ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[Bizzles]

Hooray for some excitement!

This thing is in some unusually warm water, the coastal waters from the Carolinas to NJ have been up for a few weeks now.

[emeraldislenc]

Out of the office all day and just saw it is an invest. Sorry about the earlier post on the talking tropics page.

[OuterBanker]

We were in a slight drought situation. Not much rain lately.

According to gfs that should end this week.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPhXHvBWcAAF3ml.png

And everyone laughed at my ark in the driveway.

[emeraldislenc]

It is a breezy day here this afternoon. A few scattered rain showers. But it looks like more rain may be on the way!

[xironman]

This must be what's forecasted to become a nor'easter/coastal storm this weekend. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ca ... -and-when/

I have no idea why Jason pushed that one out just before today's Euro run, when it was so Euro dependent...

To add to the drama, the European model shifted the storm quite a bit south and then out to sea, giving us a mostly dry weekend!

[OuterBanker]

Well, well. We're back to all models different. No agreement on anything. Tower of babble. Seems to me that no model or human knows what to do with this year.

[northjaxpro]

Very complex set-up. Multiple vortices indicated on visible satellite, including a vort southeast of the coast of South Carolina drifting slowly southwest.

[OuterBanker]

We will have to see if the POD changes for tomorrow. But todays POD was sending them tomorrow to both areas it looks like.

It is the only way to see whats really going on.

[xironman]

Well, well. We're back to all models different. No agreement on anything. Tower of babble. Seems to me that no model or human knows what to do with this year.

It has been 20 years since we had a Nino like this, so it will be a learning experience.

[tatertawt24]

I would love for this to become another Sep 25 2008. <3 That was the best birthday present ever. Strong rain and wind for like two days but not enough to cause damage.

[NDG]

Nothing new, what would you expect with 30-50 knots of windshear over this disturbance, El Nino '15 wins again, move along people

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, NDG, you have been on here preaching about the conditions lol.. but you are right. Shear, Shear , Shear... It has been overwhelming in a strong EL NINO this season. Personally, I am gearing up for the winter season, which will likely be cool and stormy for us in Florida.

Latest shear analysis. No wonder these systems are not developing out there. Look at the shear along the SE Atlantic coast and over 97L.. 30-50kts of shear, as NDG pointed out.

Ready for the Fall/Winter season to kick into gear.

[NDG]

I am thinking it could be quite a severe wx winter for central and southern FL.

[Hurricaneman]

I can't see this becoming tropical but it could reak havoc on the shores of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas

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[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: I am thinking it could be quite a severe wx winter for central and southern FL.

Yeah, based on the strength of this EL NINO, we could be in for quite a wild ride with stormy weather from Mother Nature this winter across the peninsula.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

A local Met is saying that this is non-tropical and will push south to Georgia by the weekend.

[LarryWx]

The southern LLC of 97L (1010 mb per CHS NWS) looks like it has been pretty stationary over the last few hours about 90 miles ESE or E of St. Augustine. It keeps generating convection near its center over the very warm Gulf Stream, but fortunately (from the perspective of those that don't want ST or tropical development since it looks to be headed to the coast) there's significant SSW shear persisting. With this low projected by all models to move W or WNW to the coast tomorrow due to easterly steering flow underneath the high to its north, the tight little gradient might be just strong enough to kick up the surface winds along a portion of the S SC, GA, and far NE FL coasts later tonight into tomorrow and should also bring in a nice batch of showers and thunderstorms for some of the same areas. Interesting little system to track. Compared to what the models have had the last few days as of the current time, this surface low is some 150 miles south of that consensus.

[northjaxpro]

Larry, we are getting impacts by that LLC you mentioned above here in the Jacksonville area. Parts of Jacksonville and the coastal areas have received up to near 4 inches of rain this evening as the moist northeast flow is bringing in heavy bands of rain from off the Atlantic. We have also had northeast windsgusting to ovrt 30 mph along the coast this evening. May have seen possible development were it not for the shear.

[LarryWx]

Larry, we are getting impacts by that LLC you mentioned above here in the Jacksonville area. Parts of Jacksonville and the coastal areas have received up to near 4 inches of rain this evening as the moist northeast flow is bringing in heavy bands of rain from off the Atlantic. We have also had northeast windsgusting to ovrt 30 mph along the coast this evening. May have seen possible development were it not for the shear.

Thanks for posting! Wow, between this and the rain of last week, haven't you or some other areas near you had nearly 10" total? Please post more later or tomorrow if you have any interesting updates. 30 mph represents quite a windy night there already. Are you near the coast or closer to the city?
Yes, I agree about what could have been considering the very warm water as well as dewpoints along the NE FL coast being in the tropical 72-74 range. Then again, "what could have been" is probably more common than what actually becomes something significant. Regardless, this is fun to track and at the same time not much to worry about tropical developmentwise.

Edit: Consistent with radar and satellite pics showing it near stationary now, the 0Z GFS has slowed down the arrival of the center on the coast. It doesn't have that occur til near 8 AM Friday but progged SSW shear is 20-30 knots through the period. It has the center come ashore near Jacksonville Beach.

[rickybobby]

Larry, we are getting impacts by that LLC you mentioned above here in the Jacksonville area. Parts of Jacksonville and the coastal areas have received up to near 4 inches of rain this evening as the moist northeast flow is bringing in heavy bands of rain from off the Atlantic. We have also had northeast windsgusting to ovrt 30 mph along the coast this evening. May have seen possible development were it not for the shear.

Don't know if this has anything to do with it but it poured really hard for 3 minutes in Port Orange. Lost power for about 5 seconds. It's drizzling right now. No wind.