ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:24 am

Image

A large non-tropical low pressure system located about 250 miles
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the center.
Although upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development, this system could possibly acquire
subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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#2 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:30 am

This is a surprise, I thought they gave up on EC development.
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#3 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:39 am

97L may have some impacts on the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic coast. Might get a subtropical system out of this after all.
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#4 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:29 am

Actually has quite a bit more convection than the last incarnation of the EC low-with-subtropical-potential. Doesn't seem to have much time at all to get its act together though; needs to organize fast if it wants to be the first Atlantic cyclone to be christened Joaquin.

Looking more closely, I'm actually pretty impressed with this thing. It's gotten its act together; if it can stay offshore and in favorable conditions long enough, I'm intrigued to see what becomes of it.

Image
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#5 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:50 am

:uarrow: Yeah, it is drifting slowly westward. It is Alain over near the Gulf Stream and I think it may have just enough time to potentially organize into a subtropical system. I would not completely discount this to transition to tropical. I have seen systems similar to this gradually become tropical in nature in past years i.e. Beryl in 2012 which eventually made landfall here.

Definitely the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region needs to watch this system the next couple of days as they may see some effects from whatever becomes of 97L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby GlennOBX » Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:41 am

97L is creating all kinds of fun here...

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...DANGEROUS SHOREBREAK...AND A HIGH THREAT
OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY. THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* HAZARDS...MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...DANGEROUS SHOREBREAK AND HIGH
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

* LOCATION...NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 9 FEET.

* TIMING AND TIDES...ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF LOW TIDE...WHICH OCCURS AROUND 8 AM AND 9
PM TODAY.

* IMPACTS...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WHO
ENTERS THE SURF. MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING STRONG SHORE BREAK...DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION.
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#7 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:01 am

Isn't this the old 96L?
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#8 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:02 am

97L has quite a bit of vorticity.

Image
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#9 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:07 am

Here is a visible loop, you can see a nice swirl east of the convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30.5&lon=-80.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:27 am

Panama that is a seperate vortice. I can see multiple vortices.

Now there seems to be a llc forming near the dominant convection to the north of that one. Around 34.5 N 73 W is my best guess.

That would be in the gulf stream is that is right in 85 plus water. Btw H20 at the beach is between 78 and 80, unusally warm.

Don't see much chance for tropical development. But it sure is messing up our beaches. Whatever it is it needs to move outta here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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#11 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:33 am

Outerbanker: Here is that area, I can kind of see what you are talking about.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=34.5&lon=-73.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:09 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:Isn't this the old 96L?


Seems like the same area of disturbed weather, but vorts have come and gone. From there you could trace it back to the remnants of Grace over a week ago viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117559
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:10 am

Will it form or get sheared down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:26 am

Morehead radar

Image
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#15 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:41 am

Convection continues to expand over 97L and to my eyes it appears that the LLC is trying to get tucked underneath the convection. Based on the latest trends, I think NHC will increase the percentages for subtropical development. I still would not totally rule out 97L transitioning down to tropical characteristics as remember the system is currently right near the Gulf Stream. Also, it is moving very slowly right now, and the sliw movement may allow 97L to sit and stew over the Gulf Stream and organize. Interesting system.
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#16 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:03 pm

:uarrow: Strange because the upper level wind shear is quite high.
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#17 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:25 pm

Its a complex environment, how many vorts can you count?

Image
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#18 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:39 pm

Frontal map indicating two lows. One by the small swirl southeast of South Carolina and the other near the convection east of North Carolina.

Image
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#19 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:45 pm

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast
to move westward, and only slight development is anticipated before
the system moves inland in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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#20 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:02 pm

This must be what's forecasted to become a nor'easter/coastal storm this weekend. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ca ... -and-when/
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