Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

HRRR converges the cluster coming out of Oklahoma and storms building out wnw this afternoon with good coverage of rain for North Texas. Which model had that?

It didn't rain, just light showers this evening across some parts. But feels good out there like Brent mentioned. High of 88 today was after noon then cooled the rest of the day.

[TheProfessor]

We had a high of 70 today, but there was a cool east wind here all day today. I felt a bit chilly after I worked out on my walk back to the dorm.

[dhweather]

The last hoorah ?

[Texas Snowman]

From Fort Worth NWS this morning:

"BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE A DETACHED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR
SOUTHERN STATES WILL GO AND ITS EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT
WEEK. 75"

[dhweather]

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!@#!@#!@$

[weatherdude1108]

The last hoorah ?

Speaking of last hoorahs, our local office mentioned something in their last paragraph this morning about considerable differences in the models.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 211801 AAA
AFDEWX

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS NOW DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS FEATURE AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL DATA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL GO WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A VERY
GRADUAL COOL DOWN.

This stubborn ridge (or non death ridge per Porta's earlier comments referencing 2011 and infamous La Nina's ) has been in place since early July down here.

I think the stubborn ridge pattern caught a lot of us by surprise (me included) this August and September with the El Nino in place, with Nino expectations hinging on predictions of less of a ridge influence based on the historical record. Didn't happen. Grrr.

[weatherdude1108]

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!@#!@#!@$

[Tireman4]

Ok. I am conflicted..obviously...my emotional side has had it with this gunk. It is:

Partly Cloudy
89°F
32°C
Humidity 53%
Wind Speed E 9 mph
Barometer 29.93 in (1014.0 mb)
Dewpoint 70°F (21°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 94°F (34°C)
Last update 21 Sep 2:53 pm CDT

Heat Index of 94...ughh.....late September....killing my running...

Now the mete0rological side of me says...it will cool down. It has too. It starts to really knock off by September 30, the average high is 86 and normal low is 65..so see...it is coming...ughhh

[Texas Snowman]

From Fort Worth NWS this afternoon:

"NEXT WEEK COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...IT WILL
REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY."

[TarrantWx]

It's still 10 days out, but the GFS has a cold front coming through next Thursday knocking highs into the 70s and lows into the 50s for DFW. Maybe there is some hope on the horizon?

[Brent]

Bottom line is it has to end soon.. Its late September the averages are dropping steadily the days are shorter every day and climo says it has to :p

I am shocked it has gone on this long with this el nino tbh

[horselattitudesfarm]

What is interesting is the intensifying drought here in North Carolina even with a raging El Nino. The last bad droughts of 2002 and 2008 both spawned and intensified during La Nina patterns. Drought is expanding into much of the southeast and is likely to connect to expanding drought in Texas.

[Ntxw]

What is interesting is the intensifying drought here in North Carolina even with a raging El Nino. The last bad droughts of 2002 and 2008 both spawned and intensified during La Nina patterns. Drought is expanding into much of the southeast and is likely to connect to expanding drought in Texas.

The Texas flash drought of this summer will be eliminated by the end of winter. The El Nino eliminated the multiyear drought in weeks earlier in the year, it can do it again just as quickly.

The drought in the southeast is related to lack of hurricane/tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. It makes up a good part of the rains during the wet season there, thus far has been nonexistent.



Latest Euro weeklies are out and it beats the same drum it's been trying to show. 500mb weakness will set up shop over Texas and Oklahoma after this week. Then the central conus trof kicks in and locks in. Look for a stormy and wetter pattern to ensue.

Autumnal Equinox is almost here, daylight hours are becoming less. Watch the weather pattern the first two weeks of October, often it can help give hints as to what the rest of the cold season may bring as the seasonal jets moves south.

[Brent]

Take with a grain of salt but... from The Weather Channel:



The Texas heat ridge relocates to the east coast?

[JDawg512]

I've started to become a little skeptical looking at these models because it looked like we were finally reaching the end of the tunnel two weeks back then this stubborn ridge returned. Although, as others have already said, the seasons are changing and it's just a matter of time. I'd still like to see some consistency before I get too excited.

[TarrantWx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z GFS holds on to the idea of the cold front next Thursday. 70s for highs and 50s for lows in DFW

[weatherdude1108]

Here is the experimental outlook from the CPC, Oct. 3rd through Oct. 16th:

[TheProfessor]

Usually I would say I do not like that map, but above normal here means a bit toasty but tolerable 75-80 degrees instead of that yucky 90+

[ravyrn]

TeamPlayersBlue- Total points (8 pts) <-Current leader
IAH - 9/22 (8)
AUS- 9/19
DFW - 9/10

ravyrn- Total points (13 pts)
IAH - 9/27 (13)
AUS - 10/13
DFW - 9/26

The 9/10 in DFW is biting you in the butt now

[CaptinCrunch]

Well my seasonal firewood gets delivered this Saturday, so if it goes as it did last year then 2 weeks from Saturday the weather will turn much cooler and wetter. last year I had my firewood delivered late October and 2 weeks after it got much colder, by Nov 11th we had a high of 66, and on the 13th our high was (38). That was the week of high's in the lower 40's and our first official freeze (31) at DFW on the 12th, and a low of (22) on the 18th of November.