east late on 9/30. Both models show a persistent and quite strong ridge centered over the NE Conus for a number of days prior to this resulting in a strong block and even a westerly steering flow on the M.U.

Next up: the King!

[Hammy]

For what it's worth, Euro moved up Cat 3 to 168 hours, from 240 hours on last run.

:uarrow: Whereas the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) is certifiably insane with a quasistationary 974 mb hurricane just off of the SE coast on 9/29, the 0Z M.U.

CMC seems to happen at some point, because that's about the only way that'll happen.

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, do you think something will form in the NW Caribbean?

I think some broad area of low pressure will form around the Yucatan area towards the end of this week and into next weekend. I'll let you know by this Wed. if it will form into something in the Southern Gulf . I give it around a 30% at the moment.

Looking at the GFS and ECMWF overnight runs, the models have switched places to some degree on their thinking for this possible NW Caribbean system.

The GFS develops a low around the Belize by hour 150 our so moves it north near the east coast of the Yucatan and then into the Southern Gulf where it turns NE into Florida. The low gets down to 1006MB in the SE Gulf.

The ECMWF develops a low a little later, around 168 hours and moves it north over the Yucatan and into the southern Gulf, where it heads NW and gets down to 1001MB just off the coast of LA in the long-range.

00Z ECMWF, 216 hours:


06Z GFS, 210 hours:


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[NDG]

:uarrow: Gator et al,
Here is the very latest from Larry Cosgrove's free Sat evening newsletter:

"There remains the question, suggested by the ECMWF series, of an important tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico around September 29. Since the higher-than-normal 500MB height profiles should remain in Canada and much of the Arctic Circle, the possibility remains that shortwaves dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska might phase with a disturbance or at least pick up part of the moisture array. I suspect that some sort of upper air pattern transition will occur at some point between October 1 and 15, so a tropical feature could give a boost to a precipitation event and lead the way to cooler profiles east of the Rocky Mountains."

Any thoughts? One thing I can say is that LC was not as bearish on the overall season in terms of # of storms as many others were, including myself, before the season started. So, credit to him for that. OTOH, he was way too bearish on the current Niño, which he didn't think would still be in existence when looking at some of his forecasts a few months ago.

LC had the best Pro Met handle on this season, IMO. His storm projections were more accurate than many well known others. He also downplayed the El Nino from the overhyped super and Godzilla nonsense too. He not perfect, but he was one of the best for 2015.

You are too funny, the fact is that LC busted big time, I remember him in the Spring calling for a La Nina to develop by late Summer.
YTD the Atlantic's Ace has not even reached 30, another forecast bust for him as well.

[Frank2]

An area of disturbed weather is persisting in the NW Caribbean since late last week. I wouldn't be surprised if gatorcane is correct...

[TheStormExpert]

Isn't the NW Caribbean supposed to be one of the many subregions that are very unfavorable for development?

[blp]

Isn't the NW Caribbean supposed to be one of the many subregions that are very unfavorable for development?

Yes if you go by climo during El Nino years and this years mega shear in the Carribean nothing should develop, but nobody predicted the favorable MDR east of 40. So you never know. I take these model runs as a general indication that we may have conditions to allow something to form. I don't think it will get strong due to all the negative variables this year but something to keep an eye on because their still is high SST and TCHP in that area.

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: Gator et al,
Here is the very latest from Larry Cosgrove's free Sat evening newsletter:

"There remains the question, suggested by the ECMWF series, of an important tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico around September 29. Since the higher-than-normal 500MB height profiles should remain in Canada and much of the Arctic Circle, the possibility remains that shortwaves dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska might phase with a disturbance or at least pick up part of the moisture array. I suspect that some sort of upper air pattern transition will occur at some point between October 1 and 15, so a tropical feature could give a boost to a precipitation event and lead the way to cooler profiles east of the Rocky Mountains."

Any thoughts? One thing I can say is that LC was not as bearish on the overall season in terms of # of storms as many others were, including myself, before the season started. So, credit to him for that. OTOH, he was way too bearish on the current Niño, which he didn't think would still be in existence when looking at some of his forecasts a few months ago.

LC had the best Pro Met handle on this season, IMO. His storm projections were more accurate than many well known others. He also downplayed the El Nino from the overhyped super and Godzilla nonsense too. He not perfect, but he was one of the best for 2015.

You are too funny, the fact is that LC busted big time, I remember him in the Spring calling for a La Nina to develop by late Summer.
YTD the Atlantic's Ace has not even reached 30, another forecast bust for him as well.

Don't laugh too hard...

Wise words from LC on 9/19: Ultimate Strength Of Current El Nino Likely To Fall Short Of 1982-83, 1997-98 Episodes; Best Analogs Are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73 and 1987-88

[Ntxw]

At least he is acknowledging it exists, he still needs to take in the fact his call for a Nina by Sept (it is about as far as it can be from that at 2.3C with the cpc odds of one at near 0% for this month) was wrong. It is like forecasting snow in Miami in July.