CPAC: NIALA - Post-Tropical
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- jaguarjace
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CPAC: NIALA - Post-Tropical
96C INVEST 150921 0000 10.0N 141.6W CPAC 20 1005
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
2. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak low pressure area centered about 1075 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remains disorganized.
There may be a slight chance for tropical cyclone development with this area of unstable weather over the next couple of days as it moves slowly west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 10 percent.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- jaguarjace
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions will continue to support gradual development over the next couple of days as it moves slowly northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions will continue to support gradual development over the next couple of days as it moves slowly northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP962015 09/21/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 33 43 52 58 65 68 72 74
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 33 43 52 58 65 68 72 74
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 28 33 41 51 61 69 78
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 7 4 5 8 13 12 15 14 15 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -7 -7 -6 -6 -6 -4 -1 -4 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 149 161 164 169 160 111 39 54 64 54 56 48 29
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 159 159 159 158 157 155 152 153 153 154 152
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 70 71 71 68 65 64 62 63 61 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 9 9 12 12 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 6 10 13 18 13 11 18 30 35 40 39
200 MB DIV 47 56 60 69 69 74 43 23 28 29 31 20 0
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
LAND (KM) 1729 1644 1560 1490 1421 1299 1202 1118 1092 1107 1116 1071 1006
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.0 11.9 11.8 12.0 12.6
LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.2 144.1 144.8 145.6 146.7 147.6 148.2 148.2 148.1 148.1 148.5 148.7
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 0 1 1 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 23 19 18 18 17 22 27 28 28 28 28 27 24
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 23. 32. 38. 45. 48. 52. 55.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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- 1900hurricane
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Not a bad looking invest.
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- Extratropical94
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Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remains somewhat disorganized. Environmental conditions will continue to support development over the next few days as it moves slowly northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C
Yellow Evan wrote:[code] * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP962015 09/21/15 12 UTC *
I'm thinking it does have a solid chance at making hurricane status. Although GFS and Euro not doing much with it anymore.
This is crazy. Our 7th named storm on the way for the CPAC.
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2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii are increasing in organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP962015 09/22/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 41 51 61 69 74 77 79 82 85
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 41 51 61 69 74 77 79 82 85
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 38 47 58 70 82 91 97 103 107
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 10 10 8 13 11 14 12 12 8 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -7 -7 -7 -4 -6 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 138 128 103 117 121 63 61 59 57 72 85 100 106
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 157 156 154 154 153 154 154 154 152
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 67 71 73 71 69 66 60 61 61 59 56 56 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14
850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 13 14 23 19 15 20 24 28 30 52 48
200 MB DIV 60 71 75 77 80 58 47 51 50 31 -6 6 -3
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 2
LAND (KM) 1545 1479 1414 1368 1322 1245 1197 1195 1210 1210 1164 1101 1007
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 144.4 145.0 145.7 146.1 146.5 147.1 147.3 147.1 146.9 146.9 147.2 147.5 147.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 3 1 1 0 1 3 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 19 21 25 29 30 30 30 32 30 24
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 36. 44. 49. 52. 54. 57. 60.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/22/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
We could have a major if these shear forecast verify
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- Kingarabian
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- Extratropical94
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Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 930 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continue to develop and show signs of organization periodically. Although the thunderstorms have weakened and decreased in coverage through the day today, environmental conditions remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
Still a high chance for development though. But them being the CPHC, they can do jumps in formation probability like no other agency (e.g. Malia's 50% -> 30% -> 90%).
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
Still a high chance for development though. But them being the CPHC, they can do jumps in formation probability like no other agency (e.g. Malia's 50% -> 30% -> 90%).
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2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to develop and show signs of organization. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
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- jaguarjace
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 22 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have changed little in organization during the last several hours.
Environmental conditions will remain conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 22 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have changed little in organization during the last several hours.
Environmental conditions will remain conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
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- Yellow Evan
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1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have increased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C
Not bad at all.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
- 1900hurricane
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Those microwave images show something that looks classifiable to me.
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- Extratropical94
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8am HST TWO: Did they even change a single word?
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have increased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have increased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
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