2015 Global model runs discussion

[tolakram]

I noticed the GFS 6z has a 978mb low hitting the panhandle with pressure dropping to 968mb by the time it reaches Arkansas. Way to go!

[Steve]

Isn't the NW Caribbean supposed to be one of the many subregions that are very unfavorable for development?

Often, but that patterns aren't static. The way this year has gone, and plenty of shear has come via flow out of the EPAC, you have a shot to have something form or come out of the WC. Really the entire Caribbean is mostly untouched. As we head into the transitional period that comes with early fall - pattern flips and evolution - I will be watching the south portions of the Basin for a chance at something coming up from a weak/crossover system, the BoC and the Western Caribbean. Clock is ticking on the season though. My best guess for the remaining western basin season (excluding off the SE Coast) would be 3 weeks, 4 at most. We hopefully all get lucky and have had a ton of storms to track albeit mostly duds that faded on their way across with no additional misery for anyone. But there is still a chance.

[Sanibel]

Seems like that would be the only chance.



The models are like false gods leading their people to false hope this year.

[TheStormExpert]

I noticed the GFS 6z has a 978mb low hitting the panhandle with pressure dropping to 968mb by the time it reaches Arkansas. Way to go!

I see no such thing?

[NDG]

LC had the best Pro Met handle on this season, IMO. His storm projections were more accurate than many well known others. He also downplayed the El Nino from the overhyped super and Godzilla nonsense too. He not perfect, but he was one of the best for 2015.

You are too funny, the fact is that LC busted big time, I remember him in the Spring calling for a La Nina to develop by late Summer.
YTD the Atlantic's Ace has not even reached 30, another forecast bust for him as well.

Don't laugh too hard...

Wise words from LC on 9/19: Ultimate Strength Of Current El Nino Likely To Fall Short Of 1982-83, 1997-98 Episodes; Best Analogs Are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73 and 1987-88

Of course he's going to downplay this current El Niño episode after his forecast busted.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS shows disturbed weather coming up from the west carib up along or near a frontal boundary in the EGOM with 40-70kts of shear nearby. Maybe a baroclinically enhanced subtropical like system?

[NDG]

12z GFS shows disturbed weather coming up from the west carib up along or near a frontal boundary in the EGOM with 40-70kts of shear nearby. Maybe a baroclinically enhanced subtropical like system?

That's the only way I see development in the GOM to happen, shear is not going anywhere.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I think the Gulf is the only game in town LA east if the current pattern continues

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Whereas the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) is certifiably insane with a quasistationary 974 mb hurricane just off of the SE coast on 9/29, the 0Z M.U. (GFS) is not all that much less insane with a TS hit on Miami from the east late on 9/30. Both models show a persistent and quite strong ridge centered over the NE Conus for a number of days prior to this resulting in a strong block and even a westerly steering flow on the M.U.

For entertainment: I'm sure this won't come as a shock to many but the 12Z CMC looks very different from the 0Z CMC mentioned in the quote above. It now just has a meandering weak low off of the SE coast for a week before moving SW into C FL next Sun (9/27) and falling apart. Meanwhile, this same run has the NW Caribbean low form on 9/27 from what appears to be remnants of an E PAC low moving N. This low then mills around and gets to the SW Gulf day 9/30 while another low forms sort of as an appendage of this on 9/28 and then moves N into the north central US Gulf coast 9/29 as a 1004 mb low.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_36.png

[tolakram]

I noticed the GFS 6z has a 978mb low hitting the panhandle with pressure dropping to 968mb by the time it reaches Arkansas. Way to go!

I see no such thing?

6Z run

[gatorcane]

12z GFS shows disturbed weather coming up from the west carib up along or near a frontal boundary in the EGOM with 40-70kts of shear nearby. Maybe a baroclinically enhanced subtropical like system?

12Z GFS wind-shear/upper-air pattern at 186 hours as the low moves north out of the Caribbean towards the SE Gulf with the low positioned on the NE tip of the Yucatan. That does looks like a possible baroclinically enhanced tropical or subtropical system with a massive upper-high almost on top of the low and high shear to the NW from the front - classic October-like track into the EGOM on the past two runs of the GFS. Note the GFS has been trending slightly stronger the past couple of runs.

[gatorcane]

Here is the 12Z GFS simulated IR at 210 hours with the low in the EGOM, which demonstrates a baroclinically enhanced low as it interacts with the front to the NW:

[blp]

An EPAC crossover would make a lot of sense. For anything significant to develop it needs to tap into that basins favorable energy. I think this may start on the EPAC side as maybe a depression and get pulled up.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has the W GOM surface low similar to the 0Z Euro..1004 mb on 9/28.

Edit: 1002 mb SE LA 9/29. Has kind of a ST look.

Heaviest rainfall through end of this run: 4" coastal AL to W FL Panhandle mainly on 9/29.

[blp]

Yep the Euro still on this with landfall over La. Getting more consistency out of the models now. Interesting...

[WeatherEmperor]

Yep the Euro still on this with landfall over La. Getting more consistency out of the models now. Interesting...

Add the Canadian to the list. Although it appears to landfall a touch further east perhaps near MS


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[gatorcane]

GFS Ensembles with a 1006MB area of low pressure around the tip of the Yucatan in the long-range:

[tolakram]

Is it tropical or non-tropical? Could it be a low riding up a front?

[LarryWx]

Hmm, the 192 hour 12Z JMA (for 9/28) has no surface low anywhere near where the GFS/CMC/Euro have it. The closest low this model has is a very weak (1011 mb) low east of the Bahamas moving west toward S FL:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_9.png

[blp]

Almost all the ensembles onboard with something happening.